Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 35. (Read 3314316 times)

And again we don’t see this in the price

https://twitter.com/comit_network/status/1398200695015174144

And officially confirmed. Commit team was the one that made first BTC Monero atomic swaps. Small step for Monero, giant leap for Bitcoin.

I see this as an analog to the early days of MP3 music.  There was this new cool way to handle music, but people could only play them on a computer, and they were not yet portable.  Then the first MP3 players started showing up.  I still have a "Diamond Rio" here somewhere, lol. 

Those things were a nightmare.  The UI was difficult, and the whole process required a lot of computer skill to get from "I have a CD" to "I have an MP3 player with my favorite songs on it".

Then Apple came in with the iPhones and iPods and defined the industry.  Now grandmas could listen to music on their phones or easy to use devices.

Bitcoin is currently in the Diamond Rio phase. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_PMP300

Some thoughts here...

Personally I do not see Liquid as the terrible monster that some others do.  I have been almost rebooted because of the Samourai developer going off on that issue and supporting Haveno etc.  The whole thing is like a divide by zero error in my brain.  And to be honest, I do not understand why the privacy purists don't just finally come over to the dark side of Monero.

As to blacklisted coins being dumped on Monero holders?  Only the holder who decide not to hold anymore... Chances are decent they will not be dumping on me.  But also I have thought about playing with the functionality and I realized any BTC I bought that way would need to live in some sequestered wallet somewhere, and most likely be used to go back to Monero.  Because like you I believe we will see "tainted" bitcoin quite a bit.

In some ways Liquid being involved would be interesting as well since that puts the tainted BTC into another layer... quite interesting really... I need to work through how liquid smart contracts for peg ins work.  Because that could determine where the original BTC ends up going.

This is VERY interesting stuff IMHO.

This analysis below is very interesting, seeing by Tradingview I like how this analyst sees Monero, what I wonder is that if BTC falls a little more, Monero will be able to stay and grow in price?



Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/1ThpgGyX-XMR-beat-BTC/

When we see that BTC falls, it is almost certain that all altcoins fall in price, but there are cases, very few, where some Alts do not, perhaps this will be the case with Monero ...

As of today, the price of Monero itself has reached $ 252.27, and increased 13% within 24 hours, I am sure the price of Monero itself will improve over time if BTC continues to increase again to $ 60k +, Monero will be able to reach $ 300 at least in October 2021.

agree and hope on 550 @31dec

slow and steady grow

I dont understand your logic. You see a swing from $500 to $200 in two weeks and you cant see a $700+ price? If it went down in 2 weeks it can go up to $700 in two weeks. There is many many many times two weeks until end of this year.

Brutal action, but you can say that it is May, and the year is far from over?

Blown away we went sub 200.
Also 0.005? Lol.
I guess I was wrong about 700usd this year.

I think it’s such a shame. I thought after this bull we’d be resting on 350-450.

What can you say.

Thats an interesting observation. Why didnt crypto quite complete into something easy.

Even bitcoin still a mystery to most.

Shit cAPS  I was going to give a nice long reply (I don't put the effort in much anymore) and then the oven went off and the washing machine popped and I have to get stuff done in the yard before dark)!
Lol timing!

I'll get back to this later.

TLDW (too long didn't write)

Bisq going to liquid and any liquid involvement in AS is a bad thing.

Also when AS goes live we can bet all those blackilisted coins are going to get dumped on Monero holders.

One other thought... 

I assume atomic swaps are being built to operate on Bitcoin's base layer?  That seems an obvious first step... but I hope the developers are also looking towards interacting with other layers LND/Liquid/etc.

I feel bad pontificating on what "other people should be doing", but at the same time, I am not anything LIKE a developer. lol.  Yet I do have fairly good vision for why a system will be successful (Bitorrent) or used less that it's potential (Bisq).

Right now everything in bitcoin is friction.  The base layer is high friction because of fees.  Lightning is high friction because it's still beta, and the front ends are not great.  Liquid has friction because it is not used much yet.  Bisq is a great idea, but high friction.  just about NONE of this stuff is ready for prime time.

I always think of Matt Odell going on and on about what everyone should be doing when it comes to protecting your privacy in bitcoin.  And thediscussion is super interesting in an academic way, but basically a no hope situation when it comes to the vast majority of users... Even ODell himself cannot really live up to his own standards.

Again, this is why I think if Atomic Swaps work in a way that is as if Steve Jobs deigned the UX/UI then they are going to turn the entire world on it's head.  The governments will not be fast enough to stop it.  And Monero will shoot up to be a top 5 crypto asset overnight.  On the other hand if the system is more "Bisq like" then it will most certainly be useful for US, and for Matt, lol, but not our moms...  If that happens I am hoping the foundations are built in a way that the Steve Jobs of BTC<=>XMR can build his tool.

Since BTC is the main trading pair it will be interesting to see what sort of ecosystem grows up around the atomic swaps once they are in the wild.

I have not really looked into how these things are supposed to work, but I am hoping for a very robust, low friction sort of oracle/exchange/tracker system.  Does anyone know how this is being implemented?

For example... Bisq, for all it's glory as a very wonderful decentralized, trust minimized exchange is kind of a high friction tool.  The software is kinda klunky, and you have to dedicate yourself to learning to use it.  It is fairly high friction in my opinion.  Not meaning to be critical, since it is fairly amazing what they have done.

But the way that the onramp into atomic swaps is designed etc is very important.  It is it a very easy and robust way to move back and forth between XMR<=>BTC it is going to take the entire space by storm.

I would even think that having more than one approach (decentralized) might be good.

Anyway, does anyone know, yet, how this might work?

There was over 4k transactions in mempool yesterday. It took 3h to empty it. Reason was that after 2 days Binance opened withdrawals. This made yesterdays day as a new record day with 34218 Monero transactions. What showed us last few days is that Binance is new Poloniex. Monero ecosystem relays to much on Bianance, just as it did in 2014-2017 on Poloniex. Most of those "instant" exchanges gets Monero from Biannce, so when Biannce withdrawals go down, also they go down. Hopefully they learned something from yesterday and opened more channels to acquire Monero in the future.

Nah, we'll be laughing about this in a few months.



AFA Bad luck well I had moved a few coins to sell for the first time since 2017 and it started crashing right then so... yeah

So, seriously gents... what's made this "liquidity crisis" happen?  It does not look like the demand is coming from transactional use (which is high and awesome, but not doing a spike) unless the exchanges have just been bled out.  So where is the Monero going? 

We can't do on chain analysis here, so it's way more speculation/Ouijia Board action for us.

*IF* the exchanges are running low, that means either/and/or:

-Large buyers are shipping Monero to cold wallets.
-Darknet vendors are not selling (and legit, lol but you know)
-Miners are not selling

What else can be doing it?  Just really wackadoodle things I can think of like a BIG exchange (Binance?) lost the keys to a big cold wallet?  Seriously.  Because if it's those three up there we are seeing a potential SLINGSHOT effect.  And it might just be starting.

But just to be a damn crybaby... why is it SO OFTEN that Monero has a super bullish setup right when the greater crypto space is melting down.  It always feels like bad luck to me... but maybe it's Monero style?  Even it's bull runs are obfuscated.

My stack has never been larger.

I just wonder where this market is going.

This is prime time for XMR. Everything is aligned.

Features, community, applied crypto, etc.

I thought we’d be at 500 by now.

Still it will come. It just might take another couple of years.

I hope no-one allowed themselfs to get shaken outta the trees.

We needed this.

   

   Transaction volume 

Is that a glitch?