2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 10.

sedactoo+04

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Hello World!

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 23, 2019, 11:49:05 PM

Quote from: BMG86 on June 22, 2019, 02:44:26 PM

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

Yes, this is possible. However, it will be labelled as currently in the X wave of an WXY correction —see Scenario B (Complex) here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50467456

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: BMG86 on June 22, 2019, 02:44:26 PM

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

Yes, this is possible. However, it will be labelled as currently in the X wave of an WXY correction —see Scenario B (Complex) here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50467456

BMG86

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 21, 2019, 05:10:53 PM

Quote from: sedactoo+05 on June 21, 2019, 08:09:32 AM

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 21, 2019, 05:10:53 PM

Quote from: sedactoo+05 on June 21, 2019, 08:09:32 AM

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.

"with no return"
You're a funny guy.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: sedactoo+05 on June 21, 2019, 08:09:32 AM

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.

exstasie

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Quote from: WinslowIII on June 21, 2019, 09:44:39 AM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 19, 2019, 05:19:28 AM

If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

I'm expecting something like this as well, but not because of Elliot wave charts, but because of what happened before, during and after the last litecoin halving. I expect a big crash in August, which is litecoin's halving. Will pick back up in November to start the next bull run, the market will also be long due for a shakeout. This will basically be the last chance for a healthy market shakeout before the next halving is right around the corner and only a fool would sell.

Timing is so difficult to predict but I'm operating off similar estimates.....a bearish August and September is in the cards.

I think the above chart has already been invalidated. The current Wave 5 is now extending so the alternative to ~$12K posted here is more likely.

The Litecoin halving hype is still in effect; LTCUSD looks like it's consolidating below the highs, waiting for Bitcoin to pullback, after which LTCBTC will rally again and another round of FOMO will follow. After this next leg up though, it becomes increasingly likely a major correction will occur as we approach the halving date. A strong enough dump in Litecoin after the magnitude of the recent rally will probably have tangible effects on supply and demand in BTCUSD and help finally trigger the long awaited correction in BTC. Bears thought the correction would come at $6K, then $10K. Maybe it'll finally happen at $12K or $13K.

sedactoo+05

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Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

WinslowIII

member

Activity: 308

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 19, 2019, 05:19:28 AM

Using price against the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) —a momentum oscillator used in traditional classical Technical Analysis to determine overbought and oversold market conditions; it can be observed...

1. Daily oversold price/RSI positive divergence occurred during DEC-2018, which marked a key market bottom.
2. Daily overbought price/RSI negative divergence occurred during MAY-2019, which may mark a key market top.

If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

Markets usually take the stairs up, and the escalator down. The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 17-JUN high (thus far) is 131 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 65 days, it may be over by the end of AUG.

Should this be correct, the approx expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@6300: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@5500: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@4480: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)

Code:

19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Indicative of price/structure, not time.

I'm expecting something like this as well, but not because of Elliot wave charts, but because of what happened before, during and after the last litecoin halving. I expect a big crash in August, which is litecoin's halving. Will pick back up in November to start the next bull run, the market will also be long due for a shakeout. This will basically be the last chance for a healthy market shakeout before the next halving is right around the corner and only a fool would sell.

kronos123

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 17, 2019, 07:33:31 PM

Thanks for the latest updates, personally I agree on this latest wave chart that you posted, and that is a 50% Fibonacci retracement test up to $ 11,500, and then go back to testing the long-term support in the area again $ 5000.

What I disagree with, however, is the new Bitcoin ATH which indicates in 2020-21 to about $ 35,000; I believe that the FOMO that will be born and will be unleashed in the next few years will bring Bitcoin and the whole market at VERY higher prices than the previous ones.
All the "old" banking / financial world is about to enter, and when it does, even with only a fraction of 1-2% of the immense available liquidity, the values and prices of today's crypts will explode like never before.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: oarmas on June 19, 2019, 07:25:58 AM

Thanks for your thoughts, one of the reasons for my thinking is the current primary three on the S and P (SPY) is looking like a 10-16 year wave and bitcoin has been aligning to the stock market cycles surprisingly closely (Wave 3 high in Dec 2017 with the stocks high two months later, lows almost perfect alignment Dec 18), which suggests this next bull market may be much longer than anyone anticipates.
The problem, as you noted in your post, is my timing and wave count for btc don't match the overall appearance of the wave. Even if I was correct, the projected bull market should start at least six months before the halving, so the btc count would not meet the FIB time projection.
The stock market gurus, as you are well aware, called the end of the Feb - Oct 18 wave major 1, not a primary. How would btc look, if that approach were taken?
Fundamentals (btc vs fiat) indicate this next bull cycle will be epic, as the banks will have a very hard time bringing M2 growth down to 2%, the projected growth of btc after next May.

