Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 12. (Read 7639 times)

Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, the Bitcoin markets have gained an approx 160% thus far into MAY-2019.

The largest pullback of this 3-month uptrend occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX.

The wave structure still suggests five impulsive waves completed from the 06-FEB low to the 14-MAY high.

Since the mini flash crash low on 17-MAY, the markets have risen between 30%-45% thus far, varying between the exchanges; however, price action has currently unfolded in three waves. This is currently suggesting the mini flash crash low was a wave-A decline, and the current advance an irregular wave-B, as part of an ongoing correction.

Using BITFINEX prices, an exchange which didn’t exhibit a pronounced mini flash crash during mid-MAY, the following common Fibonacci-based irregular wave-B target zones can be calculated:




There is no minimum required criteria to qualify an irregular wave-B, a marginal high above the orthodox top is sufficient. However, the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B is 1.618 times the length of wave-A, and so beyond may require a revised outlook.

9200/BITFINEX and 9760/BITSTAMP is the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B. Given the wide price range across multiple exchanges, it is challenging to pinpoint which exchange measures the true tolerable price extent of the irregular wave-B.

Continuing to assume the 14-MAY orthodox high has completed a wave cycle, the following provides averaged zones to target the first notable pullback of the 2019+ bull market, using BITSTAMP prices:


The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.



Indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

OP, what are your current thoughts on Bitcoins movements now? It seems like your complex scenario is coming into play with the parabolic moves bitcoin has been making with only minor pullbacks.

Also, now everyone seems to be screaming bitcoin to one million dollars again. It reminds me of December 2017 when bitcoin was in its euphoria stage.

Parabolic price curves are driven by mania and euphoria, and since 25-APR-2019, the Bitcoin markets have manifested its first one for the 2019+ bull market. Such price action is often challenging to navigate using technical analysis in an attempt to quantify the qualitative.  

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the parabolic rise from 25-APR to 14-MAY is currently being considered as a final fifth wave of an overall 1-2-3-4-5 sequence which began on 06-FEB-2019.

The overall wave structure still currently suggests a looming pullback to commence imminently.

At this juncture, any price advance beyond the 14-MAY high is being considered as an irregular wave-B. Using BITSTAMP prices, the following are price target zones for such a scenario:


There is no minimum required criteria to qualify an irregular wave-B, a marginal high above the orthodox top is sufficient. Hence, neither of the aforementioned target zones are required to be reached. However, the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B is 1.618 times the length of wave-A, and so beyond would require a revised wave structure.

Assuming the 14-MAY orthodox high has completed a wave cycle, the following provides averaged zones to target the first notable pullback of the 2019+ bull market, using BITSTAMP prices:


The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, representing a 40% price decline, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

The stockmarket has confirmed the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage; after a forthcoming bounce, the stockmarket is excepted to sell-off over the early summer, declining approx 10% from the MAY high towards approx Dow Jones 24,000.

Bitcoin markets are yet to confirm the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage, a drop below the 14-MAY low, i.e. BITSTAMP 7620, ought to provide the signal.



Indicative of price/structure, not time.
  

@buwaytress
Obviously AT is all speculation and everything is true / false until it is confirmed by the graphs, but OP seemed at the beginning to exclude scenario B, the unrealistic one, because it is too extreme, while now the graphs show a greater correlation with it.

Finally, I don't understand why you say that if Bitcoin hits the 10k then it loses meaning; from the graph of OP it seems instead that Bitcoin can be pushed up to $ 11000, or little more, that should be really 50% of retracement of the whole movement from 19k to 3k.

All that remains is to wait and see in another month.

I was expecting a drop at 6500 or even before that and mirrored it in my trades. I made some money but not nearly what I could have made if I knew this scenario is going to happen.

We can clearly see that the bullish momentum is not stopping with still big volume and a very similar pattern to the one two days ago. Will it mean another small pump? The chart really starts to look like one of those bubble charts in 2013 and 2017 where the price corrects only a little and gains twice more and repeats it again and again.

Definitely one of those slow burn threads, under the radar and well worth reading, whether or not you buy into it. Like that OP admits in first post already this is purely speculative guesswork (Cause that's all TA really is, not matter what the experts want you to believe!).

