Topic: Yet another analyst - page 9. (Read 10476 times)

Not much follow through on last week's breakout. No closes above the bands, just chopping upwards very slowly. Maybe the market wants to see higher highs in stocks first. Nothing interesting happens on the weekend anymore either with so much uncertainty in the global markets. The market also continues to be choppy and unpredictable, not great for short term trading.

Up is up though, and it still looks like bulls want to bust out of this BB squeeze, or at least keep grinding up against the upper band:



Let's see what stock market futures do when they open in a few minutes. It could be telling.

Lower time frames still open to the possibility of a Bart top. $7,120 is the low of last week's 4-hour breakout candle and the daily BB basis. Holding below there would be a first warning that bears are coming. Holding above on any drop and floating back up to the highs would suggest more bullish chop.

My current sense of the news cycle: optimism still reigns as economies partially reopen and investors bet on further reopening. Stocks and BTC will probably keep chopping upwards in the shorter term. Earnings season not weighing too heavily yet, with some big names like Apple releasing financials end of week. In May or June, I think optimism will wane as crushing economic numbers continue to emerge in spite of reopening. Fear around a second wave of infections could intensify this turn in sentiment. For BTC, the halving as a "sell the news" catalyst fits well with this stock market outlook.

ALT/BTC charts have been uptrending all month. I've seen more than a few altcoin traders talking about "alt season." I'm really not sure since the March crash broke lots of bullish structures and might need time to rebuild. Something to keep an eye on.

Bulls are above the daily bands and the April 7th pivot. Ideally we'll see a candle close above the upper band ~ $7,500 today, then we'll see an advance beyond today's high as confirmation of a new daily uptrend.

The 0.618 of the downtrend and the 200-day MA are both right around $8K. First target is a wick above there. Given all the consolidation near $7K, final targets are in the upper $8,000s. Let's hope the stock market cooperates.

The low of today's 4-hour breakout candle ($7,120) marks an obvious failure. Super wide stop level from here, although it still provides 3:1 reward vs. risk on a run to $8,700+. We can roll up stops as the market forms local support.

Price action is still choppy, no clear trend at the daily time frame. The Bollinger Bands are getting tight so it's time to pay attention:



Above the $7,227 daily pivot things begin to look interesting again. A break above the $7,466 pivot will clearly trigger a bullish range expansion.

Below $6,456 triggers a bearish range expansion. The lower BB at $6,572 is a warning level. Between $6,572 and $7,227 it's a chop market and I have no strong bias.

The stock market is looking bit droopy though.....

This looks ugly.

Crude oil totally collapsing:



Stock futures teetering on the edge, bearish divergence, lower highs and lower lows:



BTC following stocks as usual. A nasty 4-hour bearish engulfing and H&S triggered:



This is looking very bearish unless the market breaks and holds above $7,227 (Coinbase). Looks like we might finally be headed back to the $5,000s.

All eyes on the weekly futures open in 35 minutes.

BTCUSD tried to float upwards over the weekend, but as I've said before, BTC price moves don't follow through when the markets are closed. If stocks remain bullish, then this sideways consolidation could be a running flat wave (ii) preceding a significant upside breakout today or tomorrow:



My sense of the news cycle and overall sentiment is we probably haven't topped out yet. Sometime in the next couple weeks, optimism about epidemic containment will probably start giving way to concerns about a second wave of infections, the horrible earnings numbers that keep coming out for Q1, and the seemingly growing need for more stimulus or other relief.

There's that head fake. Like I always say, the market loves to fake out one direction before breaking out in the other. That's a strong 4-hour hammer candle on good volume. Nice spike in Bitfinex shorts as well. We've trapped some bears.



Key upside levels to break: $7K and $7,200.

Time to pay attention. Watch out for a head fake, but be ready to react! I want to see a clear break below the April 13th low before committing to the bear case.



Crude oil is on the edge of a cliff, threatening to break below its March lows. The stock market is looking a bit wobbly in response. In fact, the intraday downtrend in stock futures looks impulsive. All the more reason to pay very close attention to what happens right now in all 3 markets.

These factors have me feeling bullish:

• Sellers tried to push below the mode and were quickly rejected. That's a bullish reaction.
• Holding the upper half of the daily Bollinger Bands suggests buyers are still in control.
• Maybe most importantly: the stock market continues to float upwards. I'm seeing a good deal of bears throw in the towel on their shitty puts and bottom shorts but sentiment still feels 50-50. The way price is floating, it seems like bears still need to be squeezed some more.

