[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 17.

dreamspark

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Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 08:10:26 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 07:31:13 AM

Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

It is a useful piece of information still. At least it is doubtful that the ownership is less than the number of miners.

No single source can give a complete answer to the number of users question, so we must take what is available and work from that.

Is it?

There are known botnets that have thousands of very low hash (5 h/s) connections.

What about all the miners who just mine for profits and instantly convert to btc?

rpietila

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Quote from: dreamspark on July 30, 2014, 07:31:13 AM

Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

It is a useful piece of information still. At least it is doubtful that the ownership is less than the number of miners.

No single source can give a complete answer to the number of users question, so we must take what is available and work from that.

rpietila

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Quote from: adhitthana on July 30, 2014, 07:57:45 AM

Are you suggesting people should pay more than 0.005 for XMR?

Probably, when XMR goes through 0.005 and especially 0.006 (that is a resistance), it will still be a buy.

But why bother as small amounts can still be bought at 0.0045..

I was fiercely advocating people to buy Bitcoin at $22, and still do at $575, because the higher price is proof of larger adoption, which means higher probability of success.

adhitthana

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Quote from: rpietila on July 20, 2014, 09:21:35 AM

So truly, now it is possible to make up if you were late from Bitcoin. Just take the 100:1 leverage (or more)

I will write about the XMR:BTC ratio concept more soon!

Haven't you been recommending people buy XMR up to 0.005? Or did I get this wrong?

dreamspark

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Quote from: MoneroMooo on July 30, 2014, 07:21:07 AM

Quote

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.$[a-zA-Z0-9]*$@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.

Lets be fair though finding out the number of miners connected to a pool has almost no bearing on users of the coin on any given day in history. Lets also not forget that even if in some way it could that would just show you the amount of miners connected to the known pools and tell you nothing of the private pools and also the solo miners.

MoneroMooo

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Quote

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

Miners can be estimated by the pool logs:

grep Accepted.*share pool.log | sed -e 's/ .*from.$[a-zA-Z0-9]*$@.*/ \1/' | awk '{if(!d[$1,$2]){d[$1,$2]=1;t[$1]++}}END{for(n in t){print n ": " t[n]}}' | sort

This outputs a list of number of miners per day.

Mine ranges from 1 to 4 (whee!) per day.

Of course, since miners change pools, you'll get an overestimate unless you feed the logs to this command at once so the same address isn't counted multiple times. Then this gives you a lower bound to total users. If you then know the typical miners/users ratio from other coins with a more public blockchain at a point in their history similar to XMR now, you can extrapolate miners to users too.

pinky

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Quote from: rpietila on July 30, 2014, 06:36:27 AM

I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated...

Have you thought about asking Poloniex exchange? XMR is currently pretty centralized (50-70% volume) on Poloniex and in the past weeks they had 80% of all volume, I am sure by telling you this numbers for your research they wouldn't be breaching any confidentiality - they even had counter of all users and currently logged in users and XMR was 90% of their trade volume.

rpietila

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The all-time volume weighted average price of XMR is 0.00426 by the way, with approximately normal distribution centered around this price, and 81% of the volume of the trades in [0.002, 0.006] range. Volume is denominated in XMR.

If the volume is denominated in BTC though, the average is higher, at 0.00485.

rpietila

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I have been searching for data to estimate the number of users in any given day of history. Any such data is appreciated and small bounties will be given for any information that might help to estimate anything related to this. Currently the usercount numbers are too speculative to be published, and all further econometrics that might be derived from having them available is lost to the world.

rpietila

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Notes: The price is a volume-weighted daily average of:
- OTC thread, until
- Cryptonote exchange, until
- Poloniex.

So it is likely quite close to the actual market price. The very beginning is set to 20ksat due to volume considerations.

The volume only counts the abovementioned sources, so it understates the actual volume quite a bit.

