[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 19.

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Quote from: Febo on July 23, 2014, 01:34:03 PM

I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.

But it might make a huge difference. If a whale wants to move some coins and another whale wants to buy Monero for a different crypto he is holding, it is off the order book, so to speak. Seems like it can increase liquidity also. And perhaps the anonymous nature of Monero fuels this more. More variables just got added...

I say things are getting more interesting.

Febo

legendary

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I see it as Poloniex tries to keep as much trading of Monero on their exchange as possible. Monero was 60-70% Poloniex volume from time it joined. I agree will not make huge difference. But still is some recognition of the coin.

3x2

legendary

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Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 07:42:57 AM

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

i want more Grin

its not perfect yet.

damashup

sr. member

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Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 12:45:40 PM

Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

Until it's possible exchange Monero for fiat, I don't see the point of these markets. Way too early.

Skinnkavaj

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English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Monero just got even bigger now when Poloniex decided to add XMR markets

Febo

legendary

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Quote from: Skinnkavaj on July 23, 2014, 07:42:57 AM

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

lol you sure? Would not you like to have more distributed on your part? I would for sure on mine. Grin

Skinnkavaj

sr. member

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English Motherfucker do you speak it ?

Monero distrubition is perfect. I love it.

HardwarePal

hero member

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I think this is relevant to post

I am personally doing a small survey about XMR for all the people interested in completing it :

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1JqIXkjKpcEpv6lyH6SD22f_Ny0i-rhM9bV21WcOFstw/viewform

I will be posting graphs when I have a large enough data sample.

bobabouey2

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Quote from: fluffypony on July 22, 2014, 06:07:06 PM

Quote from: statdude on July 22, 2014, 04:33:37 PM

Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

Well, that comment is a perfect excuse to donate another 100XMR to the development fund in accordance with the Monero Community Hall of Fame (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monero-community-hall-of-fame-700400).

Thanks greatly to all the developers.

fluffypony

donator

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GetMonero.org / MyMonero.com

Quote from: statdude on July 22, 2014, 04:33:37 PM

Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

We all got some early mining or buying done, but we also sold to cover costs early on. I'm quite fine with being transparent, and we've occasionally spoken amongst ourselves about our respective "stash" (although the "make our stash worth more" context has been notably lacking). Including myself, I would guess that we collectively have substantially less than 50 000 XMR, probably closer to 30 000 XMR between the 7 of us.

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

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Any ideas around the stake of the dev team as a whole?

Obviously tough to get a big share with XMR but I know some of them like TacoTime got some really cheap early buys.

Glad that the community is supporting those guys committing time to the project.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 01:41:48 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 01:15:28 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top 20, close to top 10.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.

The only way of having more of large holdings, and preserve statistical credibility (individual holding size is determined from random variables and behaves according to statistical distributions), is to have significantly fewer overall holdings. Such as if there were only 300 Monero investors, it would make sense that every other of them had 10,000. But with 8,000 holders as is now the consensus, the average holding is <300 XMR and the median is <100. Everyone with 10,000 is a whale and this is an undisputable fact.

HardwarePal

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 01:15:28 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Not that big of a stash but would apparently place in top XXX, close to top XXX.
Find it a little odd that there is not considerably more users with larger holdings, but hey.

Its all estimations as I doubt anyone would say hey I have X amount of XMR, not to mention that not everyone likes being exposed.

HardwarePal

hero member

Activity: 565

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

I have learned from this thread my relative XMR holdings bigger than first thought
I thought there was a bunch of orcas investing, it's mostly tuna

Amount of your holdings +- ?

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: dga on July 22, 2014, 01:01:33 PM

Quote from: luigi1111 on July 22, 2014, 09:57:41 AM

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:51:40 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 06:35:44 AM

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:31:40 AM

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? Wink

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. Grin

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale. I don't know of any others who approach that size.

Please elaborate. You think it is an early BTC holder or ?

dga

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Quote from: luigi1111 on July 22, 2014, 09:57:41 AM

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:51:40 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 06:35:44 AM

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:31:40 AM

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? Wink

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. Grin

I believe you and I are thinking of the same whale. I don't know of any others who approach that size.

luigi1111

legendary

Activity: 1105

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Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:51:40 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2014, 06:35:44 AM

Quote from: HardwarePal on July 22, 2014, 06:31:40 AM

For me the 300-400K is a non-issue and will be gobbled up on the market in roughly 3-6months when people see the true longterm value of Monero.

We're not saying its an issue, we're speculating about the amount and weight of the top few holders.

If someone still has that many coins now with all the attention around XMR they are unlikely to be offloading a significant amount due to liquidity and by the time its liquid enough they won't want to sell them, in fact who does? Wink

True but not everyone follows the 10/200 strategy http://david.latapie.name/blog/extended-10200-strategy/ like David has analysed.

Then we have some people that need the money and some that are happy with X $ amount or do it solely for BTC.

For the next 4 years I think that XMR will strive but the issue after the initial emission curve to me is something Fred Wilson from Paypal has mentioned :

“I also think we need to see real transaction volume happen. Right now, most people who get bitcoin hold it, they don’t transact with it. That’s part of what causes all of the volatility — if there was a very vibrant system where bitcoin was just getting swapped around like crazy, the velocity of the money would cause bitcoin’s price to stabilize and there would be a much more liquid market. I think those are the kinds of things an economist would want to see.”

I think Father Risto is not far of with his 260K calculation for the top holder

"I am now fairly certain that the 5 largest holders together own 20-35% of the total supply" this will probably be lower in the future imo.

Risto's estimation was 280k. My correction was just <260k. I'm impressed that his theoretical analysis has come so close to the truth (unless there is a larger holder I don't know about, but that seems pretty unlikely).
Edit: seems pretty unlikely that there's two holders that large, not that I would or wouldn't know about it. Grin

drawingthesun

legendary

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Quote from: pandher on July 22, 2014, 09:12:15 AM

Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

At the moment we can't really advise merchants to start using Monero because the core code needs a lot of work. Many merchants that may try to use Monero in its current form will likely be turned off forever.

Once the bandwidth and ram issues are sorted, the team will incorporate one of the GUI developments and then Monero will be ready for merchant use.

onemorebtc

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Quote from: pandher on July 22, 2014, 09:12:15 AM

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

its just the same as cash and same regulations will apply (eg passport when buying a car, nothing when buying xxx or drugs)

pandher

legendary

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Stagnation is Death

Aminorex reminded me when talking about merchant acceptance for XMR in the polobox.

What do you guys think about this, how will the governments be reacting to completely untraceable transactions.? Will they try to ban the project citing obvious reasons?

I have been thinking about this since XMR genesis started. Never found anyone taking a deeper look at this side. All i see is price talks

Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 19. (Read 70088 times)