Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 7. (Read 7639 times)

Using the BLX/BNC index: PRIMARY[2] declined 86.08% and PRIMARY[4] declined 83.70% —both taking an average of a year to unfold.

If a bear market CYCLE II wave is underway, it would most certainly decline 85% to 95% —hence breaking below the 2018 low, and quite possibly heads towards the PRIMARY[1] high at $1200.

Return to $0...? Who knows. But a sustained decline towards the PRIMARY[2] low of $164 would be a catastrophic collapse beyond a return to survival.

For now, as long as price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low, projections can remain optimistic in regards to a continuing bull market headed for all-time highs. Should price fall beneath the 23-OCT-2019 low, the following Fibonacci zones provide critical support levels using BITSTAMP prices....


 

Will the "alternative" bear scenario become the "preferred" scenario once the 23-OCT low is breached?


What do you mean by "reverse the entire impulsive wave?" A truncated fifth would imply weakness, but it wouldn't mean the following correction would erase 100% of previous gains.

but a truncated fifth wave failure would reverse the entire impulsive wave and also, violently, in this case, that would mean that the price would return to 0.

Do you think BTC can go to 0?

There are many Elliott Wave counts which suggest Wave-5 completed at the 2017 high.

However, when counting the individual constituent waves, the analysis on this thread suggests, either: Wave-5 is still currently in progress (preferred); or, completed at the 2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure (alternative).

Is it totally ruled out that the market made PRIMARY [5] in Dec / 17 and since then is doing CYCLE II?

Thanks for your updates.

I'd like to see analysis of global index excluding top 10. It's a $20 billion market, lots of potential.

Bears said the same thing in 2016. You know what happened next.

Also, I think the Speculation forum gives an overly bullish picture of market sentiment. This place is crawling with permabulls. In fact, this perspective makes it seem like the halving hasn't been priced in at all:

Halving awareness is too high in combination with merchant phase with branded tokenization which BTC was not designed for, regardless of how you want to spin that fact. XCP is simply just not good enough compared to dedicated index platforms. Market cannot grow from here without retail onramping, fiat will be rendered irrelevant by global index migration to proprietary blockchain platforms, so this is not value that decentralized space will be able to capture.

BTC is not some miracle solution to every world wide problem for the next millenia, I believe that it has already topped out based on fundamentals and that there will be a very drastic flip event some time soon, not involving any of the top 5 coins. Hyperbitcoinization pattern is a result of economic digitalization but the parabola is driven by other growth factors outside crypto and this pattern is visible in other industries such as integrated circuits (moores law).

I believe that there is a gamblers delusion in BTC market driven by leverage and speculation detached from reality.

Shifting focus away from something that was already rejected by mainstream towards global index tracking is better inorder to deflate expectations moving into 2020's.

It's unfortunate that it may have to top out at 35k and bring everyone with it to the abyss before the real market shift can initiate.

People need to get proper rekt, I guess, it has to burn deep enough for change to happen.

There are many more reasons for this viewpoint but it's already debated in post history, no need for repetition.

No doubt crypto has a future and trillions in market cap awaits, but it is healthier behaviour to shift focus away from individual chains to global index tracking, and then from there, begin cherry picking projects with solid fundamentals, there are a few x10 000 in there.

It paved the way for a new industry, let it go out with grace.

i'd love to see your count. would you mind sharing?

the OP believes we're in a primary wave 5, which naturally suggests that a bearish supercycle will follow the next bubble. i'm skeptical about that but the count seems plausible for now.

My current count has GBTC bottoming out around 8.10, BTC may have already bottomed out.  It should be a wave 2 or Y.  With a halving coming on May 23 2020, the dye for a move upwards is in motion.  At a rate of growth of less than 2% per annum after May 2020, the fiat banking system will be hard pressed to match BTC going forward, creating an infinite move upwards vis a vis fiat currencies.  This is the beginning of primary 3 or cycle 3.

