Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 7. (Read 9920 times)

now you see the light 

How so does the landing works exactly? you lend me x amount of money using my mining gears as collateral? and then if difficulty goes up or bitcoin prices go down (or both which is even worse) I get a margin call and pass you all my miners? if it's not my miners that you want to accept as collateral then what else do I have to offer you? I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

There is simply no end to these VC style investments, they seem totally focused on running this business into the ground or at least 3-4 cents per Th/s above grass level.
 

If is the reverso epoch of the previous one, and again it will start with a ridiculously changed pace and despite everything it will keep it up like this through two weeks, ending with an even bigger than -10% drop and almost erasing all the last gains I'm going to join philip and shout manipulation too!

I can understand that at the start of the month suddenly a few thousand or a few tens of thousands of gear get immediately turned on as it's a new month, deliveries, new electricity prices, no more demand for power on same levels in the US, but if this drop materializes, no, no way in hell you can explain it, I refuse from the start to even try it, unless there is one huge farm that caught fire or some other ban somewhere else, don't even know who is left on the possible ban list to make such a dent.


Just one and a half day and now, despite my track record of perfect loss I will say it loud and clear, this will not last!
So, ... expect a drop!

But if you want something else that makes also almost no sense, this just popped in my news feed:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/investors-are-flocking-to-bitcoin-mining
INVESTORS ARE CIRCLING BITCOIN MINERS  < the moment I read it I imagined that vulture from WB cartoons


There is simply no end to these VC style investments, they seem totally focused on running this business into the ground or at least 3-4 cents per Th/s above grass level.
 

Latest Block:   760253  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   91.0855%  (222 / 243.73 expected, 21.73 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.7854% and -1.9650%

While some mining teams are suffering the throes of a bear market, a growing cohort of investors see opportunity. Some of these investors are brand new to the mining industry. For example, Maple Finance — a decentralized finance team primarily focused on Ethereum and Solana, according to its website — launched a $300 million fully-collateralized lending pool targeting struggling bitcoin miners who need more capital. Peter Thiel also recently led a $3.7 million seed round for Block Green, a new lending protocol also targeting miners who need to access more capital.
Some of the investors accumulating funds to target the mining industry are substantially more experienced. Binance announced a $500 million fund to support distressed bitcoin mining teams. This monstrous crypto conglomerate currently operates the world’s fourth-largest bitcoin mining pool in addition to the world’s largest exchange platform. Jihan Wu, the bitcoin tycoon who co-founded Bitmain, also announced plans for a $250 million fund to buy distressed mining assets.
~
In total, over $1 billion from these public announcements alone is sitting on the sidelines waiting to lend to or invest in distressed mining operations.

So 3.6 to 3.8%

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator…

Latest Block:   760007  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   103.6707%  (1992 / 1921.47 expected, 70.53 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   31360548173144.85                            
Current Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36933148475874 and 36933342872076
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.7134% and +3.7139%
Previous Retarget:   October 10, 2022 at 6:50 AM  (+13.5528%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:56 PM  (in 0d 3h 51m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:56 PM  (in 0d 3h 51m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 12h 6m 11s and 13d 12h 6m 17s
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..

And please, don't mine at a loss, it's annoying when people say I mine at a 30% loss because I know BTC will be worth 10 times more in 4 years, come on! where is the logic?

at a price slightly below 8$/th, with shipping + accounting for difficulty spikes and a moderate failure rate, they should ROI in 6 months,

normally they would say everything is running well and smooth.

And thanks for the numbers, now I have all that's need to start from, all I need is to find the time and mood to think about what I need to do, and this is a pain in the ass, I don't feel like doing plans when I know the results won't be pleasing at all and mining at a loss is not something I'm going to do, ever!

I would take any news that comes with political sauce with a grain of salt.

That's good news, I think you will still get it earlier than what you initially thought despite the delay in customs because they shipped it out in less than a month contrary to the agreement.

Do you plan to run custom firmware on it or just stock settings? I think the upside of buying Bitmain over other brands is the ability to tune the miner, I see people report 24w/th on the S19 pro with underclock settings, 5w/th saving could make a huge difference in the price tanks at some point.



I would take any news that comes with political sauce with a grain of salt.

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

Heh, at least there are better odds of decent components (of all kinds) being used in it. It seems the Chinese have found a great market for grey-market chips & such...
https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/
Probably a boomin' business for the dumpster divers & counterfeiters that supply said parts to the resellers  

miner is released and should arrive on wednesday.

Well my package legit buy from bitmain with KYC is now held in customs since friday.
package was due yesterday.
so much for obeying rules.

It is, but can't say no to an old friend who so happens to be a fellow, optimistic miner.



Here are some randomly picked offers for today

Used

S19 95th $1800 > usa
S19 pro 21$/th > usa
S19 95t $1650 > China

New

S19 90th $1650 > hk
S19pro 100T  &1800 > hk





Hard to tell at which prices people are buying, judging by the verification process that goes on some of those groups where people report successful deals, there doesn't seem to be much of action even at these prices, also by looking at the last item listed you would have probably come to the same conclusion, some sellers are selling cheaper than Bitmain, so they bought those $1900 deals with a 30% discount which is $1,330 + the coupon value which is roughly 30% of face value so 1330+ 171 = $1501 and they want to make an easy $300 profit.

Mind you, some folks in the U.S would still get that deal knowing that the seller secured an easy $300 profit, you know why? because most of those Chinese resellers will declare the shipment at a ridiculously low price (like $200 per gear) and then trump tax becomes almost nothing, so, 1800+50$ tax + shipping vs $1501 + 475

1,976+ shipping for a direct bitmain purchase.
1,850+ shipping through those resellers.

In fact, one of the suppliers I used to deal with told me they can deliver mining gear to the U.S at almost zero tax, don't ask me how because I don't know, but I am pretty sure they have their ways, this explains why in most cases U.S small miners are better off buying from U.S resellers who deal with those Chinese to re-route the shipment and trick the law.