Sell in May and then go away, huh? First time I've heard that, but you know, Bitcoin's been making powerful strides this entire half of the month so far, so yeah, I agree it's pretty scary that if we don't see the pullback soon, which should have happened even at 6.3, then 7k, then we're chipping away yet again at the long term lifeline. Of course, this could all just be meaningless once 10k is hit and then we don't ever look back.

There is little to do, in the end Bitcoin always amazes everyone and does what it wants!
Hardly anyone, I believe, expected such a steep and continuous climb, and without any pause; I'm almost afraid that at this point the scenario B proposed by OP in the opening post may occur: an almost continuous climb for almost all summer and then a new and violent vertical dip!


Scenario B (Complex)

Thanks a lot for your in-depth analysis. I have been following your thread (including the previous one) since Spring 2018 as one of the very few in speculation section. After this year, I must say that you were close to reality with many predictions. Keep up your great work!

good stuff bro thank you 

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/bnrctv/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_sell_in_may_and/

Since the orthodox bear market low on 06-FEB-2019, the Bitcoin markets have surged to an average 125% gain in approx 100 days approaching mid-MAY. The 3-month rally has now retraced a Fibonacci 23.6% of the entire 2018 bear market. True to form, the bull market has exerted itself in a parabolic rise.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, five waves appear to have completed as follows:


Given the comparative magnitude and timeframe of the aforementioned waves, the waves are now being considered as MINOR degree. Barring any wave extensions, it appears five MINOR waves have completed, and thus completing the first INTERMEDIATE degree wave of the bull market. A wave of INTERMEDIATE degree usually elapses from weeks to months towards completion.

The expectation now suggests the first notable pullback of the bull market to imminently commence, unfolding in a three wave A-B-C structure. The following are averaged target zones for the pullback, using BITSTAMP prices:


The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

A decline to the 06-FEB low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.





Once the pullback completes, the third and most powerful wave of the 2019+ bull market ought to commence towards the psychological $10,000 level and beyond.


Since 2016, both the stockmarket and Bitcoin markets have been in synchronisation: both started bull markets in 2016, both had bear markets in 2018, both resumed bull markets in 2019.

Seasonally, the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage is currently being expressed in the stockmarket.

Since the beginning of May, the Dow Jones has declined 4.50% —the largest decline since the 2019 bull market commenced.

Should the Bitcoin markets decline in MAY, a continued synchronisation may suggest further declines in the stockmarket.

A break below the 25-MAR low of 25,370 in the Dow Jones may suggest further declines, a break below the 11-MAR low of 25,200 would confirm a stockmarket pullback to be underway. If so, an approx 10% decline in the stockmarket towards Dow Jones 24,000 may be expected, followed by resumption of the bull market to new all-time highs. A rise above Dow Jones 26,500 ought to obviate the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage.



Analysis is speculative, and charts are indicative of price/structure —not time. The projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated, perhaps not at all…!

Happy to have found your new thread 2019

At the moment your analysis seems to be well aligned to the Bitcoin movement and, given the strong overbought and the climb of over 100% so far, so a last extension to the last strength you indicated about $ 7000, probably even for cut legs and short positions; from there I believe that a month of pause and correction will be necessary and healthy ...... we'll see!

Updates continue 

BITSTAMP Support Zones:

BITSTAMP Resistance Zones:

BITSTAMP Support Zones:


A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.

Currently guessing the following with EOS, thinking perhaps a $10-$14 target range, beyond that may require an adjustment of the count...



Indicative of price/structure, not time.

"At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000."

That would get ugly.

There is a split between people on whether this is the impulse to a new wave

or it is some sort of correction, so could break back down and

either form a higher low and back up

or capitulate again.

I wonder what you make of this chart

EOS chart which perhaps might give us a clue where the market is

the triangle for me was some 4 or IV wave

and perhaps the rise from $1.55 was an ABC

I only ask because they two assets have had a correlation for a while with only a lag in time

BITSTAMP quoted prices...

Have noted $5898 and $6390 as resistance levels, seeing that $6000 zone as temporary psychological resistance.
Currently thinking $6882 to $7026 may serve as technical resistance where the first notable pullback occurs.

Not studied Hyperwave in-depth, so can't comment on the theory. However, markets are fractal and so would consider 2013 as a Hyperwave top too.

At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000.

I like that all of your scenarios are short term bullish. They are a bit different from what most people are drawing.