At the moment, currently seeing the main indices of the US stockmarket (i.e. S&P500 and Dow Jones) in PRIMARY wave-5.

If PRIMARY wave-5 equals the length of PRIMARY wave-1 (from 2009-2011), then the Dow Jones may travel towards approx 38,000 —barring any wave subdivisions and extensions.

Dow Jones 1915-2019

Dow Jones 2008-2019

oarmas

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Thanks for your thoughts, one of the reasons for my thinking is the current primary three on the S and P (SPY) is looking like a 10-16 year wave and bitcoin has been aligning to the stock market cycles surprisingly closely (Wave 3 high in Dec 2017 with the stocks high two months later, lows almost perfect alignment Dec 18), which suggests this next bull market may be much longer than anyone anticipates.
The problem, as you noted in your post, is my timing and wave count for btc don't match the overall appearance of the wave. Even if I was correct, the projected bull market should start at least six months before the halving, so the btc count would not meet the FIB time projection.
The stock market gurus, as you are well aware, called the end of the Feb - Oct 18 wave major 1, not a primary. How would btc look, if that approach were taken?
Fundamentals (btc vs fiat) indicate this next bull cycle will be epic, as the banks will have a very hard time bringing M2 growth down to 2%, the projected growth of btc after next May.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Using price against the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) —a momentum oscillator used in traditional classical Technical Analysis to determine overbought and oversold market conditions; it can be observed...

1. Daily oversold price/RSI positive divergence occurred during DEC-2018, which marked a key market bottom.
2. Daily overbought price/RSI negative divergence occurred during MAY-2019, which may mark a key market top.

If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

Markets usually take the stairs up, and the escalator down. The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 17-JUN high (thus far) is 131 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 65 days, it may be over by the end of AUG.

Should this be correct, the approx expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@6300: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@5500: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@4480: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)

Code:

19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Indicative of price/structure, not time.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Activity: 571

Merit: 284

Quote from: oarmas on June 18, 2019, 10:29:52 PM

Hey xxxx123abcxxxx: love your updates. Have you considered the possibility that primary 3 may be primary 5 (or maybe primary 1) and we're in a longer correction. The FIB time allowance for this is that the down trend should cover the aggregated of time for the lesser degree waves 2 and 4 which is about 987 FIB days, suggesting an end to the cycle by Sep 2020. This would match the last major halving, now that the banking system has to adjust their fiat money printing to bitcoin expansion, this would imply a major slowdown in M2 expansion, or if the trend stays at 4% growth a doubling of the bitcoin price every six months until M2 slows down. Bitcoin slows to 2% growth on May 23 2020, it currently matches the M2 expansion of around 4%.

Personally only see three waves from 2010 to 2017 so far. Therefore, currently thinking either:

1. its an A-B-C (with complex bear market underway): https://i.imgur.com/zlRbhhX.png
2. or, its a 1-2-3 (with 4 complete, and 5 underway): https://i.imgur.com/TnylE6A.png

Either of your suggested possibilities will conclude with the first A-B-C scenario.

Only used Fibonacci with price, not time —so no experience there to comment. Nevertheless the following are time-based thoughts:

Code:

Wave 1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave 2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave 3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave 4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave 5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?

The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years.

Timewise, the first two bull markets (Waves 1 and 3) elapsed 1142 days on average; and, the first two bear markets (Waves 2 and 4) elapsed 395 days on average. Bull markets have lasted almost three times longer than bear markets. Thus, an intuitive linear projection would propose the current third and final bull market (Wave 5) to complete by the year 2022 or earlier.

