Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 3. (Read 9687 times)

Riot makes sense, Slush luck for the past month or 250 blocks was 80%, on the probablitiy scale that's very unusual, folks on telegram are talking about a possible bug/attack on slush that caused them to lose nearly 50 blocks.

Of course, a lot of digging needs to be done before reaching to any conclusion, but I don't think they will recover easily from that bad month soon.

So if 20% of Slush's 14EH was not finding blocks for other reasons other than luck, most of it will now start to find blocks.

This is fun watching it unfold:

So one of the biggest players or losers here is NyDig, which got 1 billion from investors, made zero progress on its banking plan, lost millions, is scraping 30% of the employees, and the new CEO pours another $720m of not his money into mining.
And Iris energy (never heard of them before) is calming investors:


Neverrrrrr! 
PS
Pace is 103.6992%, hope it's just a dead cat bounce or riot is getting lucky!

More on the loans used to buy crypto gear this year and the aftermath of those decisions
https://www.pcgamer.com/crypto-lenders-are-suffering-as-bitcoin-miners-are-unable-to-pay-back-gigantic-loans/
Per the article: Gee, ya think?

yeah things are getting tighter. early but time will tell if we drop to 29.9t

viabtc pays 6.43 cents

so 100 th = $6.43 burns 75kwatts or $4.50 at six cents that is 1.43 profit for a fully paid off mine with no help costs. but lets be realistic big mines have costs even if fully paid off

insurance
building maintenance
help
property tax if you own the property
rent if you rent the property.

so at six cents I am guessing all big mines are at death's door.

We are small but the space is multi use and ware house space makes good money now due to supply chain issues.

Think if you have a Walmart sized building. The overhead must be nuts.

Now lets say you are all containers. it cost a lot to make a container. so Loans are involved.

I see hashrate dropping under 30t maybe on dec 18th

surely by Jan 2 29t looks to be all good.


all this depends on a stable 17k price. 

if we go over 20k rate picks up.
if we tank to 13k rate drops.

They own 7.7EH + whatever else on slush and they can not handle the variance, running thier own pool will only make it worse, all these large players will end up being in a very large pool to reduce variance effects.

@stompix, you got it right this time, let's stop here

Something really really bad is going to happen, the signs are all there:



Hmm, Riot claims 7.7 exa, which would be enough for 3% of the hashrate, Brains for 3 months has an average of 4.6%, 4.4% for the last month, and ow that Riot has left they have 7.2% in the last 24 hours, this looks like they've kicked the Binbogami out of their house.

But, this is interesting, Riot wasn't using Foundry, is there a list with the largest ones that are using them?


Well, why is none of the top US miners running their own pool, other than DCG, Seems weird, if SBI is doing so for 1Exa why is none trying the same?
Is this another US thing that has to do with accounting and tax tricks?

It would seem these big guys pay their electricty bill once per hour,
and aren't even making 12% profit vs their costs, so they can't handle 12% variance in a month.

Amazing how badly managed these mining businesses are

Why on Gods little green earth would an operation like Riot pushing 7.7 exahash even use a pool???
They are more than big enough to go solo. Hell, if they have no capable coders themselves, just hire someone like Kano or even -ck to setup it up for them 

That's likely the case, judging by gear prices, especially the used ones, it seems like a lot of selling is going on, it seems like we are in the process (not sure if it's the start of the end) of miners capitulation, who would have thought the S19j pro would be going for 15$ in the U.S, it seems like many med sized miners are being forced to leave the game.

I also read some interesting article about Riot, it seems like they had a bad month due to luck variance on the pool they used, despite adding 12% more hashrate, the only made 2% more BTC, and now they are going to switch to a PPS pool.

When large players like Riot can't handle payout variance like that, it gives you a clear indication that the game is becoming harder for everyone.

Well lets hope for slow steady side ways movements.

[2022-12-06 01:47:46.071+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=766080 delta=-7.32% new=34244331613176.2 prev=36950494067222.4
So the target is now down a little to 34.2T

dropped to 161 off pace pretty good.

looks like 33.6-33.9t a nice diff drop price is around 16.9K

[/quote]




16 more blocks and we are in with say -7.3%


so if we are at a diff of 34.2 and a price of 16.9k a s19 at 6 cent power is okay gear.

https://news.bitcoin.com/russia-to-supply-electricity-to-kazakhstans-cryptocurrency-miners/

Thankfully the sanctions actually increased Russia's bottom line otherwise they could have an energy surplus at a cost that nobody could touch.