We have a beautifully defined range now. Breaking above $7,200 triggers a daily range expansion signal. The $7,466 high (right where the daily upper band is) should also be a reliable breakout level by now, with upside targets in the $8,000s. A break below $6,555 and I would flip to bearish, with the first target being the $6K area.

BTC Bulls bought up $6,750 and were poised to break upwards. The stock market said no! The weekly opened as a bearish judas swing:



BTC immediately reacted, falling almost 5% over 2-3 hours. This is a brutal Eiffel tower:



The SPX now looks like it completed a zig zag correction to the upside, suggesting the relief rally is over. I am however not overly confident in that assessment until it's trading back in the 2,500s.

BTCUSD might be overreacting. Evidence is mounting though that the uptrend is over, which would make sense since bulls have become rather piggish lately. I'm still expecting a run down to the low $5,000s at some point, if not lower.

Here is a thought experiment to test our biases.

This is an inverse BTC chart. It's flipped upside down. Would you long this chart? Would you short it?

These are some brutal headlines:

• Fed Chair Powell says U.S. economy deteriorating with alarming speed
• Another 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week
• New York coronavirus daily death toll reaches third-straight record at 799

And yet, stocks are up! This is why I don't really trade fundamentals. Price action is everything. Even if the perma bears are right, the market likes to squeeze them out of their shorts before it actually goes down. There is some resistance here, the 50% Fib retracement and some horizontal S/R, but no momentum divergence yet, and the PA is still bullish. It seems crazy but I wonder if we could make it all the way to the OTE short zone (0.618-0.786) before reversing:



BTC as well, still looking fairly bullish. Bears tried to break below $7,100 twice and bust through that lower trend line but they seem to have failed. Looks like we're coiling to break above that 50-day MA:



If we do break down from here, watch for a reaction off the 13-day mode, as laid out here:

The ground to battle overhead is likely alot harder to get through then what we have done previously.  The reason bounces occur with good probability is because a sharp gradient can relate to less volume per pricing, when we are getting back to the area where we had gone sideways previously or halted downwards slightly in a rally attempt then it also becomes a possible stop point in positive movement too.   Still it might be a fair guess that we can head back to the 200 day average, does that happen slow or quick this month.
  If we are less positive then an attempt at 200DMA then if I can take prior range as possible in repetition now then 7482 to 6477 in December seems fair to reconfirm now and would be still positive longer term.  Gradient of 50 day or 200 evening out might relate to possibility of passing by it.


Yea I find weekends a time to lay off the gas come back later Sunday to reassess but also its possible that weekends are less harsh or sticky then the in week action, some people might be let off the hook of a bad position if they get a small drift up in the 'days off'.  Its slightly incredible BTC graphs never stop, every other asset pricing does.

We saw marginal higher highs but bears are trying to hold onto this rising wedge pattern and the 50-day MA:



This situation is unpredictable. I can't apply a reliable EW count. Here's the bottom line: BTC likes to break upward from bearish wedges, but upside stop buys are no longer reliable. This rally is very obviously not impulsive, so this is not the time to expect a miraculous rally that breaks the February highs and begins a new monthly uptrend.

Bitmex predicted funding rate just flipped positive and futures spreads are now positive too. Bitfinex longs are rising while shorts are dropping. Bulls are definitely getting greedier and they are going to be punished eventually. We may spike to the low $8,000s or even the $9K area (the latter is unlikely IMO) but.......be ready for the downside. It's coming.

That was probably it with that H&S  The doctors only accept patients in an emergency. When the corona crisis is over I will go to the ophthalmologist 

To clarify, I wasn't calling for $9K-$10K, I was being lazy and merely bringing out my tape measure based on the mid-term bullish price action and it's potential.
Is that target likely? I don't think so, as unlike most triangle targets there is a lot of resistance in the way. Most people are looking to de-leverage positions, not buy in imo.
First off: selling the re-test of the 50 & 200 Day MA death cross at the 50 Day MA ($7,484), then selling the 200 & 100 Day flat MA resistance confluence ($8,110-$8,130).
Then we can see if the triangle resistance level flips to support or not before considering bullish or bearish re-positioning. As if the 100 Week MA doesn't hold ($7,082) this week and price gets rejected hard, the 200 Week MA would be likely for another re-test of support (as referenced in the Weekly analysis above; that of being relatively neutral and in a wide range).
The sunglasses were for dollar cost selling opportunities, if it wasn't obvious. Ideally before tomorrows Daily TD 9 sell signal  

The pivot held nicely over the weekend and we retained bullish bias. Stock market futures gapped up Sunday and hit the upside limit Monday. BTC moving in lockstep with stocks, both now hovering at their last local highs:





Anyone ignoring this correlation needs to have their head examined. When stock markets are closed, BTC moves have zero follow-through. When the markets are open, BTC follows stocks. Stocks are currently breaking above their late March double tops, so we could see significant upside in the coming week as trapped sellers and shorters get squeezed. The same goes for BTC.

