Topic: : - page 14. (Read 70881 times)

if you look at the last 6 month and its volativity where is the fair price of a currency/token/good that should be stable to really work for the people/masses? at 32 or 0.1?

I think the last time I checked this thread in july the trend was predicting btc prices upwards of 20$ by the end of august. You can't really predict the market unless you can see the big players imo.

O great Miner in the sky, hallowed be thy random seeds, why haft thou forsooken us?  We burnt our USD as an offering, yet the price still droppeth, and we do not understand your machinations.


(Might as well devolve into mysticism...)

The Trend that can be told
   is not the eternal Trend
The name that can be named
   is not the eternal Name.

The unnamable is the eternally real.
Naming is the origin
   of all particular things.

Free from desire, you realize the mystery.
Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations.

Yet mystery and manifestations
   arise from the same source.
This source is called darkness.

Darkness within darkness.
The gateway to all understanding.

     --Lao Tzu

He is either a subgenius or just really really stupid. His slack is off the charts though.

Is it just me, or are you talking like a psychic right now? The very phrases you use sometime confuse me.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

Thanks for the shout out. Kudos to your order=spread(1-probability) and a hunch from your chart that $4.501 was about 10% probable, I'll sleep very well. Thanks!

Meaning? You were mostly short on BTC today? Any long position would have been nailed an hour ago for
a pretty hefty loss.

I guess by using fancy terms, instead of speaking plainly, stating you are up today.. and every day is
quite a bold claim. What did you exactly do today to make it profitable?

I imagine you do not want to tell any good strategies to the public but your statement above is just grass
and no meat.

well the model is getting tested right now pretty darn well.
and thanks for the explanation.

Perhaps text on or under the graph such as
lo2%:$4.15
25%:$5.31
50%:$5.49
etc
Thanks again for publishing your results!

EDIT: Or if you have the full rainbow of % predictions anyway, maybe drop the resistance/support lines and draw two curves: y-axis:%, x-axis:$

Hi Chodpaba, perhaps if you made one of the H-boxes taller than the other or not cross at all (for example the orange box where it is, but the blue box typically in the top right corner (quad I)). It could only help or confuse even more.

Great work as always.   

Lower BTC prices are making it easier for you, our absolute % moves are getting huge relative to the past few months.  Volatility is really picking up and the 25/75% ranges are as wide as the West.  I may have to cough up that "penny bot" after all.

I am having a harder time interpreting that graph then before and when you say 25% and 75%.. i see the
values but it is just not making sense to me. Sure I could study it for another 10-15 minutes and probably
have an "aha!" moment.. but it seems to be hard to get at a glance.

for example, the "low price probability" is a thin orange line. Why do you draw a rectangle with it and
then have a line going through the middle of it breaking it into two rectangles?

It is things like that I am not getting.

+1 Spot on

However, this pales compared with the possibilities of becoming a "currency overlay". Should that happen I can easily see small banks that are getting shafted by SWIFT buying BTC to move cash around the world  

I think games will provide a stabilizing effect. I don't play in virtual worlds, but I would imagine Sir Lancelot doesn't care too much if Thor's Hammer of Lightning is fluctuating against the price of real world eggs, as long as it is stable against the price of a flock of Unicorns. Similarly for poker, I would think, a player only needs enough stability that a win is a win at the end of the day, and besides, a gambler might also appreciate the volatility; A big blind is twice a little blind irrespective of the price of eggs.

The rising year support touching Oct, Dec-Jan, April, and September converges at $4 with the falling three month support June, Aug, September. At $4, I think the market is asking whether $32 was a short bubble or whether the whole bitcoin adventure is a failure. Let the fight begin, today 11 August I mean 13 September!

There is a third possibility as well which I think almost no one has proposed here. That is a drop-stabilize-stable scenario. I find this more likely than the drop-stabilize-drop scenario the doomsday-bears propose. This scenario is possible if there is neither a drop nor a rise in the size of the economy and assuming that around $5 is the price the current economy can fundamentally sustain.

This would mean a longer period than usual of trading within a certain, relatively tight range. Eventually the stable scenario would end with either a stagnation or a growth period following. But a relatively long stable period could be what we're looking at next. But considering this scenario I still find the drop-stabilize-rise scenario most likely. There's simply too much going on in the Bitcoin world and the potential is incredible. I still feel the whole thing is just starting.

I recently heard that a pirate World of Warcraft network uses Bitcoins, only Bitcoins, for virtual item trade etc. Soon we might see the whole wow-gold market change to Bitcoin because the benefits are so big. Blizzard will have a hard time doing anything to stop it after that. We have just scratched the potential of the anonymity function and on top of that there are so many other good properties in Bitcoin which make the potential enormous.

This is an excellent point. I don't believe in an exact low either, not anymore. Finding it completely useless to even speculate on that number. What I've seen though is that once the price hits $4.xx the volumes and instability go through the roof and this behaviour begins at early $5. On the other side what we have now is a drastic slow down of action at around $6.

What this looks like to me is that right now the market has a very clear consensus of what is a "low price" and what is a "high price". I don't see a trend either, there is none at the moment.

I find it possible that we might be staying at this range, $4.xx - $6.xx, for a while now. When the breakout happens is unknown, but to me it's much more likely to be up from here than down. This will obviously depend on what kind of interest Bitcoin draws in the near future, but if nothing especially bad happens there's pressure for an uptrend of some sort.

The basis of this is that we have already seen google trends stabilize from the drop and the drop in the transaction count of the network is stabilizing slowly but surely as well. It's of course possible that we will see a drop-stabilize-drop behaviour for these indicators which to me will surely mean that a price range lower than the current one is entirely possible, even probable. But if the behaviour is the same as it has been in the past, a drop-stabilize-rise, then the price will rise as well.

It gives me confidence that we won't cross that one year support line, that we've reached the bottom from which I expect a doubling in short time. And if we do cross below, I'll have sufficient justification for panic.

Its the power of the Bitcoin drama show. You never know what the next news will be.