[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2012.

griffinriz

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:09:51 AM

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

I guess after DB we will see GUI wallet?

pinky

hero member

Activity: 538

Merit: 500

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:10:35 AM

I too find his posts decreasing the signal/noise ratio. Self serving and borderline SPAM.

We all do.

But since he is quite active poster it helps with visibility of XMR thread. I guess bad promotion is better than no promotion.

shitaifan2013

legendary

Activity: 874

Merit: 1000

monero

Quote from: wpalczynski on March 17, 2015, 09:10:35 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on March 17, 2015, 09:04:37 AM

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]

I too find his posts decreasing the signal/noise ratio. Self serving and borderline SPAM.

just put him on ignore, guys. I've done that after seeing his first posts in the polo trollbox a while ago and til this day never had the feeling of missing something Grin

wpalczynski

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: binaryFate on March 17, 2015, 09:04:37 AM

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]

I too find his posts decreasing the signal/noise ratio. Self serving and borderline SPAM.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on February 03, 2015, 05:39:15 PM

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:24:32 AM

Quote from: smooth on March 17, 2015, 08:12:48 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:09:51 AM

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

There are tons of coins that are completely abandoned.
Just delivering something concrete is a good sign.

Absolutely. There are at most a few dozen coins out of several hundred on coinmarketcap (I'm told there are close to 2000 total) that aren't abandoned, and that might be a high estimate.

In my opinion some of the traction that Monero is starting to get now (and I believe will continue to get in the coming months) comes from the fact that we are still here and still working on it after almost a year. That's really the only way for an objective outside observer to tell what in this sea of shitcoins is worthwhile -- the test of time.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smooth on March 17, 2015, 08:12:48 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:09:51 AM

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

There are tons of coins that are completely abandoned.
Just delivering something concrete is a good sign.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 08:09:51 AM

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: smooth on March 17, 2015, 06:57:36 AM

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 06:52:30 AM

Quote from: David Latapie on March 17, 2015, 06:15:48 AM

Quote from: cbeast on March 17, 2015, 06:14:17 AM

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

Of course, that's why rpteilla called it "approximate distribution analysis"

I have written multiple threads with hundreds(!) of posts about it. The body of knowledge is all there (see my sig).

This problem is contained, meaning it cannot have outcomes outside a defined set (limited number of coins and limited number of owners).

The outcomes in the set have a statistical probability maximum at certain points (forming the "most probable distribution curve"). We do not know exactly what the most probable curve is, and we do not know any individual holders' exact holdings. The most probable curve does, however, have bounds, it does follow a certain formula with only the parameters being up to debate. The individual holdings also follow a random statistical sample theory.

Therefore it is possible to construct approximate distributions that are based on the approximations of the parameters in these formulas, and the statistical laws. The probability of the measured result (it cannot be measured of course) being off from the distribution constructed such, is the lower, the further from the approximate distribution. Similarly, it is not possible to say for certain that a d20 would not show 1 if your life depends on it, but the probability of hitting a 1-5 is much higher.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 06:52:30 AM

Quote from: David Latapie on March 17, 2015, 06:15:48 AM

Quote from: cbeast on March 17, 2015, 06:14:17 AM

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

Of course, that's why rpietila called it "approximate distribution analysis"

OrientA

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: David Latapie on March 17, 2015, 06:15:48 AM

Quote from: cbeast on March 17, 2015, 06:14:17 AM

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

David Latapie

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 503

Monero Core Team

Quote from: cbeast on March 17, 2015, 06:14:17 AM

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1014

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: rpietila on March 16, 2015, 08:17:47 PM

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: MalMen on March 17, 2015, 06:03:58 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

One thing that i learned in this world its that 9 months its a lot of time.. i definitely see this coin on >10USD Range, but its an hell of a jump, dont be lulled into only hopes...
Last week i made my first real world pruchase with BTC/XMR thanks to xmr.to, i realy love the fact that i can be 100% anonymous on that transaction and realy see alot of potencial on this tech, but it will take time, and i hope we all still here when the time comes

Yes, 9 months is long time in crypto.
In old world it is considered as short term. If you are building a stock portfolio that pays you hefty dividends, it is a process that takes 20+ years in many cases (depending what you consider hefty and how much you can afford to set aside from each paycheck).

Overcoming DRK is quite essential before it is too late.
People do not care so much which tech is superior but there are other more important factors for average Joe. Marketcap is perhaps one of the most important.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 06:03:42 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 05:21:50 AM

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

5% per week is 1264% per year!

Yes.
When the price is this low it is hard to keep the low growth. The low growth comes when the price is high. For instance, until new ATH I would see it very easily going pretty fast without any serious dumps since it is only 3-4 usd/coin and it is kind of psychological barrier that need to overcome. There might start some first more serious selling and the growth rate might fall for a while to 1-2 % per week (this is pure speculation, nothing more nothing less).

MalMen

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

One thing that i learned in this world its that 9 months its a lot of time.. i definitely see this coin on >10USD Range, but its an hell of a jump, dont be lulled into only hopes...
Last week i made my first real world pruchase with BTC/XMR thanks to xmr.to, i realy love the fact that i can be 100% anonymous on that transaction and realy see alot of potencial on this tech, but it will take time, and i hope we all still here when the time comes

OrientA

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 17, 2015, 05:25:14 AM

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 05:21:50 AM

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

5% per week is 1264% per year!

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 05:21:50 AM

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

OrientA

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2012. (Read 3313076 times)