Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 22. (Read 70088 times)

What is the total range of XMR trading ever, including all outliers?

I gather it should be about 0.00039 - 0.01110. If so, these are only 28x apart from each other 

For any other coin, it's more. With Bitcoin, the range is 0.001 - 1,236;  difference being 1,236,000x. 

Actually, it is remarkably stable since start, no large pumps and dumps along the way. Mean average price rising since may.

Estimates based on % hodlings of various addresses of BTC-LTC +  2 anon coins DRK-XC

XMR :
0-0.1              45%
0.1-1              4%
1-10               25%
10-100           15%
100-1K           8%
1K-10K           2%
10K-100K       1%
100K+            ~

These are rough numbers from the graph but this is address based not individual based.

I think 1-1K XMR will be the heaviest range in the future

Actually the likely result is 1% owning 50% of it, as is the case in both the Case A and Case B in this thread (!). And with Bitcoin (!).

This to me is the proof that the plan is working. With , it is not so. And the reason is that they have wanted to do it quickly, to get all the coins, and be able to soon conduct a pump&dump. With Monero, you cannot do it.

I cannot directly help you with this analysis and appreciate what you are doing, but I have a few concerns:

I followed monero from the otc time and probably the first ten pages of the thread. AFAIK there were little to no buys over the counter with more than 10000 xmr volume. Even otc it was very hard to aquire reasonable amounts of xmr. I cannot speak for the OTC in freenode (?)/ IIRC. Maybe some powerful miners would have the possibility to get a six digit amount of xmr - but to buy them would be quite complicated.

It is probably just an educated guess but I think the group of 1000 to 10000 is underrepresentated to the cost of the group above and below. My idea is that you probably cannot use the normal distribution which is neccessary for power law, because altcoiners are probably not the perfect representative group for that - I assume this group is capped at the top.

Monero seems to be quite unstable. What's wrong with the price?

The presumed reason for the lengthy Monero emission process is to ensure a wide and fair distribution. Won't 20% of Monero owners end up with 80% of the currency, as per the Pareto principle, regardless of how long the emission process lasts? If so, then why not speed it up and get it over with? Have there been any studies of length of distribution and volume of emission that would validate the current Monero plan?

So, what the Monero economics thread will tell us about fall in price. Uh?

Not all of the altcoins that you dont own are shit, even though most of 'em are.

The banner looks nice, but like the intruder said, I would like to keep this one a little personal to me, like I have had several threads before.

1. I know what place in Monero holdings I am most likely occupying. And the ones above me are not economists, so it is only my responsibility to speak out concerning topics that I find interesting and beneficial.

2. It is true that since I own only BTC and Monero, these are the only two coins I have incentive to pump. I know it is hard to swallow for shitcoiners 

When talking about wealth distribution in general, it has been found that the wealth of the highest 3% conforms to the power law, so that there are 1/2 the number of people that are twice as rich, until at the top there is a single person.

In the world this holds true until we get to the 10-billionaires. There the trail ends, even though according to the power law, 100 times richer people should exist. It is most plausible that they have hidden the wealth.

If the number of people went to less than half when doubling the wealth, most of the wealth would belong to average people.

If the number of people were more than half when doubling the wealth, most of the wealth would belong to the ultra-rich.

Wikipedia:"power law"

For it to be realistic to apply power law to coin holdings, we need to assume that there has been enough time and liquidity for everyone to balance their holdings to exactly the amount that they wish. I think this assumption is realistic, since the exchanges have been available almost since the beginning, and there has been lots of liquidity and price action there.

What is more difficult for me to estimate is the number of holders. But as long as the power law distribution in the higher end holds true, even doubling the number of users has no large effect on the top, as evidenced by the example distributions.

Reminder for everyone: on top of OP of each "officially sanctionned" sister thread, there is a banner linking to other threads.

Soon, a Monero subforum will be necessary

@rpietila

Yes, have seen you many times there. But you seem to be trying to control the Monero economy by opening new moderated threads where you control who talks what

I have nothing against anyone, but deep down looks like rpietila is trying to pump Monero

Don't be so aggressive - if you followed those threads yourself, you would have seen me there many times

(I am not compelling anyone to follow my threads, people do it voluntarily!)

i dont know if this assumption is right, because nobody knows how much others are holding.
have you something to read for me about the power law?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-economy-597878

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-xmr-speculation-thread-622708

Go check the official Monero thread and then have a look at the sister threads

And why should people follow your thread instead?

Be kind and list all the Monero threads with links and short introduction as to why I/anyone should be following them in your next post or stop cluttering this one!

(Which is the reason altcoin threads are a pain to read)