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Topic: z - page 5. (Read 58382 times)

legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
April 08, 2013, 01:03:00 PM
Excellent analysis, I'm wondering if this tool (any some detective work on the part of the folks here) could confirm or refute a theory I have about current rapid rise in BTC valuation.  I think we may be seeing an effect from ASICs ware the miners low electrical consumption means they do not have to immediately liquidate their daily earnings to fund their operation.  Thus the ASICs miners have offered a smaller share of newly minted coins for sale thus increasing the scarcity and raising price.

We can be fairly sure that Mt.Gox is ware virtually all minted coins get liquidated by miners and Mt.Gox addresses are know so it should be possible to see what percentage get sold basically immediately and what percentage get put in storage.  Then see if that ratio changed around February.

Extremely unlikely. Aside from that there aren't that many ASICs out there yet (GPU mining is once again extremely profitable, too), 25BTC * 6/hour * 24 hours = 3,600BTC are being created every day. Even if every single miner immediately sold everything they mined, that would still mean that sale of mined coins accounts for 3,600/72,465 = 5% of daily MtGox volume. If you take into account all currencies traded on all exchanges, the percent is closer to 3,600/190,000 = 1.8%. So, miners don't affect the price of bitcoin almost at all. Never have, really.
sr. member
Activity: 375
Merit: 250
April 08, 2013, 11:30:58 AM
so does it look like the richest are spending anything? or is it just moving then around?
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
April 07, 2013, 08:18:37 PM
I saw a two million dollar transaction done without having to ask for anyone's permission. Cool.

Which could be someone sending coins to himself Smiley

That's what's magic with bitcoin.

Give me about a year, I do that every weekend and we can all watch it together LMAO I even buy the popcorn LOL
sr. member
Activity: 826
Merit: 250
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
April 08, 2013, 08:45:34 AM
Excellent analysis, I'm wondering if this tool (any some detective work on the part of the folks here) could confirm or refute a theory I have about current rapid rise in BTC valuation.  I think we may be seeing an effect from ASICs ware the miners low electrical consumption means they do not have to immediately liquidate their daily earnings to fund their operation.  Thus the ASICs miners have offered a smaller share of newly minted coins for sale thus increasing the scarcity and raising price.

We can be fairly sure that Mt.Gox is ware virtually all minted coins get liquidated by miners and Mt.Gox addresses are know so it should be possible to see what percentage get sold basically immediately and what percentage get put in storage.  Then see if that ratio changed around February.

Another question regarding the Uber-wallet, can you characterize most of the in-flowing funds as raw mining (which sounds unlikely given the volumes you've described), or is it from small wallets that would suggest a merchant such as Silk Roads.  Likewise are the outflows to Mt.Gox which would again be suggestive of a merchant.  If we can conclusively identify this a Silk Roads then we could get a handle on the actual rate of sales and an idea of the actually real goods volume traded with BTC and how it's changing over time.
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
April 07, 2013, 07:39:20 PM
*I realize this is unlikely but...

It'd be interesting to see categories associated to these addresses, something like...
  • Personal
  • Miner
  • Gambling site
  • Exchange
  • Etc.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
April 07, 2013, 07:32:50 PM
I saw a two million dollar transaction done without having to ask for anyone's permission. Cool.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 100
April 07, 2013, 07:06:19 PM
At current prices that's $466,109,456.99 USD (List on front page)

Wow.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
April 07, 2013, 06:21:08 PM
donator
Activity: 668
Merit: 500
April 02, 2013, 06:52:55 PM
I'm going to start posting updates as new posts.

Here's the list on 2013/04/02:


Now that's interesting, the minimum has started to fall.  I kinda thought it would have to start doing so.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 26, 2013, 01:33:58 AM
Very intersting data znort. I put them into a spreadsheet and came up with this chart.



Pie Chart



Do the same in a strictly logarithmic fashion, ie.

<1
1-2
2-4
4-8
8-16
...
1000-2000
2000-4000
etc

Much appreciated Smiley
full member
Activity: 150
Merit: 100
March 26, 2013, 12:20:00 AM
Very intersting data znort. I put them into a spreadsheet and came up with this chart.



Pie Chart

newbie
Activity: 47
Merit: 0
March 25, 2013, 09:28:01 PM
Must be a good feeling Smiley
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
March 24, 2013, 12:16:18 AM
I've been thinking of transferring my savings account (~$20,000) into BTC but I just don't know if that is the right move or not.
How to determine how much BTC to buy:
  • Pick a $ amount
  • Imagine BTC is worthless due to a software bug. All that money is lost. Are you OK?
    • Yes: invest this amount
    • No: pick a smaller number and go to step 1

Good strategy  Wink
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
March 23, 2013, 09:47:28 PM
I've been thinking of transferring my savings account (~$20,000) into BTC but I just don't know if that is the right move or not.
How to determine how much BTC to buy:
  • Pick a number
  • BTC is worthless due to a software bug. All that money is lost. Are you OK?
    • Yes: invest this amount
    • No: pick a smaller number and go to step 1
legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
March 23, 2013, 09:09:36 PM
It's a gamble. But the odds are in your favor. Study it well. Some people say "don't". Some people say "go". If it becomes worthless, at least you can play online poker or dice games.
full member
Activity: 163
Merit: 100
March 23, 2013, 08:49:42 PM
I've been thinking of transferring my savings account (~$20,000) into BTC but I just don't know if that is the right move or not.

It's still a relatively new currency. Don't put more in than you're willing to lose.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
welcome to riches
March 23, 2013, 07:04:25 PM
I've been thinking of transferring my savings account (~$20,000) into BTC but I just don't know if that is the right move or not.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
March 22, 2013, 10:39:40 AM
Wow, 2 million unspent coins. That's crazy.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
March 21, 2013, 04:54:02 AM
Thanks, nice work. Tipped.
legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
March 21, 2013, 04:39:46 AM
Thank you. That is interesting. Could you do the same in hundreds for below one thousand coins?

Basically, you break down the

   1K 1478
   0K 10975701

into

1k
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Although I think I can safely say that I can just split up my bitcoin stash into random chunks of 100 to 900 coins each and I'd be part of the 10 million addresses.

edit: I was about to tip you, but all I have is 0.000375 BTC and it costs more to send. (Lost all my 0.1 coins due to Satoshidice.)
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