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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1983. (Read 3313076 times)

legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 05:51:39 AM

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 31, 2015, 05:19:49 AM
The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
...snip

It's not being bearish- it's realistic long term view after watching many coins for a few years.
Sure monero can hit 10$,100$ ,1000$  maybe even more- EVENTUALLY.
Talk like that because of a 30% rise in day just brings disappointment in the short term.

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 05:05:37 AM
The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
...snip

It's not being bearish- it's realistic long term view after watching many coins for a few years.
Sure monero can hit 10$,100$ ,1000$  maybe even more- EVENTUALLY.
Talk like that because of a 30% rise in day just brings disappointment in the short term.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
March 31, 2015, 05:02:43 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  Grin

I don't think it is optimistic to think that Monero could hit 10 usd this year regardless if btc price.
It is realistic view in my opinion, and I never said it will happen but it is realistic to happen.
Even now if XMR cost 10 usd per coin it means the daily mining output costs 160 000 usd which is not impossible to eat (with today's reward rate - not to mention with the reward of the end of the year). Correct me if I am wrong but LTC was able to eat even larger emission than that.
That being said, most likely 10 usd will not be hit this run. Perhaps 5 usd is realistic peak with the current pump.

I actually agree with you on most of what you said. I was thinking that 10 USD seems a little high, unless BTC gets moving again, of course.
I settled on a more "fair" valuation of $3-$5, maybe $7, given the current BTC price range.
I guess I should have used green front as I thought it was clear I was joking.  Smiley

As the alt market moves forward we are going to start to see a HUGE separation between the coins with a chance, that are legitimate, etc. at least during these initial run ups as it is done 99%+ by people who are in the BTC scene. As the public becomes aware of BTC and then the alts, I think we will see a boom of the market, BUT, there will still be the Monero's and such at the top and then some mid tier coins, etc.

It is EASY to forget we are EXTREMELY early adopters here. Don't for a moment think that what happened in 2012-2013 with BTC is done, nor exclusive to BTC.
We will have our moment to shine imo.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 31, 2015, 04:55:42 AM
The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
Monero is able to handle 30 % pumps without severe dumps currently. The reason: price is still very low (it doesn't matter for serious buyer if he pays 1 usd or 1.5 usd if he is anticipating 2000+ usd price - I guess he is willing even to accumulate for 10 usd and some at 100 usd).

The bull trend was very good... For a while it looked like the trend lost some steam when xhalox dumped at 0.003, but this 30 % run was a gift and very warmly welcomed after that dump.

I think the price will not rise so fast after 0.01 since it is an area of very little trading (but until that it can rise fast without creating bubble or ending up badly) and therefore there will be resistance. Until that there is surprisingly little resistance.
sr. member
Activity: 400
Merit: 263
March 31, 2015, 04:48:27 AM
I agree with you all Smiley   

I just hear the echo of the guys in DASH a week ago @0.024 - "we probably won't see coins this cheap anymore....."
(they are down to 0.164 one week later)

I agree stop jinxing Monero with all that moon talk. We don't need a new bunch of depressed XMR bagholders. We want to inspire confidence right?
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 04:34:48 AM
I agree with you all Smiley   

I just hear the echo of the guys in DASH a week ago @0.024 - "we probably won't see coins this cheap anymore....."
(they are down to 0.164 one week later)

How can you take some crapcoin seriously
I dont care about the coin- just the people.
Most are just naive victims like in most other alts.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
March 31, 2015, 04:34:36 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  Grin

I don't think it is optimistic to think that Monero could hit 10 usd this year regardless if btc price.
It is realistic view in my opinion, and I never said it will happen but it is realistic to happen.
Even now if XMR cost 10 usd per coin it means the daily mining output costs 160 000 usd which is not impossible to eat (with today's reward rate - not to mention with the reward of the end of the year). Correct me if I am wrong but LTC was able to eat even larger emission than that.
That being said, most likely 10 usd will not be hit this run. Perhaps 5 usd is realistic peak with the current pump.

LTC still has an emission of 28800 coins per day, for like 10 months or so when the price was between 48 and 5  usd they managed to eat that emission, so its certainly possible, i am not saying it happens tho.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
March 31, 2015, 04:28:21 AM
I agree with you all Smiley   

I just hear the echo of the guys in DASH a week ago @0.024 - "we probably won't see coins this cheap anymore....."
(they are down to 0.164 one week later)

How can you take some crapcoin seriously
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 04:19:41 AM
I agree with you all Smiley   

I just hear the echo of the guys in DASH a week ago @0.024 - "we probably won't see coins this cheap anymore....."
(they are down to 0.164 one week later)
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 31, 2015, 04:12:31 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  Grin

I don't think it is optimistic to think that Monero could hit 10 usd this year regardless if btc price.
It is realistic view in my opinion, and I never said it will happen but it is realistic to happen.
Even now if XMR cost 10 usd per coin it means the daily mining output costs 160 000 usd which is not impossible to eat (with today's reward rate - not to mention with the reward of the end of the year). Correct me if I am wrong but LTC was able to eat even larger emission than that.
That being said, most likely 10 usd will not be hit this run. Perhaps 5 usd is realistic peak with the current pump.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 31, 2015, 04:08:42 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

Speculate away- just with reason Wink

If Monero does what it is designed for - becomes a better gold - it will have to rise 1,000,000 times higher in value.

It is hard to sound reasonable when this is the background.*

*(gold's marketcap/XMR's marketcap)

legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
March 31, 2015, 04:00:30 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 04:00:07 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

Speculate away- just with reason Wink
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 31, 2015, 03:57:20 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...
hero member
Activity: 768
Merit: 505
March 31, 2015, 03:57:14 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

Ya also the slower the better, every coin you can still buy/mine without everything skyrocketing can be pure bargain in the future Wink
legendary
Activity: 1449
Merit: 1001
March 31, 2015, 03:49:24 AM
Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 31, 2015, 03:31:15 AM
How long until $10 Monero?

I see 10 usd Monero price being realistic by the end of this year - regardless of btc price.
However, I am not saying it will happen but it definetely is possible.
The block reward is declining so fast that we can easily absorb the mining at current rate - currently it is 16 000 usd per day (only).
After all, there are not that many sellers - and why one should even sell... If you believe Monero is the next bitcoin, then you do not sell it even at 100 usd.
Animals get slaughtered in the marketplace.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
March 31, 2015, 03:06:50 AM
Dollar-parity.

About damn time we cross that mark.

Done, Next Target Peercoin

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 31, 2015, 02:41:47 AM
How long until $10 Monero?

It would be cool if it went directly to the m00n, but I don't think it will:

- Speculative sellers have been burned every time for weeks now, so they have become scarce
- Lax buyers have been burned every time for weeks now, so they have become more aggressive

=> Price has been rising. Exacerbating the above and forming a virtuous circle.

This is a bubble mechanism. Not saying that the bubble will pop now, or when it does, or at what price (in BTC/2010, the bubble lasted for months and never fully popped until the following summer after an additional 40x increase).

The thing that I can say with the highest certainty, is that after the bubble pop, around BTC0.003-0.0045 is the floor.
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