Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2013. (Read 3313076 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 17, 2015, 05:04:10 AM
Indeed it is creeping upwards slowly slowly.
I am glad if I finally end up on the water bitcoinwise - and prefertably even am a bit positive since I have kept my coins tied into this for months already. And, no still not even planning to sell my Moneros for peanuts.
You are able to purchase 10 000 XMR from me at 1000 USD each.
sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 250
March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM
I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 17, 2015, 02:30:26 AM
Is there anyone who is on his way to owning 1 000 000 XMR - "Monero Satoshi"?
This type of person owns today 350 000 XMR and is buying more or less frequently as the emission goes on...

I understand that the coin should be distributed as well as possible but 1-2 this type of guys are not hurting Monero especially if they are friendly hands.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 16, 2015, 10:26:10 PM
Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them? Smiley

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.

That's up to everybody but if you have 1% of the current emission, I believe everyone considers you a whale Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
March 16, 2015, 10:00:13 PM
Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them? Smiley

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 16, 2015, 08:17:47 PM
Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them? Smiley

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 16, 2015, 07:16:50 PM
Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.



Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

Yes and I'm saying that at 100 K USD daily volume it could be more or less controlled by a few or one person a lot of the time. Doesn't even need to be a big whale at all. These are just tiny amounts. When I've traded I've usually tried hard not to move the market too much and even then I still moved it. Anyone trying to move it can do the opposite.

As far as distribution you never really know, other than your own holdings. And even if you know the overall distribution you don't know the distribution that is active in the markets right now. The latter is always much, much smaller. Same with any other coin.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 16, 2015, 06:44:45 PM
Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.



Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 16, 2015, 06:15:08 PM
Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
March 16, 2015, 06:08:24 PM
Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS

Anything is "possible" but if that were the case I don't think we would have seen the price almost double from a 75 BTC dump. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM
Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
March 16, 2015, 04:57:12 PM
In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be.  Roll Eyes

I am sensing a similair pattern as to when 0.00194 broke.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 16, 2015, 04:49:07 PM
It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment

24hr High
0.00297500
hero member
Activity: 876
Merit: 568
( ͡⊙ ͜ʖ ͡⊙)
March 16, 2015, 04:41:49 PM
It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
March 16, 2015, 04:39:00 PM
In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be.  Roll Eyes
full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
March 16, 2015, 08:46:21 AM
"I value my virginity. But I'm not anal about it.." See how that works?

There's definitely a joke in there about anal, and the concept of maintaining one's virginity by way of it. Smiley

So many layers.  Cool
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
March 16, 2015, 08:37:37 AM
The market is crazy right now. 2k coins back to 0.0024 and someone is still market buying everything up to 0.0029. That's an insane spread.

a few hours ago we had a 100btc buy wall... maybe he got a little impatient Wink

Yeah course, very very weird price action though. Reeks of insider trading if there happens to be a big announcement around the corner.

Could simply be anticipation for Monday's news (because it's always on a Monday).

It's mainly because bids are not getting filled. I had similair issues before. You place some bids close to the action, action keeps moving up alongside with everybody else's bids. Eventually you just want to pull the trigger. Also, if you're investing for 1-3 years instead of trading the shortterm waves, difference between entering at .0026 or 28 isn't that significant. If you're a trader, that could be the difference between success and failure.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
March 16, 2015, 08:31:03 AM
XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

I think the big awareness point in market cap terms is 8 figures in USD. Passing PPC would put XMR well on the way. :-)
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
March 16, 2015, 08:24:56 AM
XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

Agree. We're already solidly in top 10 status when the tokens are removed, and as such we have started to get more noticed in a variety of places. Passing one or both of those old-school altcoins would bring even more visibility.

EDIT: we're above NMC right now!

legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
March 16, 2015, 06:51:31 AM
"I value my virginity. But I'm not anal about it.." See how that works?

There's definitely a joke in there about anal, and the concept of maintaining one's virginity by way of it. Smiley
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