Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 5. (Read 9891 times)

yeah

1 to 2016 {time gap} 1 to 2016 {time gap} 1 to 2016

corrected your typo


We have flattened quite a bit.

so 141th s19xp makes a big 141 x 0.0569 = 8.0229 a day.

burns $1.50 with 2 cent power net 6.52
burns $2.25 with 3 cent power net 5.77


 so a 5000 usd xp is :
766 days at 2 cent
866 days at 3 cent



now you can get 100th s19pro for around 2000

it earns 100 x 0.0569 or $5.69

burns 1.50 at 2 cents or 4.19 under 500 days
burns 2.25 at 3 cents or 3.44 under 600 days

My recollection is that the first block of a new epoch is "special" in that the time it takes to complete doesn't cunt against the 14 day time period? I am sure there is someone else on here that really provide the accurate details and explain it, but I am pretty sure there is this "wrinkle" that happens at an epoch switch event.

Right on time, I was never able to catch the webpage at the last block if any epoch.


Seems like it's still doing some calculations, I checked a few other websites and difficulty doesn't seem to have registered yet, I guess it was a tiny increase, knowing that some of those large companies keep adding on more gears, it seems like other players have dropped out already, we need to be patient till we get to the point where the new players can't maintain the stupidity of buying 3 years ROI gears, I think we are not too far.

almost there.

still near 0%  and about 17 hours to go

Yes we are turning a profit monthly.  but last year we had quite a few $30,000 a month profits

and this year we had maybe 2 in the years beginning.

Our monthly profits are well under $10,000 since ETH went to pos.

It will be fun to watch this unwind I can see the diff dropping 50% as profits drop.  or not.

Remember we saw the diff drop 50% in spring of 2021 from over 30 to under 16

so why not see it drop from over 37 to under 20.

btc at 8-9k is possible or not.

I think the key is if 1 or 2 other exchanges fail in next 2-3 months.

While the numbers shown there look good, these companies always hide the important figures, they tell you they made $20M in Q3 of 2022 but they don't tell you about the fact that they bought an S19  for 10k and it still a few years away from ROI and chances are, it will never get there, I mean, of course, anyone who owns a mining gear is generating income  in fact, actually generating net profit when you ignore the cost of mining gears, building, infrastructure, and debt owed to others.

But all these companies try to do is show you the good news so they can sell their shares at higher prices on the stock market, they can fake these numbers for years, but when shit hits the fan, they will fall in a single day just like FTX did.



     

The pace right now is 100.56% at block 1228.

we will soon know exactly how bad it is going to be.

I see at least one maybe two more exchanges failing.

And i see eth failing in 2023 or 2024.

The drop is still not here, the diff is just swinging because we have quite some messed up block times going up and down 9.7, 10.7, 8.6, 11.3 but overall nothing that would indicate something major switching off, probably will only do it at the end of the period, if at all.
Profitability is down the drain following the price, I'm looking at some graphs and I see barely 5 cents per th, and then there is bitmain selling you some gear that will ROI in 3 years with free electricity.

This will be one hell of a purge, I just hope that mining companies going down won't have the same effect as the failure of the other and won't push prices down even more, even if it's temporary.
I'm looking at some press releases
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hut-8-reports-operating-and-financial-results-for-q3-2022-301674163.html
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/11/08/2551429/0/en/Marathon-Digital-Holdings-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Results.html
Love the optimism and I wonder what backs it as those numbers sure don't, also, quite an interesting view on 2023 from one of them:



Just for future reference:
                   

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do you want to see something really really fucked up.

2 L3+ can do 1500 watts and 1gh

1gh earns 0.0132 ltc and 26.4 doge.  a day and burns 36kwatts

that is about 79 cents in ltc and 2.37 in doge or  3.16 usd. 

so buy 4 L3+ for about 1000 usd you get 6.32 usd and burn 3000 watts


or buy a s19 direct from bitmain

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=000202208221156311546vFPf4kv06AA

95th for $3250 plus trump tax close to 5k for a USA buyer

earns $5.60 usd and burns 3250 watts


that is fucked up.

we are taking a beating here and look at the diff



that is fucking amazingly bad info.

