: - page 16. | Bitcointalksearch.org

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

Quote from: proudhon on September 05, 2011, 12:42:06 PM

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

This is why we are using some more flexible charting tools to predict BTCUSD. Rather than predicting each days range, we predict overall trends and price targets.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: proudhon on September 05, 2011, 12:42:06 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

Could be interesting. Everyone bought in at 6.58 and below last time, expecting that to be a highly temporary buying opportunity. I wonder how much cash is on the sidelines to provide support this time around. I wonder about the thoughts of those previously looking at 50% profits and "to the sky" sentiment now staring at 15% and shrinking.

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: ?? on ??

Apparently, one of my updates got eaten... Here it is again.
For Monday.

IQR: $7.53-10.45
Median range: $7.88-$10.00

The amount of resistance we would have to move through from the day's 'open' suggest to me it is unlikely that anything over $9.10 would be achieved today, but I would not expect the low to be below $7.80... If a decisive move beyond either of these limits happens then lookout...

Lookout.

TiagoTiago

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

Estimating the likelihoods of events for the next few days, IMO, is pretty close to being just another way of saying you're trying to predict the future.

I wasn't aware the computational requirements increased significantly for making predictions further into the future than just a few days though, i assumed the predictions would just get significantly less certain. If i knew answering my question would require significantly more work than what you were already doing i don't think i would've asked it.

TiagoTiago

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

Quote from: iBug on September 04, 2011, 08:11:50 PM

...

...But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

...

Isn't trying to predict the future pretty much the goal of chod's approach?

Christian Pezza

member

Activity: 154

Merit: 10

Quote from: iBug on September 04, 2011, 08:11:50 PM

Quote from: TiagoTiago on September 04, 2011, 07:51:40 PM

Quote from: gw4tt on September 04, 2011, 07:41:58 PM

Might never go back to $30.

And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.

There's nothing wrong with gw4tt's answer. Sorry if you're not satisfied by his answer, but his answer is 100% correct ...

You're asking for "the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now" ?

earliest guess date: today, in a few hours
latest guess date: unfortunately, never
average guess date: some time in the future
best guess date: /

Yes, I'm trolling around. But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

If you want the $/BTC ratio to reach 30, I can tell you how to do that. Just deposit $100,000 in a trading market with a very low volume and buy all offered Bitcoins up to 30 $/BTC. Et voilà ... job done.

where will drop back to at list 10 because a lot of people will not trust will stay there and everybody will like to to Cash out... untill BTC will be less speculation and more Currency there is no way will go back to high price in short term

iBug

newbie

Activity: 55

Merit: 0

Quote from: TiagoTiago on September 04, 2011, 07:51:40 PM

Quote from: gw4tt on September 04, 2011, 07:41:58 PM

Might never go back to $30.

And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.

There's nothing wrong with gw4tt's answer. Sorry if you're not satisfied by his answer, but his answer is 100% correct ...

You're asking for "the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now" ?

earliest guess date: today, in a few hours
latest guess date: unfortunately, never
average guess date: some time in the future
best guess date: /

Yes, I'm trolling around. But my point is: How should anyone in here be able to predict the future ? You just can't do that.

If you want the $/BTC ratio to reach 30, I can tell you how to do that. Just deposit $100,000 in a trading market with a very low volume and buy all offered Bitcoins up to 30 $/BTC. Et voilà ... job done.

TiagoTiago

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

Quote from: gw4tt on September 04, 2011, 07:41:58 PM

Might never go back to $30.

And you might get hit by a meteor while you're laying on the ground convulsing after getting hit by a lightning while you were celebrating winning the lottery.

gw4tt

full member

Activity: 126

Merit: 100

Might never go back to $30.

TiagoTiago

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

I know your model looses too much accuracy as distance from the present increases, i won't hold it against you if the data is way off; but i'm curious, what is the earliest, the latest, the average, and the best guess date when it says Bitcoin will reach 30 bucks again right now?

Christian Pezza

member

Activity: 154

Merit: 10

I just learn about this, It's awesome, thank you

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

It occurs to me that giving three different sets of numbers like that, and a chart to boot might seem a bit muddied. I have tried to digest my analysis down to the essentials, because the amount of stuff I look at is kind of ridiculous. Is it confusing? Useful?

It's a good sanity check for expectations. You might update less often... the range hasn't changed much in the last few days.

TraderTimm

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1121

Quote from: grod on September 03, 2011, 03:08:15 AM

I'll stick to shorting naked puts 5-6 days a month for my regular trading adrenalin fix, thanks.

Haha, I know you have to be kidding - but I actually saw an entire broker pool go broke doing that in the Swiss Franc futures. Not a pretty sight. One day they were there, the next day new guys were standing in the pit

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: fcmatt on September 03, 2011, 02:26:22 AM

Perhaps once you reach those levels things become a bit easier to make quick trades.

And perhaps mtgox front running and trading their own market at 0% effective commission means you'd never get profitable enough to reach those levels.

Bitcoin is the Wild West. The daring get either obscenely rewarded or brutally raped (with a high rape/reward ratio, IMO). I'm not wealthy enough to trade this bad boy for real. I'll stick to shorting naked puts 5-6 days a month for my regular trading adrenalin fix, thanks.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

To be fair, when it comes to trading costs, the more you trade the less you pay.
I am not sure what the lower limit is but if you trade more then 200 BTC on mtgox within
a month your rate drops down to .53%. So I wonder what it would be if you traded 1000
BTC within a month? .3%?

Perhaps once you reach those levels things become a bit easier to make quick trades.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

That still requires trust in the exchange, and in the intermediary handling funds for deposit and withdrawal from the exchange.

I'm not comfortable trusting more than pocket change to those amateur hour clowns at mtgox and dwolla.

The amount of money a penny bot would make on a few thousand $ after round trip commissions is less than what I'd make spending development & tweaking time working at McD's instead. To say nothing of more conventional trading.

grod

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fcmatt on September 01, 2011, 02:55:18 PM

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.

You could always put more money in play.

If only we were trading on a real, accountable, regulated and audited exchange, and had margin and derivatives on bitcoin (and more than a snowball's chance in hell of actually assigning a put). I'd be playing with real money, and wouldn't be the only one. Until then pocket change only. Seriously, I've paid more in comission in one day than the total I have at risk in BTC.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: fcmatt on September 01, 2011, 02:55:18 PM

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.

You could always put more money in play.

I edited my post above. Sorry to confuse you. I hit submit without thinking about my post a bit more.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

I think I could make more with the amount of money I have in play by driving around to Dunkin
Donuts and picking up change off the ground. And that includes what gas costs in my Prius.
To do what you suggest would almost be a full time job and the amount of money I would have
to put into play to make it worth it would probably turn me into a "player". You know.. those shady
manipulators tossing around 500-1000 BTC at a whim anywhere they see a profit. ;-)

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Quote from: ?? on ??

I don't see how any trader could complain about this, it is as easy as playing "Pong".

at .5% trading fee on both the buy/sell it is hard to make any money with these ping/pong going on.

plus when you sell 50BTC for example, the price really collapses quite a bit when doing so. thus
you are not really selling at 8.30... The average price might be 8.20 when done. And when you bought at
8.10.. that is really not worth it to me.

With the price at 8.27 as I type this, selling 50BTC will drive the price down to 8.12ish...

I decided to get out and stay out for now. The risk is not worth the reward at the moment with the
bearish feeling I have and getting caught being in all BTC.

I hope I made sense.

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