Topic: Yet another analyst - page 8. (Read 10476 times)

Seems like an eternity since that crash on Monday, and then all the trader influencers were starting to look like geniuses calling the top at 9k. Yet here we are again on friday looking like we could be doing another 10k. I feel like someone or some people are taking a piss out of us all, and steadily making 5%-10% on this oscillating weeks.

Seems like less than 24 hours ago, I was wondering if we were going to get back into the $9ks... so yeah... a curious place to be.

Impressive recovery on the daily chart. Approaching 4-hour pivot resistance now. Very interested to see if BTC can manage to close the day above that $9,560 area.



If sellers don't come in soon, that was one hell of a bear trap. Bitfinex shorts are up 30% in the past few days.....

Yes, this is totally right, my first chart ignores it, thanks for pointing that.
Also we should keep in mind the huge correction starting from 2018 January can turn into a WXY (I considered a huge ABC before April 2020 but the current move eliminated that wave structure...), which can break down 4k level and turn the triangle's C-D-E into a A-B-C and lead us to 2500-1800 level...

This is both a curse and a blessing for elliott waves, tons of probabilities that confuses you but also prepares you for every weird possibility...

I agree about BTC's tendency towards extremes in both directions. The lower bound of the triangle is in the $4K area, which is not totally off the table.

However I believe the panic levels would be muted compared to the March crash, which I view as a January 2015-like capitulation. I would expect something more like August 2015, with a significantly higher low.

That's why I would not necessarily target the triangle bound. In EW, Wave E often doesn't make it all the way there. The 0.618-0.705 zone (maybe down to the 0.786) is more attractive.

Been reading your posts since xxxx123abcxxxx's threads. Good to find your own thread, your last analysis really makes sense. Considering the halving pump, I also still think that we are in a bear market since 2018 january. And a huge triangle which you also have stated is a really likely pattern after a huge bull run.
I also want to add that, because of the crazy FUD and FOMO levels we have in bitcoin, it is likely to see another crazy wick towards 3-4k usd area. Here is an analysis I have made 2 months ago.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/GwAi28Tp-BTC-28-February-2020-A-Perfect-End-to-A-Perfect-Triangle/
which also can state another huge wick is likely.

Here is my current point of view. Would love to hear your opinion.


And lets not forget this crazy DJI crash after the dotcom bubble...

Now that we have a potential mid-term top in place, I want to provide an update to the multi-year triangle idea and offer an alternative path forward.

In Elliott Wave theory, triangle bounds are not formed by existing trend lines (like the one extending from $19,666). The bounds are formed by the A-C and B-D lines. Assuming the $10,074 high completed Wave D, then the aqua converging lines shown here are now the basis for our triangle:



The 200-week MA is edging higher, now standing around $5,800. It's possible the market is setting up for another (shallower) 200-week MA test, just like it did in August 2015.

According to EW guidelines:

• Wave E is usually a zigzag family pattern or the same type of Triangle as the larger pattern.
• In a contracting triangle, Wave E normally retraces Wave D by about 70%.

So I like this idea for two reasons. Not only does the 70% retracement guideline line up perfectly with the 200-week MA, but such a correction would also suggest a Wave E contracting triangle. This would make the anticipated breakout (in late 2020 or early 2021) very easy to recognize.

Update on short levels:



Bitmex funding rates are still trending positive as well. Despite the crash, the market isn't being heavily shorted. This is generally a bearish sign. Also no immediate retrace, just sideways below the 0.382, which is not very bullish. Possible path for a dead cat bounce:



That was a really high volume dump candle, the highest daily USD volume on Coinbase Pro since March 13th. That's another sign the March-May rally is exhausted.

Unless bulls surprise me and retake control above that $9,560 pivot, I'm expecting more downside.

Bulls were too overconfident after all. This is the shakeout I've been nervous about:



The flush ended right in the area of the daily pivot and 200-day MA. There's a chance the market goes no lower than that.

The next day or two are crucial. I want to see if bears start piling on shorts as this consolidates, which could indicate a bear trap. More importantly, I want to see whether this dump quickly and fully retraces, which would indicate strong bull market behavior.

If the market gets back above the $9,560 daily high, it's game over for bears. Conversely if this bleeds into a bearish consolidation, the area around the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($7K) and daily S1 ($6,700) become attractive target levels.

Thanks for info, over-leveverged longs is never a good sign,  neither is greed in my opinion even if not very high. Furthermore, moon calls below 10.5K critical resistance makes no sense, as do any claims of a head & shoulders macro pattern that requires a break of the 4K neckline to confirm (very uninteresting).
Keep up the TA, I'm still keeping an eye at a distance instead enjoying sunshine 

Sentiment is beginning to make me nervous. Shorts have been obliterated down to February levels, longs rising significantly:



The Fear & Greed index is now registering "greed":



In general, I'm seeing lots of moon calls now too. Still seeing a few bears around but they've mostly gone quiet, and shorts have obviously been massacred.

On price action alone, the small intraday pullback off $10K doesn't look like a significant top. But sentiment tells me we might be forming one over the next few days. A classic BTC shakeout may be in the cards:

The market doesn't have to fill that gap, although it probably will at some point.

