Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 11. (Read 7639 times)

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. i was looking forward to a revision of the count.

i'm partial to the scenario where (1) completes ~$12k. looking at the proportions of the internal waves 1 and 3, i expect a more pronounced fifth wave than this quick push above $9k.

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/c1vg8o/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_solstice_update/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market which began from the lows of 06-FEB-2019, has now retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into JUN-2019.

The largest pullback of this bull market occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX. Afterwards, from mid-MAY to mid-JUN, price action produced a choppy sideways affair elapsing a month with no clear direction.

Consequently, it was expected the first wave of the bull market had completed, and the first notable pullback of the bull market was imminently underway, correlating with the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage which gripped the stockmarket. This has proved to be incorrect. The month of choppy sideways price action has resolved with a breakout to the upside, necessitating a revision to the Elliott Wave model…



The characteristics of the 2019 bull market thus far, can be summarised by the following revised Elliott Wave model:


The final and fifth wave of the waveset appears to be underway since 09-JUN. The following price zones speculate where this may terminate; using BITSTAMP prices:


The first aforementioned Fibonacci zone has already been reached; hence, there is a possibility to suggest the uptrend has either completed, or is nearing completion.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) passively tracks the price of Bitcoin, but trades on the OTC markets from Mon to Fri during the hours of US equity markets. The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves; at this point in time a drop to 10.8 is required to suggest the uptrend is complete…



Once the uptrend concludes, it completes the first notable advance of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market. At which point, a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement may be expected for the first notable pullback of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market; perhaps commencing in the week of the Solstice and elapsing a couple of months over the summer lull. Afterwards, the bull market is expected to parabolically reignite by the early autumn and head towards new all-time highs in 2020.

The long-term overall Elliott Wave model suggests four PRIMARY degree waves completed from mid-2010 to early-2019, and the fifth advancing wave is currently underway. Waves of PRIMARY degree elapse from a few months to a couple of years.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…


Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.



Notable dates and seasonal esoteric trivia…


Guesswork is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

To me it looks more like your Complex scenario is playing out. We are going up very fast with only minor pullbacks. We may see 11k+ in the next week or 2 at this rate.

Idealized guesswork Elliott Wave model, indicative of price/structure, not time...



 

I'm even surprised that most people do react or being shocked when theres a sudden plunged on btc price after a

price rally without even realizing that the thing they do like to see is like having an unlimited boost up without

even realizing that a healthy market do always have that price pullback or correction.

About Elliot Wave thing,im aware of this stuff when I'm still on Forex but I don't think it would be more precise or
applicable on crypto market.

Exactly, that's exactly what I tried to make clear in my previous post; all the AT and more with the Elliot waves one has the certainty AFTER that the prices are shown in the graph.
AT in general, Elliot, Gann, Fibonacci, etc. they can help the trader or the investor but they will never be perfect sciences, otherwise we would all be rich and we would follow the same rules and indicators.

I see nothing wrong in this pullbacks. I would be rather afraid if the price will go up even higher to 10K or more without any drawbacks.

This is normal price action and we have seen it already a few times during the last few years.

30, 50 or 70% drop after such a spike is common and was expected. All indicators signaled such a course of action.

Maybe these shorter time intervals are not so clear but if someone is watching the weekly chart for the BTC price, then everything is clear as for a preschooler.

It is surprising that someone could be surprised by the recent drops and even lose money.

Returning to the main topic, I think that the OP analysis is very interesting and will probably work.

In that standard bubble chart, it would be the "first sell off" and "bear trap" phase. I believe we are already on it, because it fell $1500 in just some days. Some bearwhales are in a hurry to be trapped. The "despair" phase from the previous bubble is already over, and we are back to the mean.

We can call it amazing when it actually happens.

I've seen some decent wave analysis suggesting the primary wave hasn't terminated yet as the OP believes. It will take some time to determine who is correct about that. Here are some alternative ideas:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/PvHsXRVl-Bitcoin-price-overview-waves-06-06-2019/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gTJaNkxb-Bitcoin-price-overview-waves-04-06-2019/

Amazing. That is only $200 higher then my prediction from 20th march  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.50259426   I speculated the bear trap will be in full motion at that time.

About 10 years ago when I started to trade stocks I learnt of the Elliott Wave method and was intriged by it. I basically got all the courses, ebooks and other trading material on Elliott Wave type of trading.

I even had a type of software that would search all the stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq and would find ones that gave a signal. However the issues with Elliot Wave was this...

It works great in hindsight... however its very difficult to use in real time.

I would lose money constantely and decided to drop it all together. I think if you want to use EW then you need to use some other form of TA such as trends, moving averages, support/resistance, etc.

In fact OP tries to give its subjective evaluation of the market; AT is always valid AFTER, when there is a clear and definitive graph .... you can never be 100% certain of a trend until it is confirmed, or denied, by prices and the graph.

Here is why OP has indicated two possible scenarios from now until 2020.

if his count is correct, then this is only the first of two legs down. the bounce in between would probably take some weeks to complete. sometimes B waves drag out a long time.

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

since what is invalidated?

It is a very good analysis because Elliot can apply with his theory, however, it is just a mathematical tool. Have you not applied ELLIOT when the bitcoin is entangling? I mean for me it is always true in Bullih Tendency or Bearish Tendency, in fact you can check it in the graph, but in the current stage of the market it is difficult to forecast it, since it is invalidated many times in the accumulation and distribution stages of the market.

Its a possibility, but rare. It would be an unnecessary complication denoting a strong bounce to follow.
Simple structures are given priority and anticipated first, and then adjusted if required.
Personally would expect the mini flash crash low to be revisited, completing an overall Expanded Flat structure.
A Running Flat is more likely to occur at the end of a pullback, not half-way through it.

Thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. It's always nice to see some potential wave counts. This looks plausible.

It looks like your predicted A of (2) is an expanded flat. What probability would you give to a running flat instead?