Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1982. (Read 3313076 times)

This, There are alot of coins out there grabbed up cheap for a quick turnaround. Once this surge plateaus they will get dumped. No biggie they will get eaten by stronger hands and it looks like those hands are BTC investors accumulating. Yes this is how a BTC whale grabs when they think a surge is imminent and other whales are eyeballing. No-one wants to be last in. They certainly aren't going to advertise it but they are. They are a intelligent group that can see the trend and that the future is moving to this coin.


Those grabs were not there during the downslide because these are not speculative investors buying now.  That was the most important XMR test and Monero Passed with flying colors, don't think for a second no-one was watching which way that dump would go. Those that supported the coin during it's decline are the real visionaries and will reap those rewards. The BTC flowing in right now are from BTC holders that see the writing on the wall. It takes alot for a BTC holder to take any "ALT" seriously (and with good reason) but those same people that saw BTC was here to stay are moving into the next solid investment that will last years and pay them dividends over time.

AFA announcing something to effect the price, LOL you were joking rite? Those buying now are immune to hype. I would like to be fly on the wall when these BTC Whales get together.

I agree after the next profit taking round the price will bottom a .003 and then the upswing will start again. This really is a healthy cycle we currently are in. I need to start getting some good poker days to get back in when that happens. I feel so left out!

Shit I hate typing on this laptop, the touchpad is so sensitive the cursor jumps in the middle of a sentence all the time! @$@#$#$%

i am one of those people that is mainly focused on xmr/usd xchange rate(if focused on any exchange rate at all).
If bitcoin goes down to 150 or even lower and xmr does not follow in the opposite direction I will definitely buy more moneros.
I can see xmr/btc rate go to the moon if btc falls under 100 usd.

I do not hold any btc, maybe that explains it. If I sell xmr for btc I only do so to buy back more xmr or because I plan to sell the btc for usd.
I am not a bitcoin fan, I think it could be very dangerous if it reaches mainstream adoption

Actually it is not that clear if Monero will drop relative to bitcoin in case of major bitcoin dump.
It depends largely on what kind of adoption Monero gets.
If Risto's fiat denominated hands get excited about Monero when btc is at 150 usd per coin, it might mean actually that Monero gains value against  bitcoin.
I am not that optimistic about bitcoin's future as many. Monero is actually better coin than bitcoin, the problem is, the large majority of bitcoin hard core guys have not heard the gospel according to Monero loud and vocal enough to pull the trigger.
Also Monero can serve in case of btc dump as a safe haven for many hardcore bitcoiners.

Until now, Monero has dropped against bitcoin (kind of leveraged dump) when btc is dropping.

Looks like there might be a little stability here around 0.004.
Also dump is possible, but I do not see it very probable (at least not in larger scale).
0.004 is a nice base for a rocket.

I have found that the price of Monero relative to Bitcoin decreases initially on any Bitcoin down swing.

We haven't really had Monero during a true Bitcoin up swing so who knows.
When Bitcoin hit $1,000+ Litecoin took a while to truly catch up, and when it did, $45!

That's $45 for coin 4 times less scarce and more useless than Monero.

If Monero has the database and GUI work partially integrated into the main client by the time Bitcoin has a true $1,000, $2,000 up swing, we could see Monero going crazy.

I know you asked about Bitcoin going down, but I just feel like being more optimistic.

I think that any Bitcoin decrease will not be a good thing for Monero (unless Monero is the reason for the decrease, however that's unlikely to ever happen....)

what do you guys think will happen to xmr price IF bitcoin goes to say $150? Would that make xmr go higher or lower? Or no correlation?

I think hashrate usually follows the price up with some delay. Mining is a business of its own, you don't mine to invest in a coin, you buy the coin.

The current Monero rise is impressive. Baby steps

I guess we shall see in the next few days. If it drops then I guess there were enough people in the profit zone to sell now (I'll rule out "non-believers for now)

I have felt for a year that the use case for Monero as a private store of value was relatively ignored.  The one property it lacks currently for that to be the case is price stability.  But we can't have that until it agrees with me as to what it is actually worth.

I think the bolded is quite true. Just as BTC was (and will continue to be) a revolution of sorts, it appears that another Trojan Horse (perhaps several) is due on the scene to push the boundaries/tech further.
And in many of our opinions here, it appears Monero has an incredibly good shot at this "pushing".

