12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/btc-usd
Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) - page 3. (Read 7639 times)
First chart given preference if price advances beyond 13-FEB-2020 high...
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12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/btc-usd
It appears you may be suggesting that 2018-present is an ongoing wave-4 Triangle, which is alternating with a wave-2 from 2011.
Personally believe this to be incorrect since the suggested wave-2 is of a lower degree with differing price, time and momentum characteristics.
Typical momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are measures of magnitude in regards to recent price changes within a defined time period, to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Elliott Waves of equivalent degree ought to exhibit similar momentum conditions...
Personally believe this to be incorrect since the suggested wave-2 is of a lower degree with differing price, time and momentum characteristics.
Typical momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are measures of magnitude in regards to recent price changes within a defined time period, to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Elliott Waves of equivalent degree ought to exhibit similar momentum conditions...
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. By time and price, the count is valid. I've gone through all rules and guidelines multiple times and there is nothing wrong there.
As for momentum and degree, the proper method (if there is one) would be the Elliott Wave oscillator or similar measure of absolute difference. We don't have enough data to plot 2011 at the monthly time frame but EWO appears to support the referenced count (as well as your count):
It doesn't seem appropriate to apply a relative oscillator, especially at the weekly level, to determine degree on a decade long chart. It looks like you're just pointing out weekly overbought and oversold extremes. None of this is mandatory by Elliott Wave rules anyway, though I see where you're coming from.
Anyway, I appreciate your opinion, to each his own. I thought it was an alternative worth keeping in mind before assuming sub-$1K prices. If the triangle wave (a) is breached, it's obviously easy to rule out. Cheers.
What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.
A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with a prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.
Could you be more specific? What specific rules or guidelines are being broken? Wave II is a zig zag, Wave IV is a triangle. The proportions may not be ideal, but the only rule I'm aware of is:
Quote
Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
It appears you may be suggesting that 2018-present is an ongoing wave-4 Triangle, which is alternating with a wave-2 from 2011.
Personally believe this to be incorrect since the suggested wave-2 is of a lower degree with differing price, time and momentum characteristics.
Typical momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are measures of magnitude in regards to recent price changes within a defined time period, to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. Elliott Waves of equivalent degree ought to exhibit similar momentum conditions...
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What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.
A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with a prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.
Could you be more specific? What specific rules or guidelines are being broken? Wave II is a zig zag, Wave IV is a triangle. The proportions may not be ideal, but the only rule I'm aware of is:
Quote
Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
Personal preference is the first scenario below. The first two scenarios suggest price is set to decline below the 15-DEC-2018 low…
—[1st chart]: The 11-year secular Bitcoin bull market ended in five PRIMARY degree waves at the 26-JUN-2019 high, where the fifth and final wave, i.e. PRIMARY[5] truncated as a failure; completing a CYCLE. Now a secular CYCLE degree bear market is underway, where price is set to decline below the 30-NOV-2013 high.
Scenario eliminated if price advances above the 13-FEB-2020 high.
—[2nd chart]: PRIMARY[4] decline is ongoing, and PRIMARY[5] is yet to commence. PRIMARY[4] is currently progressing in its final INTERMEDIATE(C) wave down, set to complete anywhere above the 30-NOV-2013 high.
Scenario eliminated if price overlaps the 30-NOV-2013 high.
—[3rd chart]: INTEREMDIATE(3) of PRIMARY[5] wave, is yet to imminently commence.
Scenario eliminated if price declines below the 06-FEB-2019 low.
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—[1st chart]: The 11-year secular Bitcoin bull market ended in five PRIMARY degree waves at the 26-JUN-2019 high, where the fifth and final wave, i.e. PRIMARY[5] truncated as a failure; completing a CYCLE. Now a secular CYCLE degree bear market is underway, where price is set to decline below the 30-NOV-2013 high.
Scenario eliminated if price advances above the 13-FEB-2020 high.
—[2nd chart]: PRIMARY[4] decline is ongoing, and PRIMARY[5] is yet to commence. PRIMARY[4] is currently progressing in its final INTERMEDIATE(C) wave down, set to complete anywhere above the 30-NOV-2013 high.