So lets look at the diff today


we backed off from plus 11.84 to plus 1.84 blocks




so the crash has dropped us from 103% to 100.2%

we are drifting lower in price under 17k and earnings are 5.89 cents on viabtc

so $8.30 a day with a  141 s19 xp

8.25 power cost 11 cents
7.50 power cost 10 cents
6.75 power cost   9 cents
6.00 power cost   8 cents

so the s19 xp is not underwater at 8 cents I think more pain may be on its way.

Phil, I've added two merits because I realized that just after a few hours this was way off when the price slumped and if it doesn't recover more, back to the drawing board.


We had 124 blocks in the last 24h according to blockchair as I type, so a serious drop but I wonder if it's not just something from the previous spike, Nov 8th managed to get an average of 8.8 minutes per block, as I don't think that miners would be that responsive in such short interval.
But I do hope for a serious drop in two weeks' time, things can't go on like this. Can't!  I protest!

As for the previous 2018 comparison, I'm not really familiar on how things were going back then but if hashrate, cost pe th / profit and so on might keep the proportion, I'm not sure about how entrenched a lot of the hashrate is, and by this, I mean companies that do mine at a loss because they are either not losing their money or they are simply losing money paid in advance so their current operations are still in profit.I think we have a higher proportion of these in the hashrate, and unlike previously the ones that have cheap energy won't be able to oust them.

Anyhow, I've learned the hard way that history has a habit of not repeating itself exactly when you need it more, so, full polar/kodiak/panda/koala bear mode right now.

Pace was 104% two days ago, we are not getting close to 100%, seems like the price drop has finally started affecting difficulty, hopefully we get a small drop this epoch and a largee one on the next if BTC price stays below 18k.

we are really really close to nov 2018.

best gear was an s9 with stealth asic boost. ie bitmain had it for themselves not us.

and it was a breakeven unit for us at 6 cent power and break even for them at 7 cents.

but they had flooded market with cheap prices. buying an s9 cheap in nov 2018 was easy peasy.

buying a s19 pro xp is not cheap.

and an xp turns some profit at six cents.

so I think we need to be in the spot that all xp breaks even at 6 cents. we are close. but not yet.

so we may be more like sept/oct 2018 not nov 2018.

I have been trying to avoid thinking about this, but what the market feels like today seems like it's 2018 all over again.

We had the 6k level which we did not break until 11-11-2018 , the 18-19k level of this year broke on 8-11-2022 (pretty close), so if this would repeat what do we expect in terms of difficulty?

At the 6k break, BTC diff was at 7.18T.

Next epoch > 6.6t

then 5.6t

then 5.1t on 19-12-2018 which marked the bottom of the difficulty correction with a total drop of nearly 29% vs 50% drop in price, so with a ratio of nearly 1:2, so for every 10% drop in price, we would expect 5% in difficulty so 10k BTC should result in a 25% difficulty drop, 15k would result in 12.5% difficulty drop, it would be great to watch this unfold before our eyes, I love it when history repeats itself.

up does not work.

the room is a long narrow space

one long wall has this. the inside has multiple breaker boxes.

the other long wall has multiple breaker boxes. height does not work.

please note door on far left is outside of the room. the room ends about 3-6 inches short of that door.







no cuts for it are possible.


this works for up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hocYGr8yJ1U

we can do 3 of these 3 tubs each total of 9 tubs which can do 72 s19's or 72 x 3= 216 kwatts which maxes the 300kva transformer





radiator and fan can go outside. we will pull a 24 inch air cooling fan and feed all tubes/hose out to wall on right of photos.

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back on topic.

1 th pays 6.1 cents

or a s19 xp 141 earns $8.60 a day and burns 75 kwatts along with needing more fan cooling.

so lets say all non power overhead on it is $1.10 . it is earning only $7.50 A DAY not counting the power.

