Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 8. (Read 269515 times)
I think you are overdoing it a little with the extrapolations.
That works. Sell in May, come back Halloween. 
Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
Woops! Yes, I completely agree. Extrapolated onto the wrong chart
This puts us at a bottom around $30 in November, later this year (which I think is definitely plausible), and $100 again by next July...
Here we go (edited previous comment):
Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
a bottom in 2014 april will be nice .... a year full of chop chop It won't surprise me, and nevertheless April 2014 is just around the corner. What would really surprise me is a multi-year (2/3) bear market as BrightAnarchist predicts. I really can't see how that could happen.
Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
a bottom in 2014 april will be nice .... a year full of chop chop
Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
nice extrapolation ))
You should laugh, but I have a feeling, based on special subset of my indicators, which says that my short buy @~65 may transform into long position. 30% probability estimation.
Really good call on this!
On a wave basis, we have 9 waves down from the July 21st high - specifically, looking like a wave 4 finished near $100 and we had a fifth wave impulse down from there to complete a larger impulse (9 waves visible on a chart is typical because it means one of the impulse waves extended, giving you 1-2-3-4-(1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) in this case). So we could easily mean-revert back to $100 from here as a correction of the burgeoning Wave C downtrend.
Yep.
Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.
Now you're talking. I'm 100% USD at the moment.
I wasn't convinced by the price action lately - too much coasting around in the high 90's for my liking.
I'm waiting for lower prices.
Something like this?
Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.
The bearish triangle one?
Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.
A few days ago I was just wondering why your ignore button was so bright... I still have no idea why so many people put you into ignore; I'm curious to know that, but I've never weighted your posts based on that thing! Actually, apart from the curiosity about "why", I never cared.
Well, lucif has always been a fun read, but there were times in which his ultra-bearish analysis was not welcomed... And to be honest, almost always wrong. For example, check the posts in this thread from mid January onwards, he was ultra bear while the price was consistently going UP UP UP, there were quite a few flamewars in here, if I don't remember it wrong the "blue guy" and cypher even wanted to remove him from their subscription services
Lucif was wrong for a long time on his analysis, but at least always provided TA insights that supported bearish scenarios, which was something that we totally lacked in this community, which is ultra-bullish by definition. He went a little bit extreme tough, I remember how he always wrote about this being "the doomsday thread", where only bearish analysis had space... No bullish counts allowed
And this while Bitcoin was at the doors a huge run-up to $266 Maybe that had something to do with his glaring ignore button
Don't be offended lucif, I'm a regular of this thread because right or wrong I always enjoyed it. While you were a bear in Jan-Feb I held like a mofo regardless of what you said, but I learnt a lot of TA and EW.
We just like to compare I guess.
Onhourly daily SMA20 is also similar. Price was spot on it for 2 weeks before we went down, than on top of envelop and then down below envelop as price tuched SMA200 again.
Not prediction, just observation
On
Not prediction, just observation
IMO this market has too many small bot trades for SMA to be useful. Weighted is the way to go.
And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this
will end up like this
I thought so of course. I don't know what happened, maybe this idea became too popular. But I see this is going not to be happen with 50/50 estimation.will end up like this
Rebound in Aug 2011 wasn't impulsive, but current is.
And yeah, current correction looks like 4th wave. I'd prefer to compare it with another 4th one (Aug-Dec 2012).
We just like to compare I guess.
Onhourly daily SMA20 is also similar. Price was spot on it for 2 weeks before we went down, than on top of envelop and then down below envelop as price tuched SMA200 again.
Not prediction, just observation
On
Not prediction, just observation
Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.
And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this
will end up like this
i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.
That looks accurate
There's one main difference: in 2011 the bounce from SMA200 was a new low (~$5.50), considerably lower than the previous one (the one right after bubble burst at $10). In 2013 that bounce point ($65) is considerably higher than the after-burst low ($50).
Of course it could play out like that, but your comparison is not an indication in my mind.
Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.
And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this
will end up like this
i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.
That looks accurate
"Accurate"? Strange choice of words for a time period comparison that can only be confirmed in the future.
Relevant? Not so much. As will be proven when we break $115 today and $130 in a couple of weeks.
Hey, lucif! Do you have your SC set up correctly? Neither my SierraChart or Bitcoincharts shows a doji for last week. The only doji I see is this current week and the triangle C was close.
he dont use UTC thats the problem Jump to: