Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 32. (Read 3314350 times)

So, this obviously is the dawn of some major speculative interestingness for Montago.

Does one want to enter the possibly lucrative, but also dangerous world that is about to burst forth?

Unfortunately(?) we continue to prove ourselves in the highest adversarial environment possible.  This PROVES Monero has way more value than is currently reflected by the price, but it will also draw a huge amount of legal attention to us again.

kind of a mixed bag, if you ask me.  But overall quite interesting!

Anyone selling their Monero for less than 4 to 1 is a fool.

Anyone selling their btc for monero off books is doing it because its tainted.

https://unstoppableswap.net/

It seems some are already trying to get meting place where demand and supply will bet for BTC XMR atomic swaps. Right now they use testnet. I guess these markets will come in many shapes and will evolve fast over time.

The Monero Moon (Issue 23) is now available for your reading pleasure.

This is a bumper and comprehensive issue!!

Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-23-6f683202ed78

The Monero Moon (Issue 22) is now available for your reading pleasure. Grab a cup of coffee or a bottle of beer and kick back for a read. Like, share, and spread the word of Monero as it continues to grow and offer unmatched financial privacy.

https://medium.com/themoneromoon/the-monero-moon-issue-22-e37d7f4bbe5a

Be careful what you wish for.

I used to do good during these times until Polo started cancelling all my winning moves and now binance is no longer accessible for us in "the land of the free".

I think if I had lower swining balls I could hav e made an aweful lot of Monero trading it's very clear ranges.  It SO OFTEN does this sort of thing...



Time to sell?  Or going to break out?

Interesting take. But monero cannot be a "dumping ground" since it's fungible. One you own monero you them have the issue of buying the toxic Bitcoin back from the same market.

I also can't see how this has a negative impact on monero prices. Because all of the market is going to be using monero as a tool. Some will be buying it and then dumping it back and others will be buying it and holding on to it for a period of time but there will be a demand for monero that becomes constant. And the demand for coming back into Bitcoin will carry a premium that will be paid by the person doing that trade.

At first it will be impossible for there to be more supply than demand on the monero side. Because monero is what has the premium in this trade. If they want to use these trading vehicles they'll have to pay whatever is being asked.

It is an extremely interesting dynamic. I wonder if there are any other free market money systems that offered this kind of trade. In the first realm...

I agree that it may up the ante on monero as a money laundering tool. But we're never going to get away from that reality. That is why monero is valuable in the first place. Not for money laundering specifically but for the privacy and freedom that allows that use to occur.

My thought is this will have a downward pressure as the Monero they get for their taint will immediately get dumped at market. They have no intention of using Monero as nothing more than a dumping ground for their toxic waste and that will add to the FUD that Monero is noting more than illegal coins.


The more this plays out the less I like it.


I wouldn't recommend supporting with your coins unless you ask an absurdly high swap value like 400% at a minimum.

The samurai news (again)...

Someone tell me if I am over emphasizing this news. But I currently feel like very little talk is happening about something fundamentally very large coming to the Monero blockchain.

I've been digging in more deeply to the samurai wallet developers implementing the Bitcoin side of atomic swaps in their privacy centric wallet and what that may mean for our community.

It's interesting to watch them dance around the Bitcoin maxi types that are angry at them for having anything to do with a shitcoin. But the samurai team are cypherpunk privacy maxies before anything else so in their world using monero is an obvious play.

I have not been able to get clarity on how they intend to implement this. So far what I'm reading is they intend to use monero to deal with the toxic (or sometimes I hear it called doxxic) change problem. If I'm understanding this correctly this is currently thousands of Bitcoin left over from whirlpool activities that are sort of having to be abandoned because for some reason being change in these transactions taints them. And the idea is that Bitcoin will be able to be swapped back and forth with monero perhaps multiple times to mix it, using a completely different method than what they built so far in their privacy stack.

They would not be holding any monero in the samurai wallet. So presumably if you have a monero side of this you'll have to deal with that in a monero wallet (Monerujo, cake, etc?).

I cannot tell yet if this functionality would be able to be used easily for people who want to just swap back and forth manually. It sounds more like they're building it as part of their privacy stack and it will be more of a sort of underneath the hood transaction. So that's one interesting detail that remains to be seen.

This is going to be on ramps and off ramps into monero that bring significant traffic to our blockchain. This is going to swiftly increase the demand for monero liquidity.

And frankly I just don't see how this can't have an impact on the price. Because it's possible that this function ends up dominating the use of an enormous amount of monero liquidity.

As exchanges delist us because we're dangerous (!) All of that traffic is going to be driven straight into the arms of this new functionality. And it's an upgrade not a workaround. I would imagine at first liquidity might be choppy and prices might be all over the place kind of like Bisq. But over time I believe we will see the market smooth out into one of the first true crypto free market expressions we've ever seen.

