You heard it hear 1st - page 7. | Bitcointalksearch.org

dropt

legendary

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Quote from: JimboToronto on September 03, 2014, 10:03:31 PM

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

A good portion of the people here didn't even know about Bitcoin prior to Nov 13.

JimboToronto

legendary

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You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: Melbustus on September 03, 2014, 01:31:48 AM

Sheesh, this is all so very reminiscent of Q3-Q4 2011...

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

lumierre

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Behind the scenes we are making all time highs.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=

Wary

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Who's there?

Quote from: figmentofmyass on September 02, 2014, 10:28:30 PM

Quote from: thezerg on September 02, 2014, 10:19:37 PM

U dont get btc. It has nev3r been about retail. That is just icing. Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance. In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency. And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

fair enough. what makes BTC the obvious alternative? in theory, i could see BTC being used for international settlement of accounts. but in practice, i see no reason why it is the obvious answer.

If Germany stored their reserves in bitcoins, rather than in gold, USA wouldn't be able to steal them.

Newbie1022

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Quote from: Tzupy on September 03, 2014, 07:26:29 PM

So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters
that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low.
My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011,
simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though. Cheesy

This is the more likely scenario. I think some people are wondering whether the VCs, big mining operations, and other infrastructure players might get spooked at that despondency stage, though. Will panic beget more panic. The velocity of the any potential dip will be very telling.

Tzupy

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So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters
that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low.
My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011,
simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though. Cheesy

Newbie1022

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Quote from: Brewins on September 03, 2014, 06:57:37 PM

Quote from: falllling on September 03, 2014, 01:18:42 AM

Quote from: spiderbrain on September 03, 2014, 01:02:48 AM

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

I guess no one mine for less than $100/Bitcoin today only considering energy.

This is why much less than the current price is not a reasonable scenario without being together with a collapse in the network.

This. Which is why people are shorting at this price. Even if you see a cataclysm as a narrow possibility, it is a possibility... and one with a substantial pay off. Except for those who are just super Bitcoin fans, and that is totally legit, why wouldn't you short and just have a narrow stop loss in case of a bounce back. You'll probably lose a little, but the pay off v. risk v. probability makes for a decent bet so long as you properly use stop losses while we are in the zone of danger. F--- it, I am going for the gusto!

Or... to put it another way... we are a couple dumps and cascades away from paying off my student loans. For a couple percentage points risk to my asset base... I'll play that game.

Brewins

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Quote from: falllling on September 03, 2014, 01:18:42 AM

Quote from: spiderbrain on September 03, 2014, 01:02:48 AM

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

I guess no one mine for less than $100/Bitcoin today only considering energy.

This is why much less than the current price is not a reasonable scenario without being together with a collapse in the network.

Chalkbot

legendary

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Well, certainly none of us heard it here first, and everything you pointed to in OP has been true all along, so evidently the price of bitcoin doesn't care about any of those things.

Good luck with your strategies.

giveBTCpls

sr. member

Activity: 322

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Listen, it's simple. We'll need a couple more years of being bitchslapped by Ben Bernakle and friends, and once USD and EUR are suffocating in devaluation, then maybe, maybe people wakes the fuck up and appreciates what BTC constitutes.

exocytosis

sr. member

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Quote from: montreal on September 02, 2014, 11:08:17 PM

like Barry Silbert said, bitcoin will have a binary outcome....

A lot of people have made this claim, without any reasoning. Zero arguments for why it must be so.

Bitcoin might just as well stay at the level it's at right now. It doesn't have to follow the wishes and delusions of cultists and scammers like Silbert.

