Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 2. (Read 26015 times)

Well said!

I do think that if whales drop it to bellow 4k it would cause panic and even mass sell off imho. That being said, I also don't believe BTC can ever die, to much people involved, it's to late =)

"Final and total" heh.. I hope you understand he didn't get this $1000 target figure from the Elliot Waves analysis.

He actually got that number by combining two sources - (a) the fact that a "typical" bubble of an ordinary asset loses about 90-95% of value (5% of 20K is 1K); and (b) he believes Bitcoin is an ordinary overvalued asset, which just got through its first serious bubble condition. If we take those two presumptions, we get the 1K target (though by some reason OP liked to talk about $500-800 target too, but that doesn't like to fit with any theory, and is probably just reflects his preferences).

However, there are many people here (including me) who do not share his point (b). That's the main reason of arguments here (your friends call it "hating" and somehow you feel a need to defend OP from the nasty "haters").

As I don't share his point (b), to me $1000 figure seems to be too low... if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again, it could be a point of no return and it could happen only in case of a extremely serious problem comparing to catastrophe (serious bug in the code, Satoshi moving his funds, quantum computing suddenly making all current cryptography useless, or similar). Based on previous bubbles, if nothing like that happens, this bear market has to end between 3K and 4K, spending the most time moving around $4K, with few short dumps to around 3K. By the way, 3.1K is where the current weekly MA200 resides, and breaking below that is highly undesirable for anyone who believes in Bitcoin's future and understands markets a little bit.

There is an interesting article published just before this last dump: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
This guy predicted the dump just before it actually happened. Look at parallels with 2014. If we apply them, we are now moving into the "despair" state of 2015, where we got two bottoms with about 50% of price of the state where the cross happened - so around 3K more or less.

Sorry I have no graphs to make my assumptions look more "scientific" and convincing to people who like graphs... You can draw them in you head, as I do .
No beautiful Fibonacci numbers too   I believe they are useful to short term traders mainly, who need exact numbers to day-trade... I prefer long-term - its far less stressful, and allows to stay cool and calm.

Funny song in there from 2013: Bitcoin is a Bubble
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

"bitcoins a fad and its on fire
higher than a fantasy
like a singularity

bulls living in world full of denial
i'm feeling a catastrophy
they're thinking it can fly away

oohhh ohhhh ohhh i keep on riding my bear
though i'm falling a tear

oohhh ohhhh ohhh it's gonna crash to the ground
and i'm not backing down

Bitcoin is a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble
its only a bubble, Bitcoin is a bubble"

This is not truth. And I stressed it several times. There are lots of threads on this forum even calling ATH on time and normally predicting the bear market to happen same as it happened in previous bitcoin cycles.   I do not even know how would any reasonable guy who was here from 2013 think otherwise. To believe Bitcoin will just stay at $20k? LOL


Oh there is also a youtube channel with good on time predictions you might check if you really hate to read this forum.  https://www.youtube.com/user/TheKoziTwo/videos    He predict rarely but always on time and correct.

Exactly what I have always said myself, "defending" OP several times from other users; "easy" today to make predictions and talk about catastrophes, crash market or recovery from 2020 onwards, but what I have always stressed is that OP author did it in January, first in the bitcointalk forum, and when everyone expected and called Bitcoin to new Ath.
Several times he was attacked that he changed his analysis during the various phases of the market, demanding from him a precision and an accuracy that can not be in any market, even more in this crypto.

The final and total analysis is the one that counts from the count Elliot of OP, and he has indicated several times around 1000 $ as the final target of Bitcoin in 2020.

Extraordinary still the importance and the note of the deadline of the future CBOE of yesterday, with the collapse of the entire market, expected in its "main" chart.

A little later than anticipated, but nonetheless - it dropped like it should. Now little itching of 6K, and back to the 'right' track.

Want to see all those, who are as always taking emotional approach to trading or charting xddd (although reddit is probably better for comedy gold).

Seems that I largely agree with your response Drays... and I would just supplement your points by asserting that a thread like this (35 pages long, by the way), can take some life of its own after being in existence for nearly 11 months, and a response to OP in February or March would likely be different from a response today, and furthermore, OP might appreciate the extent to which what s/he asserted then has played out or not, and whether there may have been some combination of luck in whatever assertion was then made that is subsequently more clear based on some hindsight.

By the way, we know in bitcoinlandia, there are all kinds of supposed experts who had been proclaiming the downfall of bitcoin since 2015 based on supposed technical analysis expertise, and surely at some point they will end up being correct, especially if they keep asserting some variation of the same thing over and over.

Well, as to me, I am not laughing or mocking (never did), just sometimes express my disagreement with few points, and some suspicions on the intentions. But as to the rest - yep, still following. It is always interesting to see what a smart and educated person has to say... even if I don't fully share his viewpoint and opinion

You guys are laughing and mocking OP, but oddly enough you're all still watching what he has to say.

Not exactly. As OP always tells: "Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated."
So 'many month'-long sideways movements (before a clear up or down movement) still fit into the scope of those predictions.

