Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 6. (Read 7652 times)

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127 and $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:


As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.

Let's take it one wave at a time!  
 

Is it correct, that according to your wave count wave5 would bring us to around ~$123k ?

With price/RSI positive divergence on the 4-hr timeframe, and a potential completed waveset; it appears the decline from the 26-OCT-2019 spike high may have concluded, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% in size.

At this juncture, a move beyond 8800 BITSTAMP may signal the resumption of the bull market; however, a move below 8490 BITSTAMP would suggest the decline is subdividing and extending to lower prices.







As a side note, the stockmarket may be gearing for a spectacular bull market breakout, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average can remain above 25,750 for the remainder of the year...



Projections are indicative of price & structure, not time.
 

Facebook is 10 year old, if not more. Google is even older than facebook. Apple and Microsoft are from the 80s.
And still people invest in these companies, they have a huge market. And the improvements in their products can be compared to improvements in bitcoin code.

Thank you I appreciate your efforts to explain the cycles Bitcoin went through the whole decade.

Thank you for your chart. Personally, do not agree with your interpretation of Elliott Wave.

—From 2010 to 2017, there have been 3 primary trends in Bitcoin: 2 rising, 1 declining.
—From 2010 to 2019, there have been 5 primary trends in Bitcoin: 3 rising, 2 declining.

The declines are apparent on any momentum indicator such as the RSI, being oversold on a weekly timeframe, with sub 30 readings...

Ok this is my chart. I counted since btc was 1$ then 5 waves ended with their ABC correction and consolidation mid 2016

https://i.ibb.co/FmZ9rw6/Screenshot-20191109-094930.png

It's difficult to comment without seeing your wave count. Could you show us a chart?

From the December 2018 low, the OP's preferred count puts us in a Primary Wave 5, not Wave 3. See here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52880531

Hi, I'm a big fan of Elliott waves and I just wonder if the last crash from 19800$ to 3180$ was wave 2 ABC correction of wave one that started in 23 May 2016 and peaked in 2017 December. Now according to my theory the wave 3 has already started in 17 December 2018 and will peak at around 300k mid 2021. I hope Elliott waves experts here have a look at my opinion.

thank you, very insightful. the magnitude of wave [ i ] was so large that i wasn't sure how to approach sub-wave proportions. i had forgotten all about the possibility of a leading diagonal!

my elliott wave is a bit rusty.

Assuming the current pullback for MINUTE [ ii ] wave ends around $8,460 BITSTAMP (which is a Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of MINUTE [ i ] wave), then a typical 1.618% extension would be expected for MINUTE [ iii ] wave —barring any subdivisions and extensions. This would provide an approximate target of $12,470 BITSTAMP —which is also around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire INTERMEDIATE ( 2 ) decline from 26-JUN to 23-OCT.

However, since MINUTE [ i ] was the third highest daily gain in Bitcoin history, subsequent waves MINUTE [ iii ] and MINUTE [ iv ] and MINUTE [ v ] could be consecutively smaller to form an overall Leading Diagonal...


 

any thoughts on the expected magnitude of wave (iii)?

looking at bitstamp---and based on the current wave (ii) low which could change---a 1.618 extension would mean an approximate retest of the yearly highs in the upper $13000s. does that sound about right, or do you have a different target in mind?

Marquise, enough trying to kick BTC because of "old tech" etc etc... I have listened it multiple times from the altcoin fans - they think the newer is the tech, the better and more useful it is. That's simply not true. There is a lot of useless new tech. And there is a lot of good new tech, which nobody cares about, and will never do so. The value of tech is its social impact, not just innovation.

You tell people care about "blockchain", not BTC? Not my experience. To me "blockchain" is just a new buzzword, just like "5G" or other overhyped tech. Blockchain is a good technology, but is nothing revolutionary,or use-in-everything solution. The decentralized global currency is way more disruptive, than just another technology, be it blockchain or anything else.

Besides that, its all not about the tech, but is about loyal community and brand awareness. Still the best programmers are working on BTC, and the BTC will attract the biggest talents, because... it is one level above anything else, I believe any of alt developers will be honored to be invited to work on BTC. Alts are... well.. "alts" - meaning they are an alternative research. Their value is to be a test ground for the BTC - if they develop anything of significance, BTC could absorb it. Some of alts will grow to fill some other niches. Niches, only niches.