The number of coins is according to model, so it might deviate slightly (~1%) of the actual.

rpietila

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The table of some of the historical figures of Monero:

Code:

Day Date #XMR (kxmr) ksat/xmr mktcap (btc) volume(kxmr) inflation/day
1 18.4.2014 16 20 3 0 162,46 %
2 19.4.2014 41 20 8 0 61,81 %
3 20.4.2014 66 20 13 0 38,15 %
4 21.4.2014 91 20 18 0 27,58 %
5 22.4.2014 117 20 23 1 21,59 %
6 23.4.2014 142 20 28 2 17,73 %
7 24.4.2014 167 20 33 2 15,04 %
8 25.4.2014 192 20 38 10 13,05 %
9 26.4.2014 217 20 43 5 11,53 %
10 27.4.2014 242 25 61 16 10,32 %
11 28.4.2014 267 25 67 6 9,35 %
12 29.4.2014 292 25 73 0 8,54 %
13 30.4.2014 317 30 95 2 7,85 %
14 1.5.2014 342 30 103 2 7,27 %
15 2.5.2014 367 36 132 12 6,77 %
16 3.5.2014 392 39 153 8 6,33 %
17 4.5.2014 416 44 183 9 5,95 %
18 5.5.2014 441 80 353 18 5,60 %
19 6.5.2014 466 124 578 13 5,30 %
20 7.5.2014 491 134 657 5 5,03 %
21 8.5.2014 515 102 526 4 4,78 %
22 9.5.2014 540 109 588 3 4,55 %
23 10.5.2014 564 104 587 3 4,35 %
24 11.5.2014 589 112 660 6 4,16 %
25 12.5.2014 614 130 798 21 3,99 %
26 13.5.2014 638 140 893 25 3,83 %
27 14.5.2014 663 135 894 25 3,69 %
28 15.5.2014 687 120 824 25 3,55 %
29 16.5.2014 711 100 711 50 3,42 %
30 17.5.2014 736 100 736 11 3,31 %
31 18.5.2014 760 90 684 12 3,20 %
32 19.5.2014 784 314 2463 15 3,09 %
33 20.5.2014 809 595 4811 170 3,00 %
34 21.5.2014 833 378 3148 132 2,90 %
35 22.5.2014 857 353 3025 72 2,82 %
36 23.5.2014 881 391 3445 97 2,74 %
37 24.5.2014 905 645 5839 75 2,66 %
38 25.5.2014 929 608 5650 83 2,59 %
39 26.5.2014 953 494 4710 74 2,52 %
40 27.5.2014 977 427 4173 38 2,45 %
41 28.5.2014 1 001 414 4146 75 2,39 %
42 29.5.2014 1 025 349 3578 52 2,33 %
43 30.5.2014 1 049 260 2728 75 2,28 %
44 31.5.2014 1 073 302 3241 62 2,22 %
45 1.6.2014 1 097 327 3587 64 2,17 %
46 2.6.2014 1 121 284 3183 27 2,12 %
47 3.6.2014 1 145 279 3194 48 2,08 %
48 4.6.2014 1 168 284 3318 28 2,03 %
49 5.6.2014 1 192 258 3076 49 1,99 %
50 6.6.2014 1 216 212 2578 71 1,95 %
51 7.6.2014 1 239 212 2628 30 1,91 %
52 8.6.2014 1 263 201 2539 29 1,87 %
53 9.6.2014 1 287 218 2805 38 1,83 %
54 10.6.2014 1 310 273 3577 100 1,80 %
55 11.6.2014 1 334 279 3721 47 1,76 %
56 12.6.2014 1 357 286 3882 63 1,73 %
57 13.6.2014 1 381 300 4142 44 1,70 %
58 14.6.2014 1 404 406 5701 111 1,67 %
59 15.6.2014 1 428 444 6339 54 1,64 %
60 16.6.2014 1 451 524 7603 132 1,61 %
61 17.6.2014 1 474 493 7268 64 1,58 %
62 18.6.2014 1 498 446 6680 60 1,55 %
63 19.6.2014 1 521 527 8015 76 1,53 %
64 20.6.2014 1 544 640 9883 127 1,50 %
65 21.6.2014 1 567 856 13417 118 1,48 %
66 22.6.2014 1 591 755 12009 89 1,46 %
67 23.6.2014 1 614 725 11699 74 1,43 %
68 24.6.2014 1 637 570 9330 83 1,41 %
69 25.6.2014 1 660 540 8964 43 1,39 %
70 26.6.2014 1 683 526 8852 23 1,37 %
71 27.6.2014 1 706 410 6995 68 1,35 %
72 28.6.2014 1 729 414 7158 49 1,33 %
73 29.6.2014 1 752 419 7341 35 1,31 %
74 30.6.2014 1 775 414 7348 30 1,29 %
75 1.7.2014 1 798 379 6813 28 1,27 %
76 2.7.2014 1 821 367 6682 26 1,25 %
77 3.7.2014 1 843 401 7392 41 1,24 %
78 4.7.2014 1 866 429 8006 40 1,22 %
79 5.7.2014 1 889 400 7556 14 1,20 %
80 6.7.2014 1 912 378 7226 20 1,19 %
81 7.7.2014 1 934 339 6558 29 1,17 %
82 8.7.2014 1 957 352 6889 31 1,16 %
83 9.7.2014 1 980 338 6692 23 1,14 %
84 10.7.2014 2 002 327 6548 32 1,13 %
85 11.7.2014 2 025 294 5953 45 1,11 %
86 12.7.2014 2 048 284 5815 25 1,10 %
87 13.7.2014 2 070 261 5403 46 1,09 %
88 14.7.2014 2 093 284 5943 38 1,07 %
89 15.7.2014 2 115 318 6726 44 1,06 %
90 16.7.2014 2 137 400 8550 104 1,05 %
91 17.7.2014 2 160 505 10907 112 1,04 %
92 18.7.2014 2 182 444 9689 82 1,02 %
93 19.7.2014 2 205 453 9987 41 1,01 %
94 20.7.2014 2 227 435 9687 32 1,00 %
95 21.7.2014 2 249 488 10976 60 0,99 %
96 22.7.2014 2 271 510 11584 62 0,98 %
97 23.7.2014 2 294 484 11101 65 0,97 %
98 24.7.2014 2 316 431 9981 94 0,96 %
99 25.7.2014 2 338 423 9889 60 0,95 %
100 26.7.2014 2 369 452 10707 39 0,93 %
101 27.7.2014 2 391 431 10305 37 0,92 %
102 28.7.2014 2 413 439 10593 43 0,91 %

