Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1982. (Read 3314330 times)

A "life-changing amount of purchasing power" for someone who was living "normal developed world life" is USD 2-10 million.

Monero (unlike Bitcoin) has not generated any such people, because nether the craftiest miner nor the shrewdest speculator has been able to amass XMR valued at 2, let alone 10 million dollars. Both because such amounts are either impossible or statistically heavy outliers, and because acquiring them would have required resources that are outside the realm of people living such middle-class life.

Therefore, we can conclude that the divestment from such people, enough in quantity to cap a major rally, is not happening until such people exist. Any selling below that is speculative selling by speculators, but as analysed before, very few were left after the prolonged downtrend. Starting from now, some will be gained.

In my analysis, the uptrend will now continue until a tipping point (no timeframe given), and then recede possibly to 0.003-0.0045 area. Because my prior forecast that XMR "does not like" 0.002-0.003 range seems to have been confirmed, dips to this range are buying opportunities.

The emergence of USD pricing (decoupling from BTC) means that the ranges should be revised upwards. For those pricing in USD, $1 will be a good choice of a "sticky price". Also BTC took a multi-month breather around that price in the middle of the 2010-2011 uptrend, on its way to $32.

But then we can announce the release of something ridiculous!

so it seems there will be a wave of profit takers from the 0.001 buyin era, and then later there will be a wave from the higher eras.

I dunno though. From the outside, it looks like the activity is different currently. Granted, I know jack squat about cryptocurrency markets, but I never saw these huge accumulation buys during the 0.001 range.

I'll be glad as you if we go up so more. But there are plenty of people with coins bought between 0.001-0.003 (and btc bought at 200-250) that will sell with a nice profit at this time- it just takes a flatline price for a bit and people get jittery.

Well, Risto said almost 1 year ago when Monero was launched that Monero trading will take place in his opinion between 0.002-0.004.
When this was said, the emission was almost 50 % higher than currently.
Monero peaked around midsummer feast at 5 usd - and this happened almost a year ago when nothing has been done almost to the code base. If it was possible then, why not today?
After all, I am now on the water for long long long time. My average buying price is somewhere around 0.003-0.0035. And when I bought most of my Moneros bitcoin was trading between 400-685 usd.
I think many were buying along me so there is not that much sellers at current prices. Also I doubt if long term bagholders like me and the others are selling at 10-30 % profit. I assume we are expecting much more if we ever want to sell even. Much better if there will be useful stuff to buy directly with XMR - and prefertably from Monero-friendly people who do not dump immediately after receiving the payment.
In my opinion, the fair price for Monero is now where the darkcoin is (around 0.02). Given the development and lowering block reward, the community etc.

It's not being bearish- it's realistic long term view after watching many coins for a few years.
Sure monero can hit 10$,100$ ,1000$  maybe even more- EVENTUALLY.
Talk like that because of a 30% rise in day just brings disappointment in the short term.

I actually agree with you on most of what you said. I was thinking that 10 USD seems a little high, unless BTC gets moving again, of course.
I settled on a more "fair" valuation of $3-$5, maybe $7, given the current BTC price range.
I guess I should have used green front as I thought it was clear I was joking. 

As the alt market moves forward we are going to start to see a HUGE separation between the coins with a chance, that are legitimate, etc. at least during these initial run ups as it is done 99%+ by people who are in the BTC scene. As the public becomes aware of BTC and then the alts, I think we will see a boom of the market, BUT, there will still be the Monero's and such at the top and then some mid tier coins, etc.

It is EASY to forget we are EXTREMELY early adopters here. Don't for a moment think that what happened in 2012-2013 with BTC is done, nor exclusive to BTC.
We will have our moment to shine imo.

The problem is Monero was low for so long time, so I hear still the echo of bearish talks here.
I will repeat what I said before.
Monero is able to handle 30 % pumps without severe dumps currently. The reason: price is still very low (it doesn't matter for serious buyer if he pays 1 usd or 1.5 usd if he is anticipating 2000+ usd price - I guess he is willing even to accumulate for 10 usd and some at 100 usd).

The bull trend was very good... For a while it looked like the trend lost some steam when xhalox dumped at 0.003, but this 30 % run was a gift and very warmly welcomed after that dump.

I think the price will not rise so fast after 0.01 since it is an area of very little trading (but until that it can rise fast without creating bubble or ending up badly) and therefore there will be resistance. Until that there is surprisingly little resistance.

I agree stop jinxing Monero with all that moon talk. We don't need a new bunch of depressed XMR bagholders. We want to inspire confidence right?

I dont care about the coin- just the people.
Most are just naive victims like in most other alts.

LTC still has an emission of 28800 coins per day, for like 10 months or so when the price was between 48 and 5  usd they managed to eat that emission, so its certainly possible, i am not saying it happens tho.

How can you take some crapcoin seriously

I agree with you all    

I just hear the echo of the guys in DASH a week ago @0.024 - "we probably won't see coins this cheap anymore....."
(they are down to 0.164 one week later)

I don't think it is optimistic to think that Monero could hit 10 usd this year regardless if btc price.
It is realistic view in my opinion, and I never said it will happen but it is realistic to happen.
Even now if XMR cost 10 usd per coin it means the daily mining output costs 160 000 usd which is not impossible to eat (with today's reward rate - not to mention with the reward of the end of the year). Correct me if I am wrong but LTC was able to eat even larger emission than that.
That being said, most likely 10 usd will not be hit this run. Perhaps 5 usd is realistic peak with the current pump.

If Monero does what it is designed for - becomes a better gold - it will have to rise 1,000,000 times higher in value.

It is hard to sound reasonable when this is the background.*

*(gold's marketcap/XMR's marketcap)

I've put in a request to rename this thread the Monero Responsible Speculation thread.
I suggest you start an Optimistic Monero Speculation thread.  

Speculate away- just with reason

I am not sure if this is a specualtion thread. I am sorry if I wrote on the wrong thread...

Ya also the slower the better, every coin you can still buy/mine without everything skyrocketing can be pure bargain in the future

Lets calm down- this is starting to sound like the DASH thread a week ago.

I see 10 usd Monero price being realistic by the end of this year - regardless of btc price.
However, I am not saying it will happen but it definetely is possible.
The block reward is declining so fast that we can easily absorb the mining at current rate - currently it is 16 000 usd per day (only).
After all, there are not that many sellers - and why one should even sell... If you believe Monero is the next bitcoin, then you do not sell it even at 100 usd.
Animals get slaughtered in the marketplace.