Although i agree with you in most of your arguments, i read sometimes now, that the higher max supply of verge, compared to bitcoin, has any influence to that. I dont think this is true. Of course the higher max suplly is responsible for a much lower price. But there will be a decreased number of new coins coming to the market. It can influence the price. Of course it will not double the price. But it could happen, that the price increases a bit. If you look at the last bitcoin halving, it took some time after that, but then bitcoin price rised. Att his time, just to keep the price as it is, there must be a demand that is high enough to compensate the new coins that come to the market. So if the demand (and i also mean the demand for the new mined coins) stay as it is, but the number of new mined coins decrease, this could result in an increasing price. We will see, hey it is crypto... Noone knows.
Regarding mining: In the end, there will be a lot of miners, that will switch to other coins. And after a few days, the earnings will distribute through the different coins. So i think the mining earnings will, after a short while, only go down a little bit. Of course it maybe, that the earnings will go down today, immediately after the halving, significantly. But it will go up again after a while. There will be less miners for verge, this means lower dificulty, this means more earnings for the miners that stay. A lot of people anyway do multimining with autoswitch, they will switch to other coins (this means the difficulty for that other coins will rise, and they earn less there...) After a while there will be a new balance again and everything will be fine.
The problem in your calculation or scenario is that you think that the big majority of demand is created by mining, but that is not the case. All the demand is/will be covered by the excisting cicrulating suppoly that is allready on exchanges or will go there easyly if needed. This is the main problem with high max. supply coins. It would need a lot that some extra supply is needed.
Just did some reasearch. On average for the last 15 days 1.412 blocks per day are mined, means about 2,259,200 XVG/daily. After halving in theory it would be half of it, 1,100,000. This number will fluctuade a bit forworth and backworth up to how many miners switch and if the remaining will compensate it by less difficulty. In the end it should be the same, meaning around 1,100,000 XVG are generated daily.
As said in my previous post, the change of less daily mineded XVG compared to the excisting XGV circulating supply is about 0,007 daily. Have in mind that again, dailly you get again some new 1.1M XVG and that it did not stop at all.
I will try to make another example:
The last 24 hours the 24h XVG volume was ~$100,400,000 USD, means there are 1,434,285,714 XVG traded the last 24 hours. You now get maybe the idea that these 1M XVG less daily do NOT There is make any change at all at the exchange. There is just enough supply for the demand in circulation allready.
It would be a different story IF a sudden the demand is 2x higher than the available supply. THAN indeed the new mined coins had an impact.
Conclusion, we miners won't feel the halving in price at all, it will be mostly something in the range of 0.0001 USD, at very most.
I'm just thing it may be possible that the miners that will shutdown, will also be the ones selling off, but will keep monitoring the market's reaction after tomorrow's halving.