Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, Bitcoin has surged to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into the final week of JUN-2019. True to form, the 2019 bull market has unfolded in subdividing and extending parabolic curves.
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the 2019 bull market may be modelled as follows:
https://i.imgur.com/Tf6Y348.jpg+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR) : subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR) : a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY) : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN) : a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (06-JUN — 26-JUN?) : a parabolic rise.
The advancing Wave-3 and Wave-5 have subdivided and extended as parabolic curves, the nature of which have been challenging to study and predict. Mania-driven markets are just about impossible to forecast as the waves extend and subdivide fractally.
A speculative look into the structure of Wave-5 which started from the 06-JUN low to 26-JUN(?) high is detailed as follows, using COINBASE:
https://i.imgur.com/zKGFgGR.pngAny additional advance may be resisted by the following Fibonacci retracement zones, using BITSTAMP:
@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@16125: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@17780: Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves. Using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund as a proxy, it appears a couple of additional waves may still be outstanding to complete the waveset:
https://i.imgur.com/I4CZRgI.jpgThe 2019+ bull market is expected to unfold in five INTERMEDIATE degree legs: three advancing, interwoven with two declining. This waveset of five INTERMEDIATE degree legs is expected to complete an overall PRIMARY degree wave.
Should the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones fail to conclude the first leg of the bull market, and if price action marches to new all-time highs; then the advance may be considered as the entirety of the bull market inclusive of all legs:
https://i.imgur.com/0s0uRRd.jpgGiven the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.
A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index…
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
A more orderly paced scenario would consider the 2019 advance as the first leg of the bull market nearing completion. Which when complete, leads to the first notable pullback, followed by a resumption of the uptrend:
https://i.imgur.com/XRjl4M2.jpgAdjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.
Should the first leg of the bull market be nearing completion, the following expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:
@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@7200: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@5435: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)
@4360: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement
The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 26-JUN high thus far is 140 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 70 days, it may be over by early SEP.
A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.
Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as wave-W, the current 2019 bull market as wave-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as wave-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets:
https://i.imgur.com/0AIPD3g.jpg28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit
Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN..?
initial expectation for the second leg bear market is towards $4,257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market which begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs; where reality of the bubble bursting only just is grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.
Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:
—thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
—en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets
Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.
It is musing to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.
Commodities and currencies, and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in A-B-C Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.
The wave characteristics of Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.
Given the nature of wave characteristics, this suggests the behaviour cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a currency nor a commodity; and so therefore in their current state, shall never be adopted as robust mediums of exchange for goods and services or as a storage medium of value.
Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-time highs is foolish hodlr's fodder.
Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows:
" as per your previous Elite Wave theory you show me how bear market will continuance for 2 year cycle and you also mention "
Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.
Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
"and also you give a point where this wave can go further"
Bear Market Inflection Points
—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.
Bull Market Inflection Points
—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.
as off no i really look like struggle for how to understand market behavior..? and i can't able to understand elite wave theory currently.
i am not able to apply formula on bitcoin chart, are we in ABC corrections Or WXY Wave ..? Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN
. I was not posting here, but I surely read this thread. Didn't post, just because the main point of our disagreement on the old thread seems to be resolved (hopefully), and here we see pure technical, quite interesting analysis, without questionable long-term predictions you were making in the old thread.
