Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2010. (Read 3313076 times)

I still say 0.035 was crazy cheap.  A risk-weighted discounting of future valuation scenarios tells me it was crazy cheap then, and is even crazier cheap today, when risks are significantly less.  Unfortunately, I recently developed a taste for rather aged Barolos (and did not have the benefit of realizing their merits at an earlier age, when i could have put them down cheaply), which is definitely causing some heartache:  XMR for tomorrow, or a sultry luscious red for tonight?  Fortunately I already have enough XMR to buy a smallish continent (in the most optimistic scenarios) so I don't feel stupid when I indulge my senses a bit.

Regarding the coming BTC run-up:  It seems likely that any BTC boom will be accompanied by significant factors which will have the effect of raising awareness of the risks inherent in the transparent ledger.  Such events will occur with increasing frequency due to (1) state agents gaining facility with BTC, and (2) financial repression ratcheting up.

Given the robust history of XMR, and the relatively mature level of understanding of the practical as well as theoretical risk geometry of the technology, I think that the probability of a new crypto overtaking XMR is much less now.  In particular it seems very unlikely that any large institutional crypto will incorporate competitive privacy features, as much of the value of crypto to such institutions lies in control of information flow.  Almost certainly the overwhelming bulk of the risk in XMR lies in the development team.  At 5mm market cap, they may avoid subornation and subversion.  At 1000x that, not so much.



 

The aim is to eventually be cash, but not at 6m USD market cap.

Well, I will answer my own question, because I think that Monero hands are or will be stronger than bitcoin hands. This is second generation holdings. People have learned from what can happen if you leave your old hard drive in a land fill, or if you buy a pizza for 10k btc (WITHOUT replenishing your holding), just spending it nilly willy.
I understand that the aim for Monero is to be cash, but I surmise that a lot of holders are more frugal about their usage of their coins now and at least replenish their holdings up to a individually predetermined amount.

During the last XBT/USD boom LTC peaked at 0.05 XBT and stayed over 0.02 XBT for a good 4 months. NMC peaked at 0.016 XBT.

Are Monero hands even stronger than bitcoin hands? 

I doubt it. If XBT hits 10 K USD, XMR will likely be way more than 0.01 XBT

Maybe any future innovations in come?

yes possible is everyting, the same as bitcoin will reach $10k this year 

You are also stating the upperbound, probably some of the miners will hoard their coins and thus will result in a lower inflation than described by you.

In the end of this year the daily emission is about 11 000 XMR.
10 USD price means the emission needs 110 000 usd/day which is not impossible - in my opinion. I don't say it will happen but certainly it is possible. I understand that currently it looks pretty distant as emission is 16 000 XMR/day and price is 0.80 USD/XMR.
Last summer Monero cost 3-5 USD so 10 USD is not impossible in my opinion.

Oh, sorry, I wasn't commenting on the 10 target but on overtaking LTC. I believe that is fairly likely, but it won't necessarily be because of XMR going up, it will be LTC going down.

Yes that right over a much longer period of time.

that would be almost $114m marketcap. i will bet my eggs on it that we wont see $10 this year

Ah okay, that was the first implementation proposal based on the tail kicking in after year 10, although the <1% number from the original design actually kicks in at something like year 8, so its slightly different. Anyway, B does indeed show the correct shape (ignore the scale) but doesn't show the slow decline in inflation because it it doesn't go out far enough. You need something like a 50+ year graph to see it.

Graphs are from this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7202538

Sorry for the mess up, will edit my post!

You are right, for A become correct the time span need to become much larger, one can imagine B as A ignoring the current values for time

LTC at least has been a falling knife. Why won't it just go to zero?

we will not see $ 10 this year. i think it is very unrealistic that we will overtake drk,bts and ltc in marketcap.

Tail emission will be implemented with <1% annual inflation.

I'm not sure where those graphs came from but A is not correct. B is closer to correct. Although you are right that the rate of inflation will decline over time and that isn't visible in B.  This happens very, very slowly (rate cut in half in approximately 70 years).