That's my take on it. I don't express it as often as you express yours, but I just felt someone should intervene in your monologue. Your speculations are interesting, but are unfounded. Do you think you can envision the future, and have to share your revelations with us, the unwashed ones..? 

$164 is 3 billion market cap, it is inline with top 10 valuations and there is no specific reason that BTC should not align with those valuations.

People who buy into BTC now, a 10 year old technology (when was the last time you invested heavily into 56k modems? must be aware that this can be a decade long falling knife. Just be aware that this can happen, I remember when BTC was $430 in April of 2016, it was not long ago, and nothing has changed fundamentally since then quite the contrary, as competition is catching up.

There are other healthier markets to invest in but crypto will probably be a thing for the elite with index migration of stocks to proprietary platforms such as NASDAQ.

BTC and decentralized space can very much become a currency for the 21st century proletariat, the underclass, as fiat collapses while elite is already on blockchain in stock and bond markets.

There are indications of this already when researching who actually uses BTC, Venezuela - a country in economic ruin. The slogan of crypto in the past was "banking for the unbanked" or something like that - this is not a customer base with immense wealth to spare.

The elite top 1% will copy index tech from waves and stellar (there are no patents to protect this tech) and migrate their clients. Their clients? Every Fortune 500 and top company in the world.

Dedicated index platforms are lucky to capture 1-10% ($200bn-$2tn) of global trade on a 5 year horizon. So that's where the profit will be as far as decentralized growth. 99% of crypto will be centralized in that same time span and the market value will be tens of trillions.

This hypothesis is not visible in the present market yet so I would not advise shorting BTC, it can impulse to $35k easily. This is fundamental analysis spanning the 2020's, very long term.

There is no indication that the original blockchain called BTC, is on track to compete in that environment. It was not designed to do that and the market is forked into several new chains like Bitcoin cash and satoshi vision. It is fragmented and dev talent can see the writing on the wall and adapt to the unfolding situation by selling knowledge to enterprise space and getting back inline with status quo.

The main cause of this evolution is that BTC and ETH hit a scaling wall 2 years ago and lost critical momentum and competitive advantage. Decentralized merchants (underclass) are of marginal importance compared to Fortune 500 (top 1%). Decentralization may revive as a concept if the future is particulary dystopian, but for now, mainstream does not care about decentralization. But they do care about blockchain.

The 1-2-3-4-5 labeling is of smaller degree. The A-B-C is labeling is part of a lager degree.
Therefore, the A-B-C corrects a larger 1-2-3-4-5 not seen on the limited chart.


In the aforementioned Spanish website, the following is said in regards to a truncated fifth wave failure...


—After the “failure” has occurred, the price should go back the entire movement of the previous impulse pattern, that is, it should return to the origin of the pattern.

—If we are facing a failure pattern, the market should probably go back to the origin of wave 1.


Note the bold typefaced words. Exact science, is not exact science.

When a fifth wave failure occurs, it is a sign of weakness forewarning of a deeper than usual retrace in the opposite direction. On smaller degree waves this could more likely retrace the entire prior impulse, but perhaps less likely to do so on larger degree waves.


 

another much more complete page (Spanish) on  truncated failed fifth waves:

https://felixmayoral.org/2016/04/16/las-ondas-de-elliott-4/

Good!




I get this example on that page:


sorry, I see you have written a new lettering.


Although the example may not be correct, the text does refer to the Elliot Wave theory



Sorry but I am more confused with your labeling, how can the ABC correction be larger than the previous impulse?

Personally, not heard of that Elliott Wave rule before. Seen many truncated failed fifth waves which have not completely erased the entire prior impulse.

P.S. Not seeing a fifth wave failure in your example: https://i.imgur.com/OTw0EMV.png
 

It is not a prognosis of mine, I mean the Elliot Wave Theory. As I understand it, when the 5th fault occurs, the full impulse is retracted, in this case, from 20k to 0.

Sorry because I haven't found an appointment in English:

https://www.labolsadepsico.com/ondas-impulsivas-fallo-de-5/

I don't know if there is any modern Elliot theory that gives us a less catastrophic target.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred) using GBTC...