Also... Yes, with those graphs OP will be right in both cases - both if BTC goes down, and if BTC goes up - BUT as you can see, OP left this carte blanche to market only in short term.
For the longer term, as you can see, he still predicts BTC crash to 4K or even sub 1K - so in this sense his position didn't change at all, and he stubbornly protects this his view.

Overall, though, it was interesting to read this analysis, as always, whether we agree to it or not

Rather than using the word, "stubborn", perhaps "filled with hopium" might be a better description....?      

Not exactly - as you can see, OP left carte blanche to the market only for the short term. For the long term he still keeps his unfavorable view on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general - still insisting on the long term BTC crash to 4k or even sub-1k. Quite stubborn guy, I would say

I understand that Elliot, like any other study and analysis on the graphs, studies the past to predict the future, and therefore is not synonymous with perfection, but rather everything is interpretable and modifiable with the price update and the addition and birth of new variables, however ..... but in this way, after this your new analysis you left "carte blanche" to the market.

It's like pulling a dime and waiting for heads or tails - you have 50% chance in both situations.
In this way and not exposing you as you did before, you gave two opposite analyzes and with the same probability of success, so in both cases you will be right! .....

..... or maybe, as JayJuanGee says, Bitcoin has a third chance and can also station another 2 or 4 or 12 months in a narrow price range, for example between $ 6,000 and $ 7,000, and "fuck" all the our analyzes and forecasts .... who can say?

In any case I understand that you believe that, in one way or another, very soon there will be a strong and clear movement by Bitcoin and the general market.
That's what I think too!

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Inflection Point
https://redd.it/9u1y3z


 
The Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bear market of 2018 has reached a point of inflection, where alternative scenarios and projections can now be explored using Elliott Wave theory.

From the 17-DEC-2017 high to the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market endured a 70% price collapse from the all-time high of $19,891 to a low of $6,000 in just 51 days (BITFINEX). In Elliott Wave parlance, this first phase crash is a simple but sharp three wave a-b-c zigzag pattern.

From the 06-FEB-2018 low, the Bitcoin market then wandered sideways for 168 days until 24-JUL-2018, creating a floor of support at $6,000 whilst making successively lower highs. The psychological $6,000 price has been guarded since it marks support of the psychological USD$100 billion Bitcoin marketcap. In Elliott Wave parlance, this second phase of market development is a triangle pattern consisting of five a-b-c-d-e waves. The internal structure of the waves within the triangle are related to each other in terms of length as the following Fibonacci ratios:

    wave-c = wave-a * 0.618
    wave-d = wave-b * 0.786
    wave-e = wave-c * 0.786



The triangle phase of the Bitcoin market completed at the 24-JUL-2018 high. Since then, the third phase of market has been underway with an expectation of creating new lows for 2018 at sub $6,000 prices. Initial approx targets have been projected as follows (BITSTAMP):

    @5920: Fibonacci 0.618% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @5220: Fibonacci 0.786% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.  
    @4327: Fibonacci 0.100% of wave-d low projected from wave-e high.
    @4200: Fibonacci 78.6% decline of entire Bitcoin market.

Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.

Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes

However, the Bitcoin market has reached an inflection point. The third phase of the bear market appears to have stagnated in price and time. Since 09-SEP-2018, price has traded in a narrow 10% range at an average price of $6,400 for almost 60 days thus far. Volatility is now at a 22-month low and technicals such as moving averages are flat-lining across daily timeframes. This behaviour has been quite unexpected. Since completion of the consolidating triangle phase of the market, volume and volatility was expected to breakout. Speculators and traders have left the stabilised cryptocurrency marketplace in favour of the more volatile global equity bear markets.

An alternative scenario can now be considered: Since completion of the triangle at the 24-JUL-2018 high, the concluding phase of the bear market may have declined and truncated at the 11-OCT-2018 low. If so, a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market may be commencing within an overall secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. Such a bull market would be termed as a wave-X as part of a complex ongoing long-term bear market structure.



In some schools of Elliott Wave thought, the wave-X bull market may unfold in five 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive waves; or, as three a-b-c corrective waves considered in other schools of thought. Either way, the size of a wave-X is challenging to predict. Typically, it may retrace either a Fibonacci 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% of the entire 2018 bear market; that is approx $11,081 or $12,720 or $14,360 or $16,705 respectively (BITSTAMP). In some cases, a wave-X may extend to, and even exceed prior all-time highs, like typically seen in commodity and forex markets. The wave-X cyclical bull market could be a swift parabolic move elapsing within 12 months during the course of 2019, and thus the overall secular bear market may still resume to unfold to a low in late 2020.

---

In summary, the parameters of the inflection point can be currently defined as follows, using BITSTAMP prices…

Bear Market Inflection Points

—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.

Bull Market Inflection Points

—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.