Will be interesting to see if Russia will really gain a lot of hashrate in the next month. What you also have to consider is that Russia can not use many of the resources that they are now not able to sell. For example the gas has only pipelines that point to Europe. Now the pipelines point to nothing and can not be easily converted into electricity in Russia. So prices will basically go up everywhere and nobody will win on this.

126 blocks about 10% price at low 16k

and around 6-7 days to go.

a 33.3 diff followed by another 10 % drops gets us under 30t diff.

could happen

Well, my first prediction was bearish for the drop or bullish for the total hash rate, or whatever this is perceived so, me being completely wrong on this one would be good for miners.
And as it turns out, from the 7.5% pace is   89.3824% so it just needs another 4% push to enter my usual 200% prediction territory.


I wouldn't bet that much on the electricity increase, Europe and North East Asia which is the most affected had basically zero mining, Russia now has a ton of extra, and the US and Canada are not really that affected after a spike caused by panic and high demand during summer things are looking at around 1 cent per kWh increase in most areas where heavy mining is happening compared to 2021.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a
In my opinion, their main problem would be paying for anything as most of them were running on credit, not income, 1 cent will be irrelevant when you don't have the other 4 in the first place, so we might see more bankruptcies because of the credit line rather than the small increase in costs. If they ae pushed out of the game by this a quick jump to 20k would solve their problems.


Hmm, nothing spectacular apart from unknown gaining 3%, nothing threatening Foundry yet.

My biggest concern was the New York Ban on carbon based fuel for mining.

We are really well postioned we all the solar we built if "green" mining gets enforced here in New Jersey

Down 118 blocks only 45% in means a possible 10-14% diff drop.

Price is dropping a bit about 16k even.

I thought the chicken and egg thing was solved a while ago no. 

My thought on this subject (the hashrate vs price not the egg vs chicken) is actually a bit different from yours, the China ban was something else, if the U.S today bans bitcoin mining then that would have a direct impact on the price for sure, but the natural hashrate drop that happens due to lower profitability is different, in fact, if anything, traders use it the exact opposite, there is a very common TA indicator called the hash-ribbons, which looks for miners capitulation as the usually marks the bottom of a bear market.

That theory does make a lot of sense because miners are essentially just bitcoin traders, they don't go on an exchange and place daily bets, but they do bet on BTC the moment they put $ into gears, when they get liquidated (just like when the FOMO guys get liquidated on their long positions) it's usually the "blood in the streets" that the smart money is looking for, so far the difficulty numbers look good.


If we get an 8-10% drop, followed by another similar drop that could actually trigger miners' capitulation and therefore a market bottom without the need to actually make lower lows on the price, which I think is likely, I think are about to have a good rally in the coming a few weeks, we will likely break 20k, maybe even 25k, I don't those numbers will be sustained, we will likely head back lower afterward.

Well we are now down 97 blocks


An interesting phenomenon about hashrate dropping a lot is that it will occasionally put downward preset on price.

Remember when China kicked out a shit ton of miners hash rate dropped a ton but price also dropped and we had the rare reverse trend of price falling and following falling hash rate.

I know its a bit of the chicken or the egg.

My guess is we go under 15k and have 2 strong hash rate drops maybe 36.9 to 32.9t and then 32.9 to 28.0t

so on Dec 21 hash rate of 28.0t and price of 14.9k my guess lets see how it ages.

Meanwhile LTC/Doge doing well it has been the best mining algo for profits from Oct 2020 to Nov 2022

and where is ETH oh I know frozen in  Pile Of Shit

Way to go Mr V.B. 

Ya that makes sense, but it's not like they would turn off the old gears and go to enjoy the holiday before plugging in the new ones, besides, current pace suggests 10% drop in hashrate which is massive, so maybe your theory is valid in terms of why this epoch is not having a positive pace, but as far as the current drop, it's more likely that someone had to turn off their gears without having a replacement, but who knows, let's wait and see.