Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1979. (Read 3313076 times)

Better tech is not a huge part of the equation for me, after all, that can be debatable and needs to be proven after many attacks, which BTC has endured.

There are government and banking laws to consider, as they in large part will affect the price (depending on many factors of cousrse).

Since Monero is not based on BTC, I would imagine that affects adoption in the early going.

I would not be completely shocked if another Crypto outside of BTC is the new number one bit in 5 years or so. In the meantime, spread your eggs wisely and this is coming from a HUGE Monero believer and supporter.

For me it is Monero or fiat. I personally do not need bitcoin anywhere and I am not particularly interested in libertarian ethos of how central banks are evil and therefore we need this and that.
Pricewise, in order for btc it needs new people adapting it. At least following local community all I hear speaking in the forums are the owners of btc companies (localbitcoins and bittiraha.fi). Hardly no new people adapting btc.
When I am talking about  btc to fiat people, all they remember are scams (gox etc.) and the fact that btc train has left the station.
Not to mention the whole idea of btc is stupid: i convert my fiat to btc in order to pay a cup of coffee while it would be easier to do it simply throwing a few coins to cashier.

^ I totally agree.

In fact, what i see is that bitcoin will go mainstream, get even more centralized and regulated (unfortunately), and hopefully monero will be at 1-5% of bitcoin's marketcap.

Please, let us not be like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIasr2AiyZ0

Small steps at a time...

Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and massive adoption, no altcoin even comes close. To overtake bitcoin we'll need something that is as revolutionary as bitcoin is to the fiat/banking system. Monero is not that.

If minor improvements is all that it takes, we will soon enough see monero outcompeted by other currencies. Who's to say there won't be a zerocash type currency coming out where the parameteres are generated in a trusted manner? Suddenly everyone will flock to "the next big thing". Switching quickly between currencies like that means the storage of value is lost, nobody would use USD if they knew next month USD 2.0 will come out and their USD 1.0 will quickly decline in value. And then month after that USD 3.0 comes out with same result. This would be horrible for the ecosystem (and that without mentioning the huge costs of infrastructure change), and I don't think this will happen.

Monero serves a purpose, but for the majority of people the anonymity offered by monero isn't a revolution compared to bitcoin. Even if it was, bitcoin could implement it. That applies to any altcoin, too much is invested in bitcoin to let it be outcompeted. If there appears to be a serious threat, bitcoin will adapt.

It may turn out to be the case that bitcoin never goes anonym like monero. This could put a lot of pressure of it's back from governments that will instead be directed at monero and other anonymous currencies. Maybe that's a good thing.

Keep in mind that sidechains are coming, those could potentially make monero obsolete.

I realize this is swearing in the church, I like monero very much, but let's not get delusional. It's future success is not set in stone. I think at best monero can be a high liquid altcoin like LTC has been, and work as a complimentary currency to bitcoin. It may be, that bitcoin takes the spot as mainly storage of value, like gold is today. And that monero takes the spot as transactional currency. But it will never be the #1 crypto. That ship has sailed.

Wasn't Litecoin at it's peak about $1 billion vs Bitcoin at the time around $10 billion?
Now look at Litecoin...

Monero is surprisingly close to that actually.
"Only" 25 times.

Silver coins also don't have an appreciable economy. But if fiat, banks and Internet fail, it does not take long for such to form, because silver becomes the good with the highest score in "monetary attributes" column.

Similarly, there is no pressing need to develop an economy for an alt as long as Bitcoin is around. Also one of the attributes of money is marketcap, which for XMR is laughably small (but going into the right direction )

I was only 100% XMR but I have recently bought more btc so make that 90%.

I am not a whale and the total cost of all the btc I bought is less than 0





Now you tell me

monero  have still no economy right?

If any alt reaches about 10-20% of Bitcoin's marketcap, Bitcoin is doomed in such a great probability that I'll sell mine (in favor of the alt).

why?
Do we still use vhs or has dvds overtaken?

I  agree, Monero has not even started getting wider adoption. Selling now is selling monero with peanuts.
My strategy to sell is when others than the currwnt community is buying the coin.
if you sell now the coins will go to the stromgest hands and you may not be able to get those coins back.

comon, i dont think it  can overtake bitcoin any time

Guy in Romania had his house hit by meteors like 3 times over the years.    How much would you have bet against that?  Selling XMR below 1 BTC requires, in my mind, a reason why the utility of XMR will remain inferior to that of BTC over the long run.  But in fact, its utility is superior in the most important dimensions, and very likely to improve dramatically in the superficial ones understood by trampstamps and bronies, as funds for development are freed up by rising market cap.   And if it can go to 1 BTC, it can certainly go to 10 BTC.   Doesn't mean one should buy it though. 

It's the conventional wisdom, the result of cognitive dissonance in us old timers' heads from getting used to the recent regime of low prices and now being thrust into a stampeding bull market.

Since the 'overbought' opinion is so prevalent, it's probably wrong.   

I was 50/50 in 0.001 XMR, now I have to decide between rebalancing or letting it ride.  Damn you, 1st world problems!

I have only fractions in btc.
For me btc serves only as a gateway towards xmr, hence I am pretty sceptical if we see ath in btc anymore. It is pissible but day by day it looks more distant to me. So I have put my money where my mouth is.

Being better tech than Bitcoin, I'd expect a more than 1:0.1 ratio at some point. After that, maybe we will have to witness a new paradigm (ie: the first alt to threat bitcoin's reign). Again, a long shot.

Why do you think that?

The .01 ratio can happen overnight but I imagine in the next 3 months or so we see it happen.
My extreme high end ratio would involve unforseen forces as I can't see under normal circumstances that happening. But then again, when the public moves into Crypto en masse, all bets are off 

What timeframe are you looking at?