[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2012.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: OrientA on March 17, 2015, 05:21:50 AM

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

OrientA

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: sphericon on March 17, 2015, 03:33:30 AM

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Indeed it is creeping upwards slowly slowly.
I am glad if I finally end up on the water bitcoinwise - and prefertably even am a bit positive since I have kept my coins tied into this for months already. And, no still not even planning to sell my Moneros for peanuts.
You are able to purchase 10 000 XMR from me at 1000 USD each.

sphericon

sr. member

Activity: 327

Merit: 250

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this Cheesy

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Is there anyone who is on his way to owning 1 000 000 XMR - "Monero Satoshi"?
This type of person owns today 350 000 XMR and is buying more or less frequently as the emission goes on...

I understand that the coin should be distributed as well as possible but 1-2 this type of guys are not hurting Monero especially if they are friendly hands.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Anon136 on March 16, 2015, 10:00:13 PM

Quote from: rpietila on March 16, 2015, 08:17:47 PM

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.

That's up to everybody but if you have 1% of the current emission, I believe everyone considers you a whale

Anon136

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1217

Quote from: rpietila on March 16, 2015, 08:17:47 PM

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: Hueristic on March 16, 2015, 06:44:45 PM

Quote from: smooth on March 16, 2015, 06:15:08 PM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

Yes and I'm saying that at 100 K USD daily volume it could be more or less controlled by a few or one person a lot of the time. Doesn't even need to be a big whale at all. These are just tiny amounts. When I've traded I've usually tried hard not to move the market too much and even then I still moved it. Anyone trying to move it can do the opposite.

As far as distribution you never really know, other than your own holdings. And even if you know the overall distribution you don't know the distribution that is active in the markets right now. The latter is always much, much smaller. Same with any other coin.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: smooth on March 16, 2015, 06:15:08 PM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Of course it's being manipulated to some extent but I think he means controlled by a very few. I.E. I think his question was really one of distribution.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: Its About Sharing on March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

If anyone thinks these minuscule 100 000 USD/day (or less) unregulated markets are not manipulated they are being pretty naive. (Which is not to say much bigger markets aren't manipulated too, because they certainly are.)

It's part of the terrain you have to accept if you are trading cryptos.

As far as reading what specific manipulation is going on, what the manipulators are trying to accomplish, and whether and how you can trade with or against that for profit, that all gets a lot harder. But its easier if you are at least realistic about the landscape.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Its About Sharing on March 16, 2015, 05:57:41 PM

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS

Anything is "possible" but if that were the case I don't think we would have seen the price almost double from a 75 BTC dump.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Question - what are the chances the huge consistent volume on Poloniex is sort of a planned exchange of hands, so to speak? I am talking manipulation. I mean is this possible, likely, or how would we even know?

My main feeling is that we are seeing (mostly) large BTC holders lead the pack into the next boom - anonymous Crypto's. I think they are acquiring and NOT wanting the price to run. You can see the buying dry up at key levels, a wait, price comes down, then more buying. This is just a guess, noting that Risto speaks of it.

Regarding the tech, development/team, etc., everything is pointing to Monero really being the best anonymous crypto out there. I watch DRK, I mean Dash, and have had too many questions come up. With Monero, my main hope/concern is just making the blockchain substantially smaller, though I know space is probably not a huge issue...yet.

Thx in advance,
IAS

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on March 16, 2015, 04:39:00 PM

In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be. Roll Eyes

I am sensing a similair pattern as to when 0.00194 broke.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: MataKhobRazi on March 16, 2015, 04:41:49 PM

It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment

24hr High
0.00297500

MataKhobRazi

hero member

Activity: 876

Merit: 568

( ͡⊙ ͜ʖ ͡⊙)

It seems hard to go higher than 0.0028 for the moment

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

In a couple of days we should cross 0.003... The longer the crossing takes, the more violent it will be. Roll Eyes

opennux

full member

Activity: 231

Merit: 100

Quote from: mmortal03 on March 16, 2015, 06:51:31 AM

Quote from: opennux on March 15, 2015, 11:10:31 AM

"I value my virginity. But I'm not anal about it.." See how that works?

There's definitely a joke in there about anal, and the concept of maintaining one's virginity by way of it.

So many layers. Cool

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on March 16, 2015, 01:33:55 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 15, 2015, 11:41:06 PM

Quote from: onemorexmr on March 15, 2015, 11:39:19 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on March 15, 2015, 11:36:00 PM

The market is crazy right now. 2k coins back to 0.0024 and someone is still market buying everything up to 0.0029. That's an insane spread.

a few hours ago we had a 100btc buy wall... maybe he got a little impatient Wink

Yeah course, very very weird price action though. Reeks of insider trading if there happens to be a big announcement around the corner.

Could simply be anticipation for Monday's news (because it's always on a Monday).

It's mainly because bids are not getting filled. I had similair issues before. You place some bids close to the action, action keeps moving up alongside with everybody else's bids. Eventually you just want to pull the trigger. Also, if you're investing for 1-3 years instead of trading the shortterm waves, difference between entering at .0026 or 28 isn't that significant. If you're a trader, that could be the difference between success and failure.

Quicken

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: jehst on March 16, 2015, 06:46:04 AM

XMR is about to pass NMC's market cap. Passing PPC is also possible in the near-term. It should raise some eyebrows and increase XMR's visibility.

I think the big awareness point in market cap terms is 8 figures in USD. Passing PPC would put XMR well on the way. :-)

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2012. (Read 3314325 times)