Topic: 2022 Diff thread. (Read 9656 times)

Strong move with gear.



we made up 25 blocks in under 24 hours.



We did 156 blocks in only 21 hours pretty impressed.

496 blocks left to next jump.

We are almost done for this year maybe 150 block or so will finish this year.

Yesterday I took a quick look over at blockchair and it was showing ~120 blocks in the last 24 hours, now it's back to 146, with the storm almost gone I think as I see the worst hit town Buffalo is seeing only positive temperatures (Celsius) probably we're going back to normal or whatever we can call normal these days.

The current pace is -10%, sure good news for miners but for some, lol  , not quite enough.

Taking into account that even with all the possible discounts and bulk rates keeping all the miners active I would end up paying for them a consolidated 14 cents per kwh from around the 5-6th of January I will shut down all but two of them that I have moved in the main basement already before Christmas.
So, it's going to be cleaning, packing, and probably most likely selling for BTC (I already feel bad for the guy who is taking over), do a bit of not so honest accounting, and declaring myself happy with the outcome depending on how I juggle with BTC vs Euro profits.   
The most amazing thing is that I try to be sad about it but I feel more relieved than sad, looking back, man that was a pain in the ass! Funny at times, exciting, but a pain in the ass nevertheless.

In other non news,
Bitcoin Miner Argo Will Avoid Bankruptcy With $100M Bailout from Novogratz’s Galaxy
They keep throwing money at those businesses faster than at the best stripper club in town!

Anyhow, a late Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays to everyone, and I guess we'll move to a relaxed  2023 topic?

so we are now 128 behind

we should have done 318 blocks since Mikey posted we did

285

so 318/285 = 1.1157-1 or 11.57% off the pace over the last 2.2 days

or 89.5406% turned into 89.5809%

at this rate 31.4 t could be new diff

BTC price is under heavy pressure.

The rare price follows diff move could be developing.

Last time was when china cut miners off 40-50% and diff tanking was followed by price tanking.

Well, it doesn't matter anymore, does it? they also said they would keep their miners running while undergoing the bankruptcy process, I think they are filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy, which means they simply are not going to pay the lenders according to plan, no signs of giving up and total liquation yet, I won't be surprised if they get more funds from someone else.


Anyway, the current status :


A good part of it probably due to the extreme weather in the U.S, the pace will likely pick up once this is over, but sure thing is, no positive adjustment.

Merry Christmas!!





Big drop over last day and 3/4.

we did 214 blocks and should have done 272 blocks


214/272 = 21.33 % drop off

Pros and cons to isolating from rest of country last year we saw a shit ton of cons'   And the leadership should have been jailed for failing to cold proof the systems.

they were not jailed so it got cold lets see if they fixed their shit.

I think the bigger problem with ERCOT is that as an ISO, it is isolated from other grid interconnections.

In every case it allows the powers to be to freeze out well over 60% of its people. SO it seems pretty well planned to me.

I would guess you can have 5 or more acres and two large propane tanks. This allows you a 2 year supply of fuel.

It allows means you have a nice explosion risk with that much propane.

Fireplaces can be helpful in an emergency. It is pretty easy to store a few cords of wood. Even if you only have a 1/2 acre of land you can store a lot of cut wood.

I don't get this kind of thing, Texas is full of gas and oil and relies on electricity for heating, we don't have gas and oil and we rely on gas for heating, and in Siberia, they rely mainly on central heating having entire towns not connected to the gas network.
Who planned this s***!

So, before the blast hits, after Core declared bankruptcy,  Greenidge is next in line, NYDIG will basically purchase 2/3 of their machine and give them some extra money till next year, turning them from a mining farm to almost a hosting company and they will probably get suspended from NASDAQ too as they shares have gone well beyond $1 to 25 cents, from $18 a year ago.


And mentioning Core, how nice of them, even being bankrupt they still plan to help:
https://twitter.com/Core_Scientific/status/1606325456688422918

1/10 of the way in and 14.36 behind.

so very early.

So it seems like my previous guess of starting the new epoch with a very low pace is coming true, the hashrate that left in the last 2-3 days of the previous epoch was pretty huge, and so far we have these numbers.


