Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 777. (Read 3314330 times)

legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
April 15, 2017, 11:54:59 AM

P.S. {Edit} BTW the hard fork is over?  Already?  I thought it was gonna be this weekend... hmm

It's really that hard to perform a non-contentious protocol upgrade.

Also it seem more and more this paper by the Zcash people was a hit job, with a domain registered a few days ago and published around the HF (few hours ago).

Yep this field is that nasty.

The key is non-contentious

Yup there will always be people opposing a HF, even one that isn't contentious.
full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100
April 15, 2017, 11:37:43 AM

The fact that XMRUSD is higher now than it was before the fake news hit suggests that I have been underestimating the size and growth of the economy.  I had previously considered the gap between my Fisher equation estimate and the market clearing price to indicate the degree of forward speculation, but if that were true I would have expected the reaction yesterday to be much stronger and more protracted, as short-horizon speculation should have been biased much more bearishly until the next squeeze caused a reset.  Instead, we see deep and persistent demand.  Either the committed longs have deeper pockets than I thought, or estimates based solely on alphabay statistics undervalue XMRUSD by roughly a factor of 2.


Yep... all that. Or just more simply:


...Monero HODL'ers are a tough crowd & ain't easy to fool.


 Grin


I like the way he says it better!   Grin
hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
April 15, 2017, 09:58:47 AM

The fact that XMRUSD is higher now than it was before the fake news hit suggests that I have been underestimating the size and growth of the economy.  I had previously considered the gap between my Fisher equation estimate and the market clearing price to indicate the degree of forward speculation, but if that were true I would have expected the reaction yesterday to be much stronger and more protracted, as short-horizon speculation should have been biased much more bearishly until the next squeeze caused a reset.  Instead, we see deep and persistent demand.  Either the committed longs have deeper pockets than I thought, or estimates based solely on alphabay statistics undervalue XMRUSD by roughly a factor of 2.


Yep... all that. Or just more simply:


...Monero HODL'ers are a tough crowd & ain't easy to fool.


 Grin

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
April 15, 2017, 08:42:05 AM
The fact that XMRUSD is higher now than it was before the fake news hit suggests that I have been underestimating the size and growth of the economy.  I had previously considered the gap between my Fisher equation estimate and the market clearing price to indicate the degree of forward speculation, but if that were true I would have expected the reaction yesterday to be much stronger and more protracted, as short-horizon speculation should have been biased much more bearishly until the next squeeze caused a reset.  Instead, we see deep and persistent demand.  Either the committed longs have deeper pockets than I thought, or estimates based solely on alphabay statistics undervalue XMRUSD by roughly a factor of 2.
full member
Activity: 186
Merit: 100
April 15, 2017, 08:39:06 AM
And you can bet any money in the world, Joel Valenzuela (aka Ass Clown of the Year) is already tapping away at the keyboard preparing another follow up piece for the CoinTelegraph.

It even made the front page.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/monero-transactions-history-can-be-revealed-and-exposed-research

The head PR trolls of the darkcoin/xcoin/dash scam never rest. Trolling, lying and fuding are main parts of their coin algorithm.
full member
Activity: 212
Merit: 100
April 15, 2017, 07:03:26 AM
And you can bet any money in the world, Joel Valenzuela (aka Ass Clown of the Year) is already tapping away at the keyboard preparing another follow up piece for the CoinTelegraph.

It even made the front page.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/monero-transactions-history-can-be-revealed-and-exposed-research

legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
April 15, 2017, 01:10:25 AM
It seems the old resistance,  21usd, is the new support. now.
Somebody once said we'd have some time in the 20's this year...
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
April 15, 2017, 12:08:04 AM
It seems the old resistance,  21usd, is the new support. now.
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
April 14, 2017, 09:24:36 PM
https://twitter.com/random_walker/status/852918816455655425

what a scam! U druggies should have better invested into non criminal coins like LTC!
Oh, the irony!
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
April 14, 2017, 09:22:52 PM
This is precisely why we should actively be fighting an XMR vs SNARK war and leave lesser 'competitors' to rot.
You suggest a war, but aren't we all in this together?

Who we should be "fighting" is the reigning global fiat scam, not each other.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 14, 2017, 08:53:22 PM
https://twitter.com/random_walker/status/852918816455655425

what a scam! U druggies should have better invested into non criminal coins like LTC!

Well, look at that another one post ignore. Bravo

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 14, 2017, 08:01:36 PM

P.S. {Edit} BTW the hard fork is over?  Already?  I thought it was gonna be this weekend... hmm

It's really that hard to perform a non-contentious protocol upgrade.

