[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2011.

kazuki49

sr. member

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Merit: 250

Quote from: GingerAle on March 17, 2015, 03:48:20 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 17, 2015, 02:49:35 PM

Adding a graph to the numbers:

snp

IGNORE B, A is the current projection

but there is a tail emission, isn't there? (i get so confused on this. I know what it is in principle, but I could swear that means its graph B, right?)

A is the correct one, with tail emission inflation will be on decline forever (compared to the overall supply) since the number of new coins per block will become fixed at a minimum value (or decrease to almost nothing, I don't know what model will be the final).

I like this explanation by tacotime:

Quote from: tacotime on March 08, 2015, 12:47:12 PM

Monero is different. Monero is digital cash, whereas Bitcoin is a hybrid equity-wiring service. Bitcoin has a fixed distribution amount and transparency amongst investors. Conversely, Monero inflationary, like real cash, with a small distribution period of approximately five years as basically an "ICO". It can be spent with privacy, like real cash. They're different entities, with a different promise.

GingerAle

legendary

Activity: 1260

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 17, 2015, 02:49:35 PM

Adding a graph to the numbers:

snp

IGNORE B, A is the current projection

but there is a tail emission, isn't there? (i get so confused on this. I know what it is in principle, but I could swear that means its graph B, right?)

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Adding a graph to the numbers:

EDIT:

Clarification from smooth:

Quote from: smooth on March 17, 2015, 04:06:32 PM

Quote from: kazuki49 on March 17, 2015, 03:54:48 PM

Quote from: GingerAle on March 17, 2015, 03:48:20 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on March 17, 2015, 02:49:35 PM

Adding a graph to the numbers:

snp

IGNORE B, A is the current projection

but there is a tail emission, isn't there? (i get so confused on this. I know what it is in principle, but I could swear that means its graph B, right?)

A is the correct one, with tail emission inflation will be on decline forever (compared to the overall supply) since the number of new coins per block will become fixed at a minimum value (or decrease to almost nothing, I don't know what model will be the final).

I like this explanation by tacotime:

Quote from: tacotime on March 08, 2015, 12:47:12 PM

Monero is different. Monero is digital cash, whereas Bitcoin is a hybrid equity-wiring service. Bitcoin has a fixed distribution amount and transparency amongst investors. Conversely, Monero inflationary, like real cash, with a small distribution period of approximately five years as basically an "ICO". It can be spent with privacy, like real cash. They're different entities, with a different promise.

I'm not sure where those graphs came from but A is not correct. B is closer to correct. Although you are right that the rate of inflation will decline over time and that isn't visible in B. This happens very, very slowly (rate cut in half in approximately 70 years).

kazuki49

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

mrkavasaki

hero member

Activity: 888

Merit: 500

when is the next block halving?

dreamspark

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smooth on March 16, 2015, 07:16:50 PM

Quote from: Hueristic on March 16, 2015, 06:44:45 PM

Quote from: smooth on March 16, 2015, 06:15:08 PM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

Yes and I'm saying that at 100 K USD daily volume it could be more or less controlled by a few or one person a lot of the time. Doesn't even need to be a big whale at all. These are just tiny amounts. When I've traded I've usually tried hard not to move the market too much and even then I still moved it. Anyone trying to move it can do the opposite.

As far as distribution you never really know, other than your own holdings. And even if you know the overall distribution you don't know the distribution that is active in the markets right now. The latter is always much, much smaller. Same with any other coin.

Yeah in a market like this manipulation is easy and extremely profitable. There are plenty of 'secret groups' making a killing in the alt scene trust me. Even btc is easily manipulated by a few people and anyone who tells you its not hasn't a clue what they are talking about. There are plenty of traders with more 10k+ btc, add a little leverage into the situation and form a group and you can make markets. Futures has been an absolute god send. Shorting 10x or 20x with even a small amount like 50 coins has serious profit potential on small $ moves.

fluffypony

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GetMonero.org / MyMonero.com

Quote from: jehst on March 17, 2015, 10:46:08 AM

With cryptokingdom online version, cryptogold on poloniex, and the database all coming within the next week or so, there should be some fireworks.

CKG on Poloniex and the online CK won't be in the next week, though. Especially on the Poloniex integration side there is much to be done from our side and from theirs; this is unchartered territory for them in many ways, and the channel needs to be VERY tightly locked down to make sure everyone's CKG is safe. As we go through this process there's also a lot of interdependencies on both sides, and they have other development priorities and can't free up dev resources that easily, so without putting a damper on it I don't think it's something that's going to happen within the next couple of weeks.

Quicken

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: saddambitcoin on March 17, 2015, 09:53:50 AM

Here's a little blast from the past for perspective. There was a time (for those who weren't around to remember it) when 0.0035 XMR/BTC was considered cheap coins.

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 28, 2014, 12:06:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 10:39:09 PM

Instead buy because it is crazy cheap.

Me, I hit my limit for the week with a buy at 0035. Next week I may want more.

i was surprised to see my 0035 order filled overnight, feeling good waking up with 1000 more XMR

Hehe, yes. I remember when a crash prevention team was trying to defend 0.004 against dumping. We'll get back there soon enough.

jehst

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

21 million. I want them all.

With cryptokingdom online version, cryptogold on poloniex, and the database all coming within the next week or so, there should be some fireworks.

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 09:31:49 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on March 17, 2015, 09:04:37 AM

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]

If you are bitcoin-denominated guy whose major holdings are in bitcoins, the current emission is high. That's still true.

On the other hand if you are fiat-denominated the current emission is low. That is due to the fact that bitcoin doesn't cost 1000 usd these days but 300 usd (give or take).