All of this cosplay on ethereum around defi and useless garbage being built there  amounts to fantastic Rube Goldberg structures but does nothing valuable.  We are about to see what the real thing is. This is a real world smart contract decentralized trading system with an actual fundamental and extremely compelling purpose.

I have been singing the song of monero being a compliment to Bitcoin for years. And I have become very distraught recently seeing this anti Bitcoin tide rise in the monero community. I suppose it makes sense and I do agree with some of the ideas as is often quoted "monero is what you thought you were buying when you got Bitcoin". But monero does something Bitcoin can't do and Bitcoin does things that monero doesn't do as well.

After a decade nearly of meaningless crypto trading we are about to see one of the first actual uses that the word needs built between two blockchains.

One future looking question. How long before the developers and users of samurai realize that this privacy method is way more efficient and effective than all of the whirlpool stuff they've already built. I would think at some point people will begin to think moving just into and out of monero is extremely effective. And then inevitably some of them will start to wonder why to even move back.

I just think we're completely underestimating what's about to hit.

^  Techwise sure..  XMR is better than BTC for sure.  It really is what most people claimed BTC to be back in 2013.  But let’s be real here...  From a trading or investing perspective, it was better to hold BTC in hindsight.  XMR used to be a staple at CMC’s top 10.  Now it’s not even at top 20.  So yeah..  For those new people holding BTC, if you don’t really need to hide your tx’s, don’t buy just yet.

Its win win, unless the btc chain leaks any information to the detriment of the xmr layer.

Just common sense they will have covered this as its our implementation  no theirs.


Good luck all.

xxxx

That’s a monthly chart.  And if anything it’s showing that XMR is on a long term trend going down and it hasn’t really gained back lost ground since 2018 if we’re being real here. 

I converted a huge chunk of my BTC to XMR back in 2017, I’m still down around 40% in BTC in that trade.  Lol.

Wow.
Even with the recent Haveno connection this was hard for me to imagine.  I mean, I did imagine it briefly back then, and then tossed out the possibility since Samourai is sort of an ultra-maxi approved project.



Their stand on why they are doing this is brave to say the least.  And it fulfills a prophesy I think I made back in 2015.  I wish I could find it, but that was when I began to wonder if we might see a day that XMR would be bitcoin's "privacy layer".  Seems the "Spooks" at Samourai have figured out this will be one of the most viable ways to do privacy with bitcoin.

Interesting times for sure... I feel like this is not even close to priced in.  If they can make any headway at all into the social issue around this it will be interesting.  That's the question though.  This will split the privacy focused maxis.  And I would *guess* those in favor of it will be in the minority.

At the same time the Samourai devs have never given a single shit about toeing any lines.  I deleted their thing a long time ago...  Seems I might be reinstalling it, lol.

(edit - reduced the ginourmous image a little)

Not withstanding that polo chart if from a low liquid market now even looking at that one tells you we are at the bottom so now is a perfect entry point.

Why would you wait and buy on the uptick, that moronic.

^  It’s nothing against XMR.  It’s about trading well and getting the most you can once it trends against BTC.  And right now XMR isn’t really looking that good vs BTC.  Here’s how the monthly looks to give you the long term perspective...

Except this is Monero...

If you have BTC and is looking into entering XMR?  I’d suggest you wait.  BTC usually pumps first and leads the way after going side ways causing ALT/BTC pairs to drop before they pump themselves. 

It's always been real!

It's hard to not let emotion rule in times like these... but here is how I see it.

We are either holders or traders. And we have faith or doubt in the project...  You could project this on a 4 square chart with two axis.

As holders it is always hard to see value drop.  We see our net buying power go down.  But if we remain positive about the project then we would either continue to hold during times like this, or even add to our position at a discount.  On the other hand if we are losing faith in the project for some reason or another then we have to plan to unwind positions as we see best.

As traders, if we believe in the project then we must detach our hopes and base investment decision on our system.  In a bear market there are several ways to profit from the dramatic moves of the market, and move like this are opportunities. If we believe the markets have over corrected we have money to make taking positions.  If we have reason to believe the technical are continuing to point down, then we can make money by shorting, or buying puts.

I am a holder who believes we are over corrected.  I am not a trader. This is because I also think we could drop even further against both BTC and the USD.  My positions are a fiarly large percentage of my net worth, so i am not adding any more... but if i had the money to do it, now would be an interesting time.  I think BTC is in the driver's seat, and it is very hard to predict right now... it does not seem the market is acting entirely rationally.

But the question is do we climb too high?  Or are we correcting too deeply?

My money is on both!  How's that for wishy-washy.

As an aside, i do not know if any of the Rehar drama is inducing selling in relative newcomers to XMR.  Could be.  I think that is a mistake if so.  It is too short a view, IMHO.