After a choppy breakout, we've finally got some movement:



Daily R1 is at $10K, could see some profit taking there. I'm looking to start deleveraging soon myself. However I wouldn't be surprised to consolidate and eventually push to that R2 level towards the mid-$11Ks.

That would be the perfect stopping point for this triangle scenario drawn in March:

CME Futures Gap at $7,625 and David said "Of course, I would prefer we go ahead and fill the CME Futures Gap at $7,625 "BEFORE" we continue going up rather than after we go up. Filling the gap afterward (as mentioned in the Aqua Blue Text Bubble) holds us back from going as high on this current run up till last week of May to first week of June. My opinion of course."

Maybe we'll see the $7K again

Price is starting to form an ascending triangle from the horizontal channel on the 4hr now, am therefore leaning bullish with confirmation from a break out of the strong resistance level around $9,350. Another higher lower on smaller time-frames would definitely confirm this bullish triangle formation at least, otherwise we may just be confirming the long-term resistance trend-line from the 20K, 14K and 10.5K highs as previously referenced testing and now is around $9,470 by my drawings on a Weekly scale.



Will be interesting to see what happens either way. Don't be surprised to see $14K soon or a re-test of $7K after the halving in my opinion.

Still building out this consolidation in the $8,000s. It's a bull flag until proven otherwise. Bullish headfake off the lower bands here:



The 4-hour bands are pretty tight, should be a solid breakout coming within the next day or two. Looking for a close above $9,100 or below $8,600. Everything in between is noise.

If the market breaks down, I would look for a wick through the 200-day MA ($7,995) and the 4-hour S1 pivot in the $7,800s.

Most traders I know are bullish, but a couple are looking at similar scenarios:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/h12mACut-Wyckoff-Take-III-the-floor-gives-way-back-to-where-we-started/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/2nOcSsww-CHANCE-For-a-Shakeout-on-Wednesday-May-6-2020-to-low-7K-s/

Also realise we reached the measured move from the ascending triangle around $9.5K (wicking to the resistance trend-line in red), the one that neither of us believed would be reached for a number of reasons. To me it looks like the short-term top is in, based on the rejection from this critical resistance level, and therefore a correction will continue until proven otherwise.


I'm now expecting a pull-back to $6,800 (VPVR POC) to $7,075 (100 Week MA) at minimum, possibly even re-test the 200 Week MA after the halving around $6K. All of these prices would still be long-term bullish however. Others expect the 100 & 200 Day MAs to hold around $8K, though given the failures the previous two times, this seems unlikely to me. It didn't act as any resistance on the way up, therefore unlikely to act as local support on the way down either. I'm also out of long positions and trading account is back in fiat, I'll start paying attention again from $7.5K and lower.



Short-term, we are now on a TD Sequential 9 sell signal on the Daily, that previously called the short-term tops in March & April this year, as well as following an aggressive & sequential 13. For sequential traders, these are alarm bells for selling. This suggests at minimum a 1-4 candle correction as previously occurred, but otherwise I'm learning towards a 9 candle count of downside to confirm a trend change, hopefully with a good buying opportunity on a Red 9 buy signal. In summary, we were oversold at $5K, now we are overbought above $9K, and we've all seen these extreme price swings before and where it leads.

If we break through $10K with convincing volume and remain above it, I'll be more or less fully bullish, but the odds of this seem pretty low right now. Lots of sell volume on a Red 8 in oversold conditions on the RSI indicates a cool-off is necessary unless price goes parabolic in an unsustainable way.

The daily closed as a shooting star after all, a potential top signal:



Very strong volume too, the highest since the March crash. As mentioned earlier, volume extremes often indicate reversal points. However, I'm not convinced about a significant correction until I see sellers follow through below yesterday's low of $8,407.

Update on the long term triangle:


Watching the stock market closely. Lots of terrible earnings numbers being released. Volatility spiked up, and showing some weakness here off the 0.618:



"Buy the lockdown, sell the reopening?" We'll see.

That's a nice fat wick through the R1 pivot!



The daily candle looks like a bearish shooting star at the moment, but there's still 14 hours for bulls to close it back up. Volume too, looks like it'll end up quite high, high enough to suggest bullish exhaustion. This has the potential to be a significant top.

Got the push into the $9,000s I was hoping for, longs closed. Wish I had the balls to short up there but it was too risky. Happy to be back on the sidelines. Let's see how these next 4-hour and daily candles close.

The trend is your friend


... with caveats...

 

The market finally triggered the daily BB squeeze! Powerful move into the upper $8,000s resistance zone mentioned above:



Half my longs were closed into that wick. Stops are in profit now, letting the rest ride for a possible move into the $9,000s. Happy to be taking some risk off though.

Daily R1 pivot is just overhead around $9,200. It could provide a stopping point to this rally. I'll be really impressed if the market can break and hold above the March monthly pivot highs.

I notice that everyone is getting really bullish. Remember, people get really bearish near major bottoms (like they were in March) and really bullish near major tops. During BTC rallies no one wants to sell, but the reversal can come very suddenly, and then everyone is running for the exits.