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Topic: z - page 8. (Read 58427 times)

legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
January 19, 2013, 11:16:19 AM
Wow the first address all ones, very strange.

The guy is showing off, knowing people will look at it, wouldn't be surprised if he had more in other addresses.
Can't blame him  Smiley
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
January 19, 2013, 11:07:21 AM
Wow the first address all ones, very strange.
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
January 19, 2013, 06:28:49 AM

It's all about estimation and odds/probability.


Estimations and statistics are useless if your underlying model is flawed...
Truth is you can't tell which coins are lost or used as savings account, you can't even estimate it correctly.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 19, 2013, 05:26:26 AM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
by <2 years I meant not used since 01/2011 so next year it will be 3 years and so on...

But so many people just leave bitcoins sitting in there addresses for awhile, so this stupid, it is like buying a stock and just holding, if you hold for 40yrs then sell, it is the same thing doesn't mean you lost it.
Please; we know that ! It's all about odd estimation.

But you can't estimation at all... that is like saying let me estimate all the cars that are drivable, and if they are parked in the same place for more than year they are not drivable. It doesn't make sense.

First of all, I never said that ALL cars parked <1y are not drivable
Secondly, not drivable car are not on the road, for sure, they are parked somewhere.
It's all about estimation and odds/probability.

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
Bitcoin today is what the internet was in 1998.
January 19, 2013, 05:20:40 AM
Well, instead of trolling, can anyone come up with a better estimation method than what StarenseN proposed?
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
January 18, 2013, 08:50:13 PM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
by <2 years I meant not used since 01/2011 so next year it will be 3 years and so on...

But so many people just leave bitcoins sitting in there addresses for awhile, so this stupid, it is like buying a stock and just holding, if you hold for 40yrs then sell, it is the same thing doesn't mean you lost it.
Please; we know that ! It's all about odd estimation.

But you can't estimation at all... that is like saying let me estimate all the cars that are drivable, and if they are parked in the same place for more than year they are not drivable. It doesn't make sense.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 18, 2013, 08:37:10 PM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
by <2 years I meant not used since 01/2011 so next year it will be 3 years and so on...

But so many people just leave bitcoins sitting in there addresses for awhile, so this stupid, it is like buying a stock and just holding, if you hold for 40yrs then sell, it is the same thing doesn't mean you lost it.
Please; we know that ! It's all about odd estimation.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
January 18, 2013, 08:29:40 PM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
by <2 years I meant not used since 01/2011 so next year it will be 3 years and so on...

But so many people just leave bitcoins sitting in there addresses for awhile, so this stupid, it is like buying a stock and just holding, if you hold for 40yrs then sell, it is the same thing doesn't mean you lost it.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 18, 2013, 08:16:49 PM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
by <2 years I meant not used since 01/2011 so next year it will be 3 years and so on...
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 522
January 18, 2013, 07:20:07 PM
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?

Sounds like a very poor estimation, because by that count all money spent on 30 year Ts is "lost" 15 times over.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
--------------->¿?
January 18, 2013, 07:09:17 PM
What's the total of adresses in the network?
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 18, 2013, 06:11:49 PM
#99
You see, odds and bla bla... well I stop trying  Wink
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 18, 2013, 06:06:31 PM
#98
That wouldn't be accurate, [...] So that is a horrible way to show if coins are lost or unable to be used.

I never said it would be 100% accurate. I'm sure there are SOME addresses without any transactions for over 2 years that the owners still have access to.

It is 0% accurate it is just being lucky...

No, 0% accuracy is what we get with your suggestion of "don't bother trying to find out".

We know there are 10,676,550 mined bitcoins as of this writing, and if 500,000 of those haven't moved in 2 or even 3 years then at least we have SOME idea of how many dead coins there MAY be.

There is no accurate method, [...] I think looking for those "lost coins" is a waste of time.

I don't consider pursuits of curiosity to be a waste of time.
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
January 18, 2013, 05:53:19 PM
#97
That wouldn't be accurate, [...] So that is a horrible way to show if coins are lost or unable to be used.

I never said it would be 100% accurate. I'm sure there are SOME addresses without any transactions for over 2 years that the owners still have access to.

It is 0% accurate it is just being lucky...

I have a couple address that have no transactions but just one for over 6 months.

Then it's not inactive for over 2 years, is it?  Roll Eyes

Smart ass I see...

What more accurate method could you suggest then?

There is no accurate method, and that is the great thing about bitcoins, you mess up, you learn a lesson. That is how people are going to be become better bitcoiners. I think looking for those "lost coins" is a waste of time.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 18, 2013, 05:46:34 PM
#96
That wouldn't be accurate, [...] So that is a horrible way to show if coins are lost or unable to be used.

I never said it would be 100% accurate. I'm sure there are SOME addresses without any transactions for over 2 years that the owners still have access to.


I have a couple address that have no transactions but just one for over 6 months.

Then it's not inactive for over 2 years, is it?  Roll Eyes


What more accurate method could you suggest then?
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 18, 2013, 05:29:00 PM
#95
Of course, but most likely lost bitcoins are lost so without movement since let's say <2 years is a good estimation no?
legendary
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
January 18, 2013, 05:26:17 PM
#94
Knowing this, is it possible to know the amout of BTC that are "lost" if lost = unused for 2 years?

I bet there is a $/BTC point where most people started taking bitcoin seriously enough to backup their wallets before reformatting.

There should be an app that counts all the bitcoin addresses that haven't had any transactions since the exchange was at $x/BTC and gives you the total number of bitcoins likely lost.

That wouldn't account for forgotten passwords or coins sent to the wrong address etc since then, but it'd still be interesting to see the number.

That wouldn't be accurate, cause I know people that have just stuck some bitcoins in addresses that they never use. Me included, I have a couple address that have no transactions but just one for over 6 months. So that is a horrible way to show if coins are lost or unable to be used.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
January 18, 2013, 03:46:33 PM
#93
Knowing this, is it possible to know the amout of BTC that are "lost" if lost = unused for 2 years?

I bet there is a $/BTC point where most people started taking bitcoin seriously enough to backup their wallets before reformatting.

There should be an app that counts all the bitcoin addresses that haven't had any transactions since the exchange was at $x/BTC and gives you the total number of bitcoins likely lost.

That wouldn't account for forgotten passwords or coins sent to the wrong address etc since then, but it'd still be interesting to see the number.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
January 18, 2013, 03:31:46 PM
#92
Knowing this, is it possible to know the amout of BTC that are "lost" if lost = unused for 2 years?
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
December 26, 2012, 05:29:33 AM
#91
interesting.....
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