I still stand by what I said in this post: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54149908

I'm seeing more and more calls from bulls expecting the $9,000s or $10K. I personally don't think the 200-day MA and March pivots in the low $8,000s will be so easy to surpass. It feels like bulls are beginning to get greedy. Shorts are being squeezed now, but it feels like we're trapping bulls for later.

And there goes another one right in my thread:

Looking good  Here's a target for that ascending triangle:

Currently eyeing up a short-term bearish move, but feeling mid-term still bullish, long-term neutral (until further confirmation and confluence on Weekly time-frame).

On the 1hr and 4hr charts there is a clear desending triangle forming targeting $6,250-$6,300, that would also be the support trend of the mid-term ascending triangle. This bearish short-term triangle is part of a "fake breakout" of the mid-term bullish ascending triangle I believe.  Price is struggling to find support from the 200 MA on the 4hr that's trending downwards (has a bearish posture). Clear bearish divergence on the RSI getting rejected by the bullish level of 60. CMF struggling to remain in the positive, implying selling pressure is still strong at current levels.



Zooming out looks better however. We appear to be in an ascending triangle from the recent swing lows, also arguably a bear channel (I'm considering both possibilities here), but a channel that has an upper target of the 200 Day MA around $8,150. This RSI is completely flat and neutral at 50, the CMF has bullish divergence and remains positive. Lack of confluence, but overall the Daily is leaning bullish I believe, based on indicators and the ascending triangle formation (higher lows with horizontal resistance), until proven otherwise.

Furthermore, we are currently above the 0.618 fib retracement ($6,390) from the black swan event which is a bullish sign (most dead cat bounces top out at this level), even if the 0.786 ($7,079) acts as strong resistance (that price could fail to break through for sometime).



The Weekly chart (as per usual) is the one I'm keeping an eye on. The RSI is flirting with the neutral level >40 at 43.2, but would need to close above this level on Sunday to invalidate bearish conditions, which could prove difficult based on short-term time-frame. The CMF is negative, currently lower than the capitulation drop. TD remains on a Red 6, though next week has the possibility to have a price flip to a Green 1. The 100 Week MA that previously loosely supported the price last year looks like it's starting to act as resistance as price approaches it and wicks above. It therefore seems quite likely that a re-test of the 200 Week MA would occur, confirming neutral price action, but arguably finding support from this crucial long-term support MA would be very bullish long-term in my opinion.



My mid-long term outlook would therefore be further consolidation within the trading range of 100 & 200 Week MAs until at least the halving. While it's possible price could break-out after the havling, given the current global financial situation and the need for many to raise fiat reserves, I believe the resistance level will remain as strong support for a few more months (until summer time), while at the same time the 200 Week MA (currently around $5,350) will additionally act as strong support (stronger than the resistance), that will ultimately form the new support base, confirming $3,800 as the swing low, providing the confidence for further upside for Q3 and Q4.

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Not exactly the look I was hoping for. We didn't break above $7K with authority:



However, unlike the similar long-shadowed candle on March 15th, the market didn't sell off following the full retrace. I would say we can remain cautiously bullish as long as the market holds above that $6,650 pivot. Below there it begins to look like a failure, and breaking back down into that triangle range would look really bearish.

There is a cluster of daily pivots between $7,600 and $8,200 with the 50-day and 200-day MAs inside the range. That seems like a reasonable stopping point for any continued rally.

I'm noticing a pronounced change in sentiment from bearish to bullish among traders I follow. I am seeing several calls for the $9,000s now. Perpetual swap interest is still negative (short term traders are still net short) but futures spreads are turning positive. The market is not "greedy" yet but we are starting to get there. Be careful getting too bullish this late into the rally. After an 89% run during a larger downtrend, profit taking should be on the mind.

I've had an eye on it:


If it's not officially invalidated yet, I would consider it unlikely. It's looking rather lopsided now. The red squiggle is how it should have played out, if it were going to:



If your head and shoulders look like that, you'd better see a doctor.