6400 - 30% = 4480

10 cent power = 7.50 so break even

09 cents  $6.75 + $0.75 paid off in 5973 days
08 cents  $6.00 + $1.50 "       "      2986 days
07 cents  $5.25 + $2.25 "       "      1991 days
06 cents  $4.50 + $3.00 "       "      1493 days
05 cents  $3.75 + $3.75 "       "      1194 days
04 cents  $3.00 + $4.50 "       "        995 days
03 cents  $2.25 + $5.25 "       "        853 days
02 cents  $1.50 + $6.00 "       "        746 days  2 years with 2 cent power not good.


and the diff is rising!




we are nearing the breaking point for miners. Most miners do not have 141 or 134 th 21.5 watt xp's

they are likely to have 30-40 watt gear

so 141 th at 30 watts burns 102 kwatts

10 cent $10.19
 9 cent $  9.09
 8 cent $  8.08
 
 7 cent  $7.07 only 53 cents a day profit
 6 cent  $6.06
 5 cent  $5.05
 4 cent  $4.04
 3 cent  $3.03
 2 cent  $2.02

so if you are all s19 pro and have 7 cent power you are in serious trouble

and if you are s17 or Avalon you could be close to 40 cent a th

10 cent $13.50
 9.   "    $12.15
 8    "    $10.80
 7    "    $  9.45
 6    "    $  8.10

 5    "    $  6.75      about 75 cent profit
 4   "     $  5.40
 3   "     $  4.05
 2  "      $  2.70

Since I toyed with the idea of filters I totally agree with this, if the air you're pulling in is dirty and far worse even a bit humid (I don't know if dew affects it but we get a lot of it) those filters will drop the flow radically. My first try was to put them in the window before the axial fan and the steel protection grills and it was a complete failure, if put in the space behind it it does reduce the airflow considerably less but in both cases, it's a pain in the ass to dismantle and clean. But unlike Phill, I have way less gear, and a way colder and bigger building so I don't care that much about a drop.

Probably once you've got more and more gear and you're constantly expanding you have to look for professional solutions, where the air is filtered from multiple sources outside, so there is enough flow at the point it is blown into the room.


Lol at the second link, poultry farm, mine is the original pig farm, oink!, axial one, but nowhere that size they were supposed to work in 6 pairs if I remember correctly.


What about up? Have the intakes on wall level and the outflow through the roof?

Is anyone interested in the price, diff?
17k, pace at 103%, viabtc showing 5.9 cents per th/s...
Anybody? 

Phill, Scott said he used to distibute their products but not anymore, i asked him if they were legit he said yes.

He can still help out in sourcing and instaltion, hit me up on telegram if you still use it.

The air filter idea makes sense. we clean them monthly. the gear still gets dirty and needs cleaning every 2-3 months.

but even if our 19000 cfm in drops to 16000 cfm in both  16000 and 19000 are not enough air going in during the 2 summer months.

the rooms shape and lack of wall area to add more fans is a real issue for us.

we have a 300kva transformer doing only 95kwatts basically due to the heat issues we have.

the ware house is now used as a warehouse since warehouse storage space became very valuable. So adding a second room would cost interns of people not paying rent for the warehouse space.

see if Scott has some guys that would help us set this up. we can then use say 200 of the 300 kva transformer

air cooled mining farms probably make up more than 90% of the total mining industry, we manage to maintain acceptable temps even around June-July when temps go as high as 40c+, it's all about moving enough air, I have also come to realize that using air filters is a terrible idea and requires a lot of maintenance, so we just run filter-free, in fact, most of the dust that would accumulate on the filter won't be stuck on the miner, it will just enter and exit.

Using filters on your intake simply means the airflow will start to go down from minute one, if your intake fans move 10k m3/h without filters, with clean filters they won't do 10k, the filters themselves will reduce that amount, so maybe 8k m3/h with filters being brand new, the next day, some of those wholes will be blocked and now the 8k is 7k, so to maintain good flow you will have to clean the filters very often, in my case, i'd have to probably clean them every week at best.

Using air filters would be a good idea if you have at least double the amount of airflow, so even with filters half clothed, your miners still run clean with enough airflow, aside from that, using filters is just a pain in the ass, just run them without filters and then every couple months, shut down, do a bit of dusting and move on, dust isn't really a bad thing even if it was to reside in the miner as long as the temps are fine, humidity is miner's worst enemy.


That seems like a good plan, water-cooled pre-built containers like the 19XP container sounds like a better idea than immersion cooling.

Phill: remember to buy special power cables and ethernet cables, the normal ones will harden and crack and you will be changing them regularly.

Oh regarding cryptocooling.eu, i think scott works with those guys, i sent him a message on telegram, will let you know later.