Many of us BTC "followers" get the disruptive anti-fragile technology and what that really means. But I wonder how many really do.
This is not about getting rich, though that is a bit of a revolution as far as money disbursement goes.
This is about pushing the envelope of what we thought money was, what it is and further what it is becoming (e.g. how we define it).

This Black Swan is only getting started (BTC, XMR, etc.) and it is going to organically morph and adapt... and destroy (or rather help to) what we no longer need.
The Ross trial is a teeny little glimpse into disruption. I get a feeling the boundaries are going to be really stretched here.

And I wonder, just as those early BTC adopters created liquidity out of nothing and helped to create a whole space, we are going to see a subset of them further take this space via XMR to a perhaps more "extreme" place. And for the betterment of us all, don't forget the other.

Its about sharing

I don't know about DRK but litecoin most certainly not. There are already a bunch of ASICs out for mining litecoin.

large scale monero mining == a pain kinda sorta. Special versions of GPU miners etc.

i've read that most professional miners wait for a high price to stabilize before committing resources.

average joe miners still flummoxed by lack of GUI.

I mean, I guess the main miner drifter would be from litecoin or DRK - those are mostly GPU mined still, right?

Any theories on why the network hashrate isn't going up?  You'd think more people would mine it if it became profitable for them to do so.

Keep in mind also, that bull trend is preventing speculators from selling.
Who wants to kill a cow for one time meat if it gives you milk for rest of cow's life.

IMO - Monero is what people thought Bitcoin was in 2013... Anonymous!

As such, a lot of the earlier adopters of Bitcoin who were the ones that took it over $100 (before it was famous) are the ones that are looking at Monero to carry the torch forward.

litecoin offers nothing of value over Bitcoin, so you may as well buy Bitcoin. Whilst I did hold Litecoin for a while - i will not do it again.

 Monero lacks basic ecommerce APIs or simple 'newbie, clients or even a Direct USD to Monero exchange but it does have an optimistic roadmap and I think that its own community can easily drive the price higher than it is now (even without these things) and a lot higher when the infrastructure becomes more robust.

The speculators have only just started to wake up and many of them are looking for a better payday than .004 per Monero and will probably hold longer to see if the roadmap materialises as promised.

Well, that's true.
There definetely are people who might take take their profits at some point...
Historically, however, Monero has been able to handle 30 % daily pump without crash. The crash takes place if the pump is 35+ % for longer time (like 1-2 days).
People like me are not even taking profits at 10 usd per coin, we are building here new economy, not pumping and dumping.
That being said, it is interesting to speculate and also try to guess when it is good entry point to add stash and when it is time to be neutral.
Selling takes place at least in my case when we clearly see noobs coming into the markets and they need their part of the pie. I am willing to share some of mine to them.

There are very few people who were
1) not heavily involved in XMR before 0.001-0.003;
2) who are not ardent believers now, and
3) who did buy in that range, and
4) have not already sold.

The other people (who of course did buy all the coins mined in that period) are not selling at these prices except trickle quantities. See my prior post.

Actually, "these people" is a group that is increasing now. The quantity of "XMR for short-term speculation" is growing during the uptrend.

A "life-changing amount of purchasing power" for someone who was living "normal developed world life" is USD 2-10 million.

Monero (unlike Bitcoin) has not generated any such people, because nether the craftiest miner nor the shrewdest speculator has been able to amass XMR valued at 2, let alone 10 million dollars. Both because such amounts are either impossible or statistically heavy outliers, and because acquiring them would have required resources that are outside the realm of people living such middle-class life.

Therefore, we can conclude that the divestment from such people, enough in quantity to cap a major rally, is not happening until such people exist. Any selling below that is speculative selling by speculators, but as analysed before, very few were left after the prolonged downtrend. Starting from now, some will be gained.

In my analysis, the uptrend will now continue until a tipping point (no timeframe given), and then recede possibly to 0.003-0.0045 area. Because my prior forecast that XMR "does not like" 0.002-0.003 range seems to have been confirmed, dips to this range are buying opportunities.

The emergence of USD pricing (decoupling from BTC) means that the ranges should be revised upwards. For those pricing in USD, $1 will be a good choice of a "sticky price". Also BTC took a multi-month breather around that price in the middle of the 2010-2011 uptrend, on its way to $32.

But then we can announce the release of something ridiculous!

so it seems there will be a wave of profit takers from the 0.001 buyin era, and then later there will be a wave from the higher eras.

I dunno though. From the outside, it looks like the activity is different currently. Granted, I know jack squat about cryptocurrency markets, but I never saw these huge accumulation buys during the 0.001 range.