---

Notes

—Bitcoin CBOE XBT futures expiries: 14-NOV-2018, 19-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin CME futures last trade dates: 30-NOV-2018, 28-DEC-2018
—Bitcoin ICE Bakkt daily futures tentative launch: 12-DEC-2018

—S&P500: global stockmarket indices appear to have topped, and a bear market is underway. Expectation is a rally into the end of year 2018 towards $2,800+ in the S&P500 index, followed by a decline to approx $2,400 by Easter 2019 to end the brief equity bear market.

—Gold: rally underway, expectation to conclude at approx $1,260, and then bear market resumes to sub $1,000 by 2020.

—US Dollar: expecting uptrend to be bounded by approx 98, and then bear market resumes.

---

Elliott Wave models are speculative and indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

BTC (Weekly)



BTC (Daily)



BTC (4-hr)

What does that mean?  Anything?

By the way, I expect the sun to rise tomorrow.   

I surely understand that sometimes any of us might write something that we don't really mean or that our words might get misinterpreted or even analyzed in a way that is much deeper than what we had originally intended.

Part of the advantage with engaging in a forum like this is that we can bat around our ideas, and even learn more about our own thoughts and how to express our thoughts in order to attempt to get the effect (or reading) that we want. 

Furthermore, as long as each of us is attempting to be genuine in our presentation (especially when it comes to our more serious proclamations and predictions) then we will likely figure out the extent to which we might need to hone our own thoughts or our way of presenting or thoughts or if we are largely in agreement with our dialogue opponent.



I understand that in common parlance people will tend to express ideas (especially about the future) in terms of absolutes when they may consider a matter to be likely or extremely likely, so they don't really mean "must" even though in common parlance people have a tendency to use those kinds  of words.  Sometimes, I will do that myself as a kind of clarity shortcut, even though I don't mean it to be literal.


Probably, I don't agree with you too much in terms of your own assessment or your reliance on various technical analysis principles, yet even though the possibility of sideways remains implied, it seems to me that the implication that you made in your earlier posts was to mostly give credence to either UP or DOWN - even while there are more variations regarding what can happen, and I think that I do sometimes get a bit perturbed by technical analysis that seem to give greater odds to a certain outcome than such outcome rightfully deserves - in an attempt to suggest that the future is more clear than it is.  I am not asserting that you intended to do such, but I am suggesting that some of your earlier word choices had left that impression... and in that regard, your word choices caused me to inquire about what you meant exactly.. hence our exchange of ideas here... and nice to meet you.. .       



Surely, I cannot disagree with this point.


Personally, I try NOT to place too much weight into price predictions in either direction, and my strategy continues to be to accumulate BTC on dips and to sell when the price goes up.  I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014, so my practice remains a kind of maintenance and continued accumulation that is incremental rather than extreme (since I have largely already accumulated a relatively comfortable BTC stake)   So for me, incrementalism rules the day in my practice, and I assume long term BTC price appreciation with a bit of uncertainty and even emotional detachment from short term BTC price movements. 

The extent to which I attempt to predict short term BTC price movements is mostly one leg at a time, so perhaps now, I am thinking that there are decent chances for up.. .. at least greater than 50%.. but if the price goes down, I already have orders to buy and if the price goes up I already have orders to sell.  Currently, I am selling a bit more than 1% of the value of my holdings for every 10% the BTC price goes up, and I use such generated fiat to buy back, if BTC prices go down.   

I have optimism that is greater than 50% that both in 4 weeks and in 4-5 months, the BTC price will be higher than it is today, but I really feel little to no need to attempt to predict any greater than that.. .but instead hope that the price goes up... and to continue to recognize a lot of great fundamentals in bitcoin that continue to be develop that continue to make bitcoin long term bullish with no other asset class that even seems to be in the ballpark of competing with bitcoin, even though there are likely powerful forces and manipulators out there who would like to keep BTC prices down for as long and as much as they can, and I remain uncertain about how much success they can muster up in keeping BTC prices down or to get BTC prices to go down in the short (1-4 months) or medium term (4-18 months).

I expect going out of the BTC present triangle

Written words often lose their true meaning that one person wants to transmit to another, and other times are meticulously analyzed.
When I said that "bitcoin must" it is obvious that I was referring to the statistics and the historicity of such movements and figures on the charts (in every sphere, stock, commodity, bond, etc.), but it is equally obvious that there is a third choice and / or possibility that it remains lateral for other weeks or even months, but ..... but precisely the statistics and the history of price analysis, of every tradable thing, teaches us that at the end of such a movement, of such a geometric figure , of such a retracement or recovery, etc., there will then be a certain reaction on prices, which is proportionally proportional to the good or the commodity that is being traded (an action will have a different reaction to a bond and compared to a commodity and compared to a cryptocurrency).

Since none of us has the crystal sphere, we can only hypothesize movements and oscillations, short and long term, while being more optimistic towards the long term.
What do you expect for the next 4 weeks and instead for the next 4-5 months, until February-March 2019?

No need to be carried away as we are in the speculation topic in which everyone are entitled to their opinion specially that this bearish market is still in effect but actually no one can really predict the future of Bitcoin as the price keeps on fluctuating.