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Trick or Treat…?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/dn8ie2/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_trick_or_treat/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market parabolically surged 345% from the low of 15-DEC-2018 to the high of 26-JUN-2019. Since the 26-JUN-2019 high, the market was spooked with a 48% decline into the low of 23-OCT-2019.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing Bull Scenario (Preferred) or a Bear Scenario (Alternative).

In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:




The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.

The Bullish Scenario (Preferred) suggests Wave-5 is still underway, and the bulls shall be treated to subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.

The Bear Scenario (Alternative) suggests a trick Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.

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Bull Scenario (Preferred)

The preferred bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.

INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far into the 23-OCT-2019 low. This 4-month decline unfolded in a three wave A-B-C structure. With technical momentum indicators such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) positively diverging from price action on multiple timeframes, it appears the pullback may be complete. However, the first set of five rising impulsive waves are yet to be discernible from the 23-OCT-2019 low.





Any further extended declines for INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback ought to be concluded at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:


From the 23-OCT-2019 low, the continuing bull market scenario would now suggest the start of a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) wave. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market. Subdividing and extending parabolic waves on exponential price scales are challenging to track. The maximum declines within INTERMEDIATE(3) wave ought to be around 40% in size, with averages of 20%-25%.

Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.

From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 and $35,127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:




As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.

---

Bear Scenario (Alternative)

The alternative bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.

In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.



The decline from the 26-JUN-2019 high to the 23-OCT-2019 low completed the first leg of the bear market. And now, the first bounce of the bear market may be currently underway retracing towards the following Fibonacci zones, using BITSTAMP prices:


Once the bear market bounce completes at any of the aforementioned resistance zones, the next phase of the decline is expected to commence, and break below the 2018 low.



At this point in time, the alternative bear market scenario may be paused for consideration whilst price action remains above the 23-OCT-2019 low.

The alternative bear market scenario may be gradually phased-out, step-by-step as follows:

    1. A rising five wave impulsive structure from the 23-OCT-2019 low.
    2. Price advancing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 26-JUN-2019 to 23-OCT-2019.
    3. Price exceeding the 26-JUN-2019 high.

---

Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Halloween!
 

Hey ABC, thanks for all the great pointers.... the 15% has happened it seems.  Would love to hear an update on your thoughts for where we go from here! Cheers. 

looks like we got our 15% bounce. it would have been nice to run below the .618 and form some nice bullish divergences, but that would have been too easy!

xxxx123abcxxxx, you think the bottom is in!? i'd love to see an updated count.

As soon as I saw the jump i thought about this post.

We can say that the decline of the market is really finished as the support zone got up to 8500 (now at 8300) ¿correct?  Or is ir jusr anoghe part of the wave?

If correct,  we should se a movement around a range for some days and then again a possibly up or down according to the last movement, and if the decline is terminated in the up direction.

I love this post is pure gold on knowledge!

Expecting the decline to conclude at either of the following BITSTAMP support zones...


At which point, the following criteria ought to signal a potential end to the decline:

1. A +15% bounce.
2. Positive divergence on a momentum indicator such as the RSI, on daily and 4-hr timeframes.
3. A rising impulsive wave structure consisting of 5 waves.
 

newbies can't post images. you can bypass the restriction by purchasing a copper membership for 0.00302224 BTC:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.24371150
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=credit;promote

the image was also blocked by the image proxy, not sure why. it shows up if i post it on imgur:

Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.

https://ibb.co/KscqfdX


Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?


PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

Yes, its possible with the following requirements...

1. An impulsive 5 wave rise from the 18-OCT-2019 low (so far 3 waves).
2. A rise beyond the 11-OCT-2019 high of $8800 approx.

Is it possible the last leg down to $7,800 (ending October 18th) was a truncated/failed wave? I'm beginning to wonder if we've already seen the bottom. Something like this: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52813750

Normally I would favor the beige scenario but this price action is very trolly. Not sure.....

A rise beyond the OCT-2019 high of ~$8800 may obviate the following extended decline scenarios...

BITSTAMP support zones...