Also it seem more and more this paper by the Zcash people was a hit job, with a domain registered a few days ago and published around the HF (few hours ago).

Yep this field is that nasty.

The key is non-contentious
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 14, 2017, 06:52:10 PM
I'm surprised you are all so calm about the paper.

I think all the privacy concerns except one were made moot by the January 2017 RingCT hard fork.

Actually most were addressed by the January 2016 fork which made mixins mandatory. The paper acknowledges this but gets it wrong in attributing it to RingCT. The fix actually happened much earlier:

Quote
The weakness studied in this section is primarily a concern for transactions made in the past, as transactions using the new RingCT transaction option are generally immune.

In fact the chart on page 6 of the paper shows the issue rapidly becoming irrelevant starting when the first MRL4 fix was deployed in January 2016.

The second part of the paper discusses temporal inferences, and while this is still being worked on the issue has also been largely mitigated.

Again, quoting the paper:

Quote
For versions 0.9.0 and prior, even up to 4 mixins, our simulation suggests that the newest input can be guessed correctly 75% of the time.

(Note that is somewhat misleading. A better wording would be that the guess is correct 75% of the time. However, you have no way to tell whether that guess is correct; you are still guessing.)

Now compare with what the paper says about the current version, as opposed one (0.9.0) from two years ago:

Quote
Under the current default behavior, i.e. 4 mixins and using the 0.10.1 sampling procedure, we estimate that the correct input ref- erence can be guessed with 45% probability (rather than the 20% ideal if all input references were equally likely).

45% is not ideal. We would like to see a 4-mixin transaction closer to the ideal of 20%. However, it is still ambiguous and mathematically untraceable (equivalent to an effective mix factor of 2.2). You can guess, and your guess will be right about 45% of the time, but you have no idea when. I.e. slightly worse than tossing a coin.

So yes, there is a lot of spin and FUD in how the paper is presented, even if its numerical results are correct (I have no reason to doubt that, but there could be errors too). It identifies no new issues at all, and the issues it identifies have already been mitigated, with existing plans to make further improvements.

hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
April 14, 2017, 06:41:50 PM

...it's like they are purposefully trying to scare people aka FUD.


Gee, ya think?  LOL

By my numbers, rough guess from this morning to now it looks like this entire FUD campaign has managed to knock just about something like fifty cents off the Monero price.  Whoop dee doo.

Or who knows, maybe that's just normal daily variance and they've accomplished NADA.

This FUDFAIL today seems to indicate in a very clear way why HoneyPony hasn't been part of the recent Whale Games, Pump & Dumpin' going on in the Alts world last couple months --- Monero HODL'ers are a tough crowd & ain't easy to fool.

Makes me really wanna buy more XMR but I'm pretty much all-in already LOL

P.S. {Edit} BTW the hard fork is over?  Already?  I thought it was gonna be this weekend... hmm
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
April 14, 2017, 05:54:03 PM
Seems Monero lowest fee just reduced by 5 times and are now 0.004 XMR or $0.081 what is 3 times less then Bitcoin with the difference that Monero transactions have no delays.
full member
Activity: 155
Merit: 100
April 14, 2017, 05:07:31 PM
Check my app for alt coins price forecasting http://denario.co.uk
It is still in beta, discrepancy between real and forecasted price sometimes is large but general trend is correct.
prices cannot be foreseen m8, technical analysis is bogus
newbie
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
April 14, 2017, 04:34:55 PM
Check my app for alt coins price forecasting http://denario.co.uk
It is still in beta, discrepancy between real and forecasted price sometimes is large but general trend is correct.
sr. member
Activity: 243
Merit: 250
April 14, 2017, 04:34:10 PM
I'm surprised you are all so calm about the paper.
Why wouldn't we be calm? The paper is one giant strawman. It might have been a big deal if it was published in 2015, but most of the issues presented have already been addressed. Those that haven't are far along in the process of being addressed. There's nothing critical or new here.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 14, 2017, 03:52:43 PM
This is precisely why we should actively be fighting an XMR vs SNARK war and leave lesser 'competitors' to rot.

You mean we should be slagging off Zcash instead of slagging of Dash?

Question: What flaw is present in both Zcash and Dash?
Hint. Monero just forked in order to improve on its solution to this flaw.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
April 14, 2017, 03:16:26 PM
Just popped in to see why my low bid got hit.

Thanks, Zcash - I just picked up a few more than I thought I might.   Seems the Zcash chaps are once again showing their ineptitude in pulling off anything from a launch to a FUD campaign.

I guess if they can't beat us with tech, then they have to try desperate stuff.  Won't work, though.

Honeypony don't give a shit.
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