However, since the current fifth and final Elliott Wave is by typical definition only required to revisit or just exceed the high of the third wave, it may suggest the current bull market may be comparatively contracted in price and time —if the waves do not subdivide and extend.

oarmas

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Hey xxxx123abcxxxx: love your updates. Have you considered the possibility that primary 3 may be primary 5 (or maybe primary 1) and we're in a longer correction. The FIB time allowance for this is that the down trend should cover the aggregated of time for the lesser degree waves 2 and 4 which is about 987 FIB days, suggesting an end to the cycle by Sep 2020. This would match the last major halving, now that the banking system has to adjust their fiat money printing to bitcoin expansion, this would imply a major slowdown in M2 expansion, or if the trend stays at 4% growth a doubling of the bitcoin price every six months until M2 slows down. Bitcoin slows to 2% growth on May 23 2020, it currently matches the M2 expansion of around 4%.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: guoyu78 on June 18, 2019, 10:47:07 AM

The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Yes, the revised Elliott Wave model may still be incorrect. Technical Analysis is not objective. This is a subjective discipline in attempt to quantify qualitative speculation.

If any system provided absolute 100% predictability, would there be free will...?

The marketplace is based on probabilities, perhaps even based on random walk hypothesis; the endeavor of Elliott Wave and other Technical Analysis is an attempt to forecast market trends.

Like the weather, the market is a natural phenomena. Climatologists will look for causality in global warming using climate change; likewise, economists will look for causality in price stability using monetary policy.

Both are natural cycles which we mostly react towards, and seldom influence. Truth is, no seismologist can predict the magnitude of an earthquake, no climatologist can predict the El Nino, and no economist can predict the market. All models are subjective and adapt to new incoming information, your role is to determine the most probabilistic outcome, perhaps even intuitively.

Quote from: fabiorem on June 18, 2019, 11:32:46 AM

Thats because Eliott wave analysis works better after the movement happened, not before. Like the OP said, the chart indicates price and structure, but not the time of it.

Personally, I dont believe anymore that we are going to see 5k at the end of this month. If it was to be like that the price would have fall back to 6k during the recent $1500 "correction". Also I believe we have more hodlers now than we had two months ago, and all this FUD about CSW, Satoshi, etc, are making the hodlers more resilient, just to make opposition to the bad actors.

You can notice the OP moved the 5k to September, to maintain the wave analysis, but after August the price will probably go to full recovery mode. It would made more sense if the low is put at 7k, giving a 5k range between it and 12k.

Once a top can be confirmed, more accurate pullback targets can be defined.
For example, if the market tops at say $12,000; then a typical 50% or 61.8% retrace would be around $7500 or $6500 respectively.

BMG86

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Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 18, 2019, 12:51:10 PM

Quote from: BMG86 on June 18, 2019, 09:33:09 AM

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.

For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.

At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:

1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.

Thank you for your input.

xxxx123abcxxxx

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Quote from: BMG86 on June 18, 2019, 09:33:09 AM

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.

For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.

At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:

1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.

xxxx123abcxxxx

sr. member

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 18, 2019, 01:20:25 AM

thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. i was looking forward to a revision of the count.

i'm partial to the scenario where (1) completes ~$12k. looking at the proportions of the internal waves 1 and 3, i expect a more pronounced fifth wave than this quick push above $9k.

Quite possibly at a juncture here with two options; either...

1. the final wave-5 from the 09-JUN low has completed at the 17-JUN high (Full Moon!), and the top is already complete at the 9440 BITSTAMP zone; or
2. the final wave-5 is going to subdivide and extend further towards the 11390 BITSTAMP zone, or beyond.

A loss of 10.8/GBTC and 8200/BTC ought to give credence to the first scenario.

fabiorem

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Quote from: guoyu78 on June 18, 2019, 10:47:07 AM

The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Thats because Eliott wave analysis works better after the movement happened, not before. Like the OP said, the chart indicates price and structure, but not the time of it.

Personally, I dont believe anymore that we are going to see 5k at the end of this month. If it was to be like that the price would have fall back to 6k during the recent $1500 "correction". Also I believe we have more hodlers now than we had two months ago, and all this FUD about CSW, Satoshi, etc, are making the hodlers more resilient, just to make opposition to the bad actors.

You can notice the OP moved the 5k to September, to maintain the wave analysis, but after August the price will probably go to full recovery mode. It would made more sense if the low is put at 7k, giving a 5k range between it and 12k.

guoyu78

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The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Price is NEVER going down to under 6 thousand dollars from now on, it would require a lot of pull backs all in a row without a proper increase in between and that is unlikely to happen, how could it go down constantly without going up on a bull market time, its not like we went above 20 thousand dollars neither so there are still a lot of support and very little resistance left.

I don't use charts that much but even looking at the price and how it moved in the past 2 months we can clearly say its going up for now until an undecided date.

Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 10. (Read 7639 times)