rpietila

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 01:56:37 PM

Quote from: Triffin on July 29, 2014, 08:18:55 AM

Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

You must let go of the legacy methods and embrace the new eventually. If those of us in the thick of it don't, then who can be expected to? The Nxt AE would be great for this. If people remain in the past with these things; especially when guided to, then progress becomes much less progressive.

Please go set up such a thing! I want to see how it works.

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: smooth on July 29, 2014, 03:46:59 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 07:38:44 AM

Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 04:57:14 AM

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-xmr-large-trade-otc-716331

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.

Looks nice!

smooth

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Quote from: dEBRUYNE on July 29, 2014, 07:38:44 AM

Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 04:57:14 AM

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

Let's start with this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-xmr-large-trade-otc-716331

It can evolve to meet the needs of those participating, if any.

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: Triffin on July 29, 2014, 08:18:55 AM

Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

I think a thread here on bitcointalk with some reputable members would be a better idea. Some people don't have the time or willingness to learn how to use the AE..

Triffin

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Wouldn't NXT asset exchange ( AE ) work for what you propose ??

Triff ..

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 04:57:14 AM

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

I would also be interested in this, maybe some one reputable can set this up?

rpietila

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One possibility would be a market batch eg. 5,000 XMR. One would always be able to buy or sell one with the market maker, or list several for sale. I once had such a thing for $500 f/v bags of silver.

smooth

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Quote from: nakaone on July 29, 2014, 04:57:14 AM

there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

Not a bad idea. I wonder how to organize it though. I occasionally get PMs but rarely do I hear from both sides at the same time.

Big traders don't want to show their hand, so listing on a thread is probably not going to work.

nakaone

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there is no otc for xmr anymore is there? - I think if a reputable person in this forum would supervise an otc, larger investors as well as larger sellers would be better off.

buying even mediocre amounts is complicated without moving the price too much

Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 17. (Read 70088 times)