No, but I am familiar with Bayesian regression, which optimizes distribution estimates, given certain pre-conditions.
Lol
, nice, and how that thing is helping you to trade?
Short term, not much. Long term, it allows me to use proxy statistics to model the transactional economy, and apply Fisher's law to derive an approximate economic price support level. I then buy when price is below a discounted fair value determined by Bayesian regression projection of that fair value, where the discounting rate as a function of horizon tenor is derived by historical backtest. I try to make market short-term, in a small way, but whether I am rolling those gains into BTC or into xmr depends on where the price is relative to the current regression estimate. After all, if it is trading too dear, one needs to stock powder for the coming reversion and overshoot, while if it is trading too cheap, one needs every xmr one can get - but not too fast since it can always get cheaper.
While my technical monkey never did well at predicting crypto, the fundamentalist approach is doing quite a bit better, so far, although I haven't tried it on anything but xmr recently.
I recently went on a sabbatical (basically, called in rich and stopped going to work), and so stopped using salary to buy xmr. I currently depend entirely on trading to increase my stocks. Once I run out of back-logged home improvements, I may start taking contracts again and resume net inflow, or I might work on xmr software full-time, or maybe I will get that Ph.D. I have always kinda wanted - especially if my daughter decides to go to grad school, as it would be fun to collaborate with her on papers. It all depends on events, not least of which are price events. If I had to guess right now what I would be doing in 6 months it would be contract work, in 12 it would be xmr software dev, and in18 months, I would guess that I would have sold 5% of my xmr at $120, and would be engaged in a Ph.D. program.
It's a fun time to be alive, and a great time to be stacking Monero - or BTC even, if you have the stomach for the inevitable volatility that will continue to come from scaling politics. Not so sure about eth though. That one may be past the peak of the hype cycle now. Bancor looks worse than the DAO. Bancor could be the MTGOX to the DAO's Bitcoinica.