The most popular scenarios that you can see online predict that we will fail to break resistance at 6000 and go down from there, with bears seeing it as final capitulation below 3000 dollars and bulls as a drop to 4000, failure to break previous support and another try at 6000 later this year. You see much higher prices in the near future and I hope you are right.

What is your opinion about hyperwave theory supporters who say we need another leg down before we pass 6000?

Technically speaking, since PRIMARY[3] wasn't the shortest, the length of PRIMARY[5] is theoretically unlimited.

Usually when PRIMARY[3] overextends, and given the sizeable magnitude of PRIMARY[1] wave; it is often the case PRIMARY[5] is somewhere between 1 and 1.618 times the length of PRIMARY[1] through to PRIMARY[3] wave, projected from the PRIMARY[4] low.

In the event of a PRIMARY[5] extension, other Fibonacci-based multiples are: 1.786, 2, 2.236, 2.382, 2.5, 2.618, 2.786, 3, etc.

I hope members here don’t discount your speculations. You were correct about the 2018 crash and some of your charts even shows the low...

Definitely have to emphasise it is all about price movement and not time!..

Also you don’t believe Primary 5 can generate more than 1.6x or anything more will not validate Elliot wave model?

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/bf7dkc/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_easter_update/

Since the 15-DEC-2018 low, the Bitcoin markets have rebounded with a 75% gain into Easter 2019 —quite a resurrection from the 2018 bear market which saw an 85% decline in value. With price action unfolding in impulsive waves thus far, it is becoming increasingly apparent to suggest a bull market is underway.

A simple Eggiott Wave model would propose a five wave structure, consisting of three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:


The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years.

Timewise, the first two bull markets (Waves 1 and 3) elapsed 1142 days on average; and, the first two bear markets (Waves 2 and 4) elapsed 395 days on average. Bull markets have lasted almost three times longer than bear markets. Thus, an intuitive linear projection would propose the current third and final bull market (Wave 5) to complete by the year 2022 or earlier. However, since the current fifth and final Eggiott Wave is by typical definition only required to revisit or just exceed the high of the third wave, it may suggest the current bull market may be comparatively contracted in price and time.

The first Bitcoin halving occurred on 28-NOV-2012, approx midway through the first bull market. The second Bitcoin halving occurred on 09-JUL-2016, approx midway through the second bull market. The third Bitcoin halving is tentatively scheduled for 21-MAY-2020, perhaps midway through the third and final bull market or at the end?

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth and final wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127 calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…




Projected from the 15-DEC-2018 low, the aforementioned conservative price targets are a 630% to 1020% gain, or 825% on average. The average gain alone would be sufficient enough to qualify the current fifth and final PRIMARY[5] wave which would exceed the 2017 high of the third PRIMARY[3] wave, albeit marginally.

However, for the popular altcoins like LTC and ETH, an 825% gain projected from their 2018 lows would only retrace half of their respective bear markets. Even a 1000% gain in LTC and ETH would fail to match their 2017 all-time highs. Furthermore, there are altcoins such as LTC where the 2018 bear market low overlapped the high of their respective 2013 bull markets highs. Such a price overlap negates an impulsive wave structure, and thus would suggest a corrective wave structure as follows (indicative of price/structure, not time):





The short to medium term wave structure of Bitcoin thus far appears to be impulsively advancing from the orthodox 06-FEB-2019 bear market low, with maximum pullbacks at 11% on average. Four waves seem to have completed which have been classified as MINUTE degree —waves of such degree elapse from a few days to a week:




The third MINUTE degree wave which completed on 10-APR, itself subdivided into five smaller impulsive waves classified as MINUETTE degree waves. A decline below the low of 15-APR would suggest MINUTE[iv] pullback is still in progress which ought to find support at the low of 04-APR. Otherwise however, it appears the final MINUTE[v] degree wave appears to be currently underway. Once MINUTE[v] completes, the first MINOR degree wave of the bull market will have completed, and the first largest pullback of the bull market will commence —perhaps an approx 30% decline. At this point in time, price will be required to decline to the 24-FEB high to terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market. The degree of wave labeling is currently tentative and subject to revision (i.e. may be either upgraded or downgraded in degree); however, the waves remain fixed.


Charts are indicative of price/structure, not time.