Scenario eliminated if price overlaps the 30-NOV-2013 high.
—[3rd chart]: INTEREMDIATE(3) of PRIMARY[5] wave, is yet to imminently commence.
Scenario eliminated if price declines below the 06-FEB-2019 low.
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What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.
A wave-4 Triangle of such a degree does not alternate with any prior wave-2 in regards to both magnitudes of price and time.
Sub $1000 target...
What do you think about this triangle idea? Easily invalidated by a break below the 2018 bottom. The proportions seem good, and we're seeing a potential V-bottom off the 200-week MA, similar to January 2015. Based on the 2015 and 2018 reactions to said MA I'd like to see how the weekly candle closes.
Really, a log scale for EW is a thing? WTH
Why not?
Really, a log scale for EW is a thing? WTH
Sub $1000 target...
*outdated prediction removed*
Update March 8:
Margin reward on primexbt will be removed april 1st when promo campaign ends. For this reason, the above price projection is no longer valid.
I believe all 3 of these had their decade and that competition catched up and will surpass it. Don't leverage these outdated instruments, research more up to date alternatives and invest moderately in those.
Don't become a late bagholder to early adopters with leveraged loss. It's similar to investing heavily in 56k modems at the cusp of fiber revolution.
Update March 8:
Margin reward on primexbt will be removed april 1st when promo campaign ends. For this reason, the above price projection is no longer valid.
I believe all 3 of these had their decade and that competition catched up and will surpass it. Don't leverage these outdated instruments, research more up to date alternatives and invest moderately in those.
Don't become a late bagholder to early adopters with leveraged loss. It's similar to investing heavily in 56k modems at the cusp of fiber revolution.
I’ve read your two EW threads and while I started as a skeptic, I’ve gotten a lot of useful info from your posts over the years. Keep up the good work!
Appreciated, thank you. Always best to keep an open mind. 
Elliott Wave is highly subjective; and depending on interpretation, the probable outcomes are often a best guess. But combined with disciplined account management, it is possible to develop an edge.
Shall endeavor to create a new thread if Bitcoin can find support around 8000, and then resume the bull market. Until then, personal interest wanes.
I’ve read your two EW threads and while I started as a skeptic, I’ve gotten a lot of useful info from your posts over the years. Keep up the good work!
—BTC (1st chart): scenario considered if price advances above 19-FEB-2020 high.
—GBTC (2nd/3rd chart): scenario considered if price declines below 19-FEB-2020 low.
—GBTC (2nd/3rd chart): scenario considered if price declines below 19-FEB-2020 low.
Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.
This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.
Thanks for the chart.
We can't really limit the factors that affects the overall standing or state of Bitcoin because, in general, the possible causes of the rise and fall of a crypto currency is unlimited whether it is an internal factors or external such as the demand for the coin or basically the law of supply and demand and many more. We could only make our best guess from the number of data charts in the movement in its price.
Also, for me, as the halving event is coming closer day by day the possible events that will happen narrows tightly unto the demand for Bitcoin to be massive and so is its price.
Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.
This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.
Thanks for the chart.
This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.
Thanks for the chart.
Yes, its an interesting setup for the internal proportions of MINUTE [iii] wave.
MINUTE [i ] is longer than MINUTE [iii] wave. And so since MINUTE [iii] cannot be the shortest wave of the set, the final MINUTE [v] wave (which ought to be currently underway) is limited to a maximum upside of 11756 (BITSTAMP).
So if price exceeds 11756 (BITSTAMP), then its likely MINUTE [iii] is extending and subdividing.
Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.
This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.
Thanks for the chart.
Hello xxxx123abcxxxx,
I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !
Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.
I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !
Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.
Thank you for your message.
The analysis is purely speculation —sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't!
Here are two ebooks you may find useful in learning the Elliott Wave principle...
Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior Hardcover
by A.J. Frost, Robert R. Prechter
https://gofile.io/?c=kNqpcI (78MB)
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading
by Wayne Gorman, Jeffrey Kennedy
https://gofile.io/?c=kIBATD (34MB)
Hello xxxx123abcxxxx,
I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !
Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.
I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !
Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.
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