Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 31. (Read 3314316 times)

The inflation rate of gold is responsive to market forces.

Since you mention PoW I imagine you talk about monetary inflation. Right now, although most people are convinced opposite there is no big coin without monetary inflation. Yes many coins have plans to have none 100 years from now. But if we look 100 years back and imagine changes will be much faster in next 100 years, probably none coin will survive until then.

Only important question is what % should it be. The basic answer to this should be 1.7%, the same as Gold have.  Bitcoin is there right now, and it seems it works quite well for him.

As far as inflation goes, I personally do not think this is a settled question. 

The bitcoin experiment is a long way off from no block subsidy.
Decades will pass before we get close.
Either blocksizes will have increased, or layered systems will allow bitcoin to be a settlement chain with very dense, but very expensive transactions on the base chain.

Monero will probably need this as well frankly.  It's emission barely even lifts it out of deflationary status in my opinion.

The basic question : can the market understand that a digital currency needs inflation to be fully functional? It's hard to have a Store of Value / medium of exchange on a non inflationary basis... in a PoW context. Otherwise privacy isn't even a question, but even on a clear chain the easiest way is to bring to end of life those seeking to breach it / control everything.
How do you call someone trying to follow you and see what you do each time you open your physical wallet and spend or receive a bank note? A stalker? A threat? A psycho? You can as always paper trail him to the nearest police station (if those thing still exist in your neck of the wood) or to a darker alley...

be ready for max fud by the control freaks (cbds, aka central bank digital scams) and others "open chain data harvesters".

Exactly.  And I think this will actually be the case.  At LEAST it will be Bitcoin's industrial strength privacy layer. I think lesser, but significant privacy will be acheived on LN and Liquid.

I am looking forward to seeing what the Samourai integration looks like in action.  From my understanding it not going to act as a marketplace, but as a way to deal with change UTXOs that have privacy problems.  If that works, I am not sure why Samourai could not shift even more traffic over to the BTC<=>XMR swaps as they will act as not only as a mixing method, but they will be an BLACK HOLE and break of the previous chain.

From my understanding whirlpool breaks deterministic links by introducing so many extra paths that they become too difficult to trace accurately for very far.  Like trying to follow a single strand of spaghetti in a colander.   This SWAP functionality will act in a completely different way and be more like a wormhole.  BTC goes in at one place, and then has NOTHING AT ALL TO DO with where it might "come out".  It causes strand of spaghetti to actually turn INTO other strands with no record of it happening.  If they were to use this method with whirlpool it would create a level of chaos and entropy that would be incredibly difficult to even begin to look at.

Obviously seeing apps that act as sort of a market will also be useful and interesting.

My thought is if moving to/from Monero becomes useful and common then two things naturally follow.

-Monero usage, transactions and most likely price, go up.
-More people begin to just PARK some of their value in XMR which naturally makes it more valuable.

There is a REASON to HOLD bitcoin -> value storage.
There is a REASON to hold ETH - > ability to take part in various scams

But the only reason currently to hold monero is privacy and speculation.  That does NOT have the same draw even though WE know it should.  This development is going to make the reasons to hold monero far more understandable.

I do not think it is clear to us all yet how much the exchanges create significant friction going into and out of Monero, as well as that being a major identity problem.  When that friction is gone, and FULL privacy is gained we just set our selves up for a significant virtuous cycle.

I think the question mark here is if Monero becomes a attractor for the most tainted of all BTC.  I have not worked out in my noggin yet the implications of that... Seems a little risky, but at the same time... risky to whom?

Yeah but if monero becomes the bitcoin privacy layer skys the limit?

Interesting thing about Monero's transactions.

Few cryptocurrencies share monero's particular usage pattern.  Monero CONSISANTLY has the least transactions happen on Saturday, with the second least on Sunday.  And the cycle is almost freakishly consistently rhythmic.  BTC and ETH also follow this pattern but to a much lesser extent.  Garbage like ZCash follow a random walk based on trading.


This very clearly  demonstrates Monero is being used consistently for commerce on a limited number of platforms which influence this "weekends off" pattern.  If you were to visit WHM for example you would see that most vendors ship on M-F.

Monero is extraordinary.

2830 tph.  That was a nice bump to what has been a lesser transaction rate lately.

You can't arb taint.

^  Dunno about that.  Volume and liquidity matters a whole lot.  And source of price where all exchanges base their own is from the market where there’s a whole lot of volume and liqudity.  Even if Atomic swaps try to dictate the ‘real price’ of XMR, it will be arb’d enough to be priced the same as the market.

 Atomic swaps friend. The end of exchange manipulation.

Bad analogy or not, Fluffy def made a really good point.  And he foresaw exactly that.  Better tech doesn’t automatically mean a higher spot at CMC.  If anything, I think XMR should be top 5.  IMHO.  But it’s more complicated than that.  And there’s always that threat looming of some exchange deciding to delist it.

I agree it was blathery.  But it was nice to get to hear the Samourai fellow.  Those guys have been so demonized by so many.  I used to judge them poorly.  I am changing to thinking they are kind of over the target.

Brevity is the soul of wit.
Endless conversations that could be condensed into five or ten minutes of succinct information, or better yet a written synopsis covering a few important points, are the soul of youtube.

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily transactions by quarter.



What we can see is that even if number of transactions decreased in June compared to previous months, overall trend is still strong.

You can call what I am doing shilling if you want.  But this is a weird place to shill.  No one here is buying all that much Monero based on something I am saying are they?  What I am saying is Monero is destined to enter a phase of being USED for it's intended purpose in a way that it very unique and might create pressure on the price.  But ironically it will not be because people are dumping money into Monero as a singular investment.

It will be a completely novel interplay between two cryptographic systems in which value is a secondary trait to privacy.

Actually everyone used VHS because it was Much Much cheaper, Sony shot themselfs in the foot by pricing everyone else out of owning a betamax. Another example of this was IBM with OS2. And LAserdisks.

But don't let a bad analogy stand in your way of making a good argument.

^  Uuuh you’re saying, almost shilling, the hype will drive the price much higher then say it’s not the point.  Why mention the hype in the first place?

And how can we use Monero if we don’t buy Monero?  And what’s really happening here is what Fluffy said years ago.  It’s beta vs VHS.  Beta was the superior tech but everybody used VHS cos it had more marketing behind it and the companies that mattered in that space all supported it.

I cannot tell you how satisfying it is to see my predictions from 2014 come true.  I posted something on Reddit, i think, or here... about BTC and Monero finding a kinship that people do not expect.



And we are going to see it.  And already are.  Just the HYPE for Monero is going to drive it's price MUUUUUCH higher.  At least until it gets made illegal by a government.  In the end the price is, as we said back then as well... not the point.

Don't buy Monero.  Use it.


I feel bad that I do not like this show because Truman is leading the sort of anti-BTC maxi charge (and I know there are people here who agree with him) but this episode is wonderful.  And I have found I am way fonder of the Samourai guys...

https://t.co/QsrCyABOuP?amp=1

Monero has been in an eventual downward activity, it is normal, the price of BTC has been falling a little, it is going through the levels of $ 32k, although the fall is not much, it can occur that at any time Monero of a To a great surprise, the Monero bulls are waiting for the right time to act:


Source: https://ambcrypto.com/eos-monero-iota-price-analysis-14-july/

For now it is best to wait and have Monero in Hodl mode, I do not see as a good option to sell.