Being self-serving is absolutely the truth (obviously). I admitted this earlier to you.
I am also one of those internet trolls (I have not said I wasn't).

My way of trolling is not speaking lies but just bringing different perspectives to the table. When the price is depressing, my writings are also depressing (I want to buy low). If the price is on rise, my posts are more euphoric (I want to increase the value of my holdings).
There is ignore-button that you are free to push if you do not want to read my posts.

Still I am thinking the chances are the price will rise to 10 usd (if we exclude possible skyrocketing of btc) at the latter part of this year latter than the early part.

Don't react so stung, if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Cheesy

@binary, hehe nice one, you actually beat me to it

opennux

full member

Activity: 231

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 09:44:21 AM

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:40:31 AM

Quote from: illodin on March 17, 2015, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

Why would anyone want to buy daily? Would you not try to buy the dips? Or buy when you get paid?

I am buying every now and then.
I do not need to buy any coins. I am buying more to support the coin rather than making money with it. My core position is bought in, but I just want to do my share in this community. I cannot code and I do not have connections like Risto has so my part is to buy a couple of coins to give the markets for the miners and other dumpers. Today I have bought around 100 XMR.
But to comfort you - I am still underwater in terms of bitcoins (and especially in terms of fiat).

I'd conjecture you "do your share in this community" better by less word salad, contradictions and trolling. I like that you write a lot, and often. But if you go over your posts over time, it's what I just described. You're of course free to do what you want, but it seems like a larger part of the community holds the same thoughts. We can of course only appeal you to do better.

Besides that, great job with the DB devs. I like that the dev team keeps on trucking. Surely getting there. Pardon my french, but it's fucking professional.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

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Quote from: saddambitcoin on March 17, 2015, 09:53:50 AM

Here's a little blast from the past for perspective. There was a time (for those who weren't around to remember it) when 0.0035 XMR/BTC was considered cheap coins.

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 28, 2014, 12:06:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 10:39:09 PM

Instead buy because it is crazy cheap.

Me, I hit my limit for the week with a buy at 0035. Next week I may want more.

i was surprised to see my 0035 order filled overnight, feeling good waking up with 1000 more XMR

And bitcoin was twice as much as today.

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

Here's a little blast from the past for perspective. There was a time (for those who weren't around to remember it) when 0.0035 XMR/BTC was considered cheap coins.

Quote from: saddambitcoin on June 28, 2014, 12:06:10 PM

Quote from: aminorex on June 27, 2014, 10:39:09 PM

Instead buy because it is crazy cheap.

Me, I hit my limit for the week with a buy at 0035. Next week I may want more.

i was surprised to see my 0035 order filled overnight, feeling good waking up with 1000 more XMR

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 09:44:21 AM

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:40:31 AM

Quote from: illodin on March 17, 2015, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

Why would anyone want to buy daily? Would you not try to buy the dips? Or buy when you get paid?

I am buying every now and then.
I do not need to buy any coins. I am buying more to support the coin rather than making money with it. My core position is bought in, but I just want to do my share in this community. I cannot code and I do not have connections like Risto has so my part is to buy a couple of coins to give the markets for the miners and other dumpers. Today I have bought around 100 XMR.
But to comfort you - I am still underwater in terms of bitcoins (and especially in terms of fiat).

So are a large number of ASH holders.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:40:31 AM

Quote from: illodin on March 17, 2015, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

Why would anyone want to buy daily? Would you not try to buy the dips? Or buy when you get paid?

I am buying every now and then.
I do not need to buy any coins. I am buying more to support the coin rather than making money with it. My core position is bought in, but I just want to do my share in this community. I cannot code and I do not have connections like Risto has so my part is to buy a couple of coins to give the markets for the miners and other dumpers. Today I have bought around 100 XMR.
But to comfort you - I am still underwater in terms of bitcoins (and especially in terms of fiat).

illodin

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 1003

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:40:31 AM

Quote from: illodin on March 17, 2015, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

Why would anyone want to buy daily? Would you not try to buy the dips? Or buy when you get paid?

Good questions. I'd also add "Or if you already have pockets full?"

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: illodin on March 17, 2015, 09:38:50 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

Why would anyone want to buy daily? Would you not try to buy the dips? Or buy when you get paid?

illodin

hero member

Activity: 966

Merit: 1003

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

How much are you buying daily?

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: binaryFate on March 17, 2015, 09:04:37 AM

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]

If you are bitcoin-denominated guy whose major holdings are in bitcoins, the current emission is high. That's still true.

On the other hand if you are fiat-denominated the current emission is low. That is due to the fact that bitcoin doesn't cost 1000 usd these days but 300 usd (give or take).

Being self-serving is absolutely the truth (obviously). I admitted this earlier to you.
I am also one of those internet trolls (I have not said I wasn't).

My way of trolling is not speaking lies but just bringing different perspectives to the table. When the price is depressing, my writings are also depressing (I want to buy low). If the price is on rise, my posts are more euphoric (I want to increase the value of my holdings).
There is ignore-button that you are free to push if you do not want to read my posts.

Still I am thinking the chances are the price will rise to 10 usd (if we exclude possible skyrocketing of btc) at the latter part of this year latter than the early part.

fluffypony

donator

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1060

GetMonero.org / MyMonero.com

Quote from: griffinriz on March 17, 2015, 09:16:37 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:09:51 AM

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

I guess after DB we will see GUI wallet?

Nope, the dev goals are in order of focus: https://getmonero.org/design-goals/

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2011. (Read 3313076 times)