Melbustus

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Sheesh, this is all so very reminiscent of Q3-Q4 2011...

falllling

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Quote from: spiderbrain on September 03, 2014, 01:02:48 AM

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

FattyMcButterpants

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Activity: 448

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Quote from: spiderbrain on September 03, 2014, 01:02:48 AM

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

you say you'd be thrilled -- and i've seen others say that as well. do you really think so? it's easy to say now, won't feel the same if/when we get there. i got in mostly the $60s and $70s.... seeing $50 would scare me a bit.

spiderbrain

legendary

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We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

Newbie1022

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Quote from: tabnloz on September 03, 2014, 12:32:41 AM

Quote from: beetcoin on September 02, 2014, 11:13:30 PM

Quote from: thezerg on September 02, 2014, 10:19:37 PM

U dont get btc. It has nev3r been about retail. That is just icing. Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance. In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency. And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is.

In this sense bitcoin is like the OWS movement; no one specific and stated use or goal. That for me is the best thing about it. You can love it for the libertarian aspect, the ability to stay relatively private, to be able to participate on the deep web. Or you can save on overseas transfers, save on CC fees, make a statement about government money printing, send value instantaneously, be fascinated by coding or algorithms or alt coins or blockchain technology.

For each angle there is a use case. Doesn't mean all or any will work or be the leader, in fact it is debatable whether spreading the focus is a help or a hindrance. On one hand a narrowed focus is a target but can be implemented quicker while multiple fronts can see one emerge from stealth development.

But no, i don't think there is any way it will go to $50 just on the strength of poor sentiment or because the St thinks it is overbought.

To be fair, OP did not actually provide a timeline on when it would go down. Instead, he basically said it is going to go down hard before it would ever, if it did ever, go up again (to say the $1000+ range). Taken as that and nothing more, it is reasonable. That doesn't mean that it will happen... it means it is reasonable.

tabnloz

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Quote from: beetcoin on September 02, 2014, 11:13:30 PM

Quote from: thezerg on September 02, 2014, 10:19:37 PM

U dont get btc. It has nev3r been about retail. That is just icing. Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance. In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency. And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is.

In this sense bitcoin is like the OWS movement; no one specific and stated use or goal. That for me is the best thing about it. You can love it for the libertarian aspect, the ability to stay relatively private, to be able to participate on the deep web. Or you can save on overseas transfers, save on CC fees, make a statement about government money printing, send value instantaneously, be fascinated by coding or algorithms or alt coins or blockchain technology.

For each angle there is a use case. Doesn't mean all or any will work or be the leader, in fact it is debatable whether spreading the focus is a help or a hindrance. On one hand a narrowed focus is a target but can be implemented quicker while multiple fronts can see one emerge from stealth development.

But no, i don't think there is any way it will go to $50 just on the strength of poor sentiment or because the St thinks it is overbought.

falllling

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agreed, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down to the final capitulation!

Newbie1022

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Quote from: marky89 on September 03, 2014, 12:21:29 AM

Quote from: Newbie1022 on September 03, 2014, 12:18:39 AM

Quote from: windjc on September 03, 2014, 12:12:06 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on September 02, 2014, 09:44:47 PM

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll. But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops. By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days. But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable. The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all. You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no". You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?" You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid".

Institutions are already in on it. Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only. Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility. The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar. Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

while i think there's a good chance there is more down from here, i think it's very risky to short here. i had a short from low 510s and closed it too early, but i can't risk opening again down here. too many people shorting. gonna get squeezed.

Yea, I have a stop loss around 488 (I'll reassess then if we go up before we go back down)... not very high at all... I don't care to risk getting totally raped on a bounce back, but the general sentiment is down and if we drop hard enough margin calls will take care of the rest... so on the reward side it is pretty reasonable.

marky89

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Quote from: Newbie1022 on September 03, 2014, 12:18:39 AM

Quote from: windjc on September 03, 2014, 12:12:06 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on September 02, 2014, 09:44:47 PM

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll. But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops. By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days. But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable. The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all. You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no". You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?" You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid".

Institutions are already in on it. Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only. Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility. The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar. Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

while i think there's a good chance there is more down from here, i think it's very risky to short here. i had a short from low 510s and closed it too early, but i can't risk opening again down here. too many people shorting. gonna get squeezed.

Topic: You heard it hear 1st - page 7. (Read 14592 times)