I think it's fair to assume a 3% drop in difficulty for this epoch, something to wipe out that unstained hashrate that caused the last 3% increase.

Looking at the profitability chart, it's a lot worse than the price chart, a year ago, the profitability per th was 0.25$, now it's only 0.056$, that's a 77% drop. In fact, the highest we had during the top phase was 0.45$ per th (when many people were paying 15k for S19s), it's now 87% lower, in terms of price it's just 75%, and the difficulty increase is responsible for the loss difference.

We are only 14-15 months away from the next halving, all miners are in a race against time, and some spectacular events need to happen to save the day, if we don't go above 50k before the halving, man, many if not most of those large players will be liquidated, assuming they manage to survive till then in the first place.

Big arctic freeze in Texas Dec 22-26.
https://twitter.com/altair_tech/status/1605047657289990146
ERCOT is expected to see a sharp spike in electricity demand which might mean the miners have to curtail use?
I'll take the difficulty drop.

If you are generating work then:
The difficulty changes when the block before is found
i.e. everyone working to find block 768096 knew the new value once 768095 fouind,
coz that's what the block they are looking for, 768096, has to be.

Well all the hydros want big orders 188 units or more.

They also expect that you buy the cooling tower.

So they all involve 200000 usd or more.

And the cooling tower is not for sale.

now I have found a few cooling containers' on other websites.

https://www.viperatech.com/product/bitmain-antbox-h3-v2-liquid-cooling-container/

115000 or free if you buy 195 miners at  4200 euro.


but they are will to sell you a loose unit for 7800 euro .  this means you need to figure out how to cool it.

Right now the Best Buy if you are in USA is a s19 pro for about 2000 there are a few good resellers.

Hmm, let's ignore the firmware upgrade that makes it 29 per TH for the standard pro model that was on sale (currently sold out), so for $4214 extra you get 34 extra TH and 100 fewer watts, simplifying stuff, let's make it 40 extra th for the same power draw.

To match the pro, each of that TH would need to make ~100$ at free power, viabtc shows ≈ $ 0.0576, so if this keeps up you need 2000 days for the XP to catch the pro for on-sale versions, firmware upgrade it might be less or let's see actual numbers, it might be more.
With dirt-cheap power, the xp makes little sense, ROI with free is 800 days vs 390, with expensive 8-10 cents energy mining itself doesn't make sense.

So, beats me why would anyone pay that much when for example at the same efficiency but double the hash the 250 hydro sells for 9000 vs 6000.

Why pay 46/t to get 21.5 watts

you can pay 20/t to get 25.5 watts.
I just got a new s19 pro for 2 k and in 2 days new firmware should drop power from 2950 to 2550 watts.

This reminds me when Bitmain issued s9 firmware to drop efficiency from 100 watts/th to 80 watts/th.

A strong difference in price between the s19 pro and the s19 xp  is a bit wierd.

I finally managed to hit the time before the fits block,I was always missing it by 1 or 2 even when setting a reminder to check it, but I failed to get the results before the block to see the spread between he last-minute estimations and the actual difficulty.
And after a quick refresh:



So only 3.2 not that bad, compared to what could have happened but for once I was nearly sure it won't be that damn 7% to bring us to an ATH.
But if we hoped that some will go out of business due to losses, as always, there is somebody eager to throw millions at some mining farm that is barely staying alive, so if you already have thrown 40 million down the drain in this business why not immediately throw another $40 million and have another $32 ready in case it still keeps losing money, they've lost $2.1 million with Celsius but they need $72 overall just to stay afloat, something fishy is happening there.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/creditor-offers-bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-72m-to-avoid-bankruptcy

And speaking of Bitmain and its firmware, what's up with all the versions of the xp?
November batch (sold out)> 141T 3031.5W 21.5J/T
December spot (ready to ship) >134T 2881W 21.5J/T
January 2023 pre-orders>140T 3010W 21.5J/T
Funny how they played with the numbers but always managed to keep the pricing at $46/T.

some time  on monday

and I guess + 2.7 to 3.4%