Topic: 2022 Diff thread. - page 8. (Read 9875 times)

It is, but can't say no to an old friend who so happens to be a fellow, optimistic miner.



Here are some randomly picked offers for today

Used

S19 95th $1800 > usa
S19 pro 21$/th > usa
S19 95t $1650 > China

New

S19 90th $1650 > hk
S19pro 100T  &1800 > hk





Hard to tell at which prices people are buying, judging by the verification process that goes on some of those groups where people report successful deals, there doesn't seem to be much of action even at these prices, also by looking at the last item listed you would have probably come to the same conclusion, some sellers are selling cheaper than Bitmain, so they bought those $1900 deals with a 30% discount which is $1,330 + the coupon value which is roughly 30% of face value so 1330+ 171 = $1501 and they want to make an easy $300 profit.

Mind you, some folks in the U.S would still get that deal knowing that the seller secured an easy $300 profit, you know why? because most of those Chinese resellers will declare the shipment at a ridiculously low price (like $200 per gear) and then trump tax becomes almost nothing, so, 1800+50$ tax + shipping vs $1501 + 475

1,976+ shipping for a direct bitmain purchase.
1,850+ shipping through those resellers.

In fact, one of the suppliers I used to deal with told me they can deliver mining gear to the U.S at almost zero tax, don't ask me how because I don't know, but I am pretty sure they have their ways, this explains why in most cases U.S small miners are better off buying from U.S resellers who deal with those Chinese to re-route the shipment and trick the law.

Wait till January, I know at last a person that will do his part in the difficulty drop 


If it's not that much of a bother, can you quote some prices for the s19s series, used ones?
Oh, and what I mean about prices is not the one people are asking for, if you have some information on the price at which gear is actually bought, not staying 6 months in a warehouse waiting, I need to do a little planning.


I can even settle for 2 candles of 2$ if the war ends in the next 10 days, but this is just wishful thinking, no way it will end before spring. The muddy then freezing season is here, the conflict will be frozen and no side will retreat as it knows the other won't be able to make significant gains over winter and early spring, so even without actually battles, it will still last at least till then.
And without really positive news from the economy, I don't see Bitcoin gaining traction either, people are acting fearfully, and I don't see any bull run happening in these conditions.


Half gone 4.2% up,  hope of only 1-2% is fading away!

oh please a China_Taiwan_USA war game is not needed, but could happen.


Back to mining
Speaking of China my s19pro 100t has been stuck in customs since Friday.

and I can't contact them to provide the info they want. I contacted fedex and they promised to send me an email so I could provide the info.

So on Friday they said I should get email by the afternoon.

Well here we are Monday no email and miner is still held up by customs.

It's more like NATO vs Russia now, which unfortunately could very well last for a couple of years, I think the market will adapt and overcome before that war ends, hopefully sometime next year then U.S inflation starts to come down and the fed starts injecting money in the markets, of course, this whole thing change, if China decides to take Taiwan and the U.S, decides to intervene, that would bring us back to square zero and we would need to wait for another year, two or a couple of years.

The current pace is 104% gear prices have dropped massively this week in HK and China.

We need for this to happen and likely it will happen in the next 30-60 days.

The only way it does not happen is the Russian vs Ukraine conflict ends in the next 10 days. As I think that would spark a huge rally world wide.

The entire issue of lack of profits vanishes with 2x 10000 dollar candles.

Much like the rally last fall.

I think it did happen close to the button of the 2018 bear market, where the most efficient gears at 6 cents were barely making any profit for like a month in Nov 2018, that's when miners really capitulated and almost 6 months' worth of hashrate was wiped out in a month, so whenever we get to that stage, I would expect a 20-30% drop in difficulty to happen, probably coupled with a drop in price as well (like what happened in 2019 we fell from 6k to 3k) so maybe now we fall to 13-14k right around the difficulty drop and then we start to recover slowly.

100th makes $6.88 usd

burns 72 kwatt = $4.32 usd at six cents

profit is $2.56

but a 6% diff drops profit a lot

as 94% of 6.88 = $6.39

just a bit lower say 18k price and two 10% jumps

and we are in the hole. for six cent mining.

btw this almost never happens.

by nov 7-9 we will know just how bad we are.

Miners who use 30w/th or less and have a power rate of 6 cents and below are still way above water even at current prices, we still have our ways to go, either more difficulty increase (20-30% increase) or a similar negative percentage in price, when people who pay 6 cents and mine with S19s are no longer profitable, we would start to have some nice difficulty drops, we are not there yet.

well 4.9% still sucks unless we get over 22k and stay there

Yeah, usually it makes no sense to put any faith in this, and the 20% up was clearly bs, but the previous difficulty went the opposite way:


4 days into it also was at a ridiculous 10%, and... we ended up with 13%, so, sometimes the worse fear to come true and so do estimators even 1/4 down the way.
But this time it will definitely cool down the growth, not even dare to hope to go negative but still a 1% might be nice.


Don't you hate it when they put the essential stuff in the middle of the article?


Yup, couldn't agree more, and every so-called analyst that will sell those big farmers guys a business plan right now needs to be hanged!

One interesting thing,  did Bitmain just raise up the prices for the S19hydro, yeah 150$ but it's still up?
Old offer:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3
$3,792 Shipping Date: 1-30,Nov. 2022
Current one:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220809200603918vTN9svY706BE
$3,950 Shipping Date: 1-30,Dec. 2022

It's already down to 3.5% ...

As usual, taking notice of it early on is pointless.

Heck even now at 3.5%, only 740 blocks into the diff change, it's still far from reliable.

well should be fun.

the fed's war on inflation may be doing nothing to stop inflation but it sure as fuck is hurting crypto.

those 9.62% I bonds are a killer

Heh, along the lines of miners going online,  came across an interesting tidbit about tons of them sitting around

That 121% was scary to say the least, we did settle down at 113% for a while but now luckily we dropped


This can't be pure luck, it seems like some large players were forced to shut down or maybe downclock their miners!

Current hashrate is about 260EH, 10% is 26EH or 26,000,000/140th (S19 xp) = 1,857,142 s19 xp at roughly 600MW worth of power, logically speaking we should not see a 10% increase anymore, in fact, if this epoch ends up + then from there own, we should not see even 5% increase moving forward.

so a 30 watt miner you use 1.3 which ballparks to this

5 cent = 6.5 a kwatt to breakeven
6 cent = 7.8 a kwatt to breakeven
7 cent = 9.1 a kwatt to breakeven


we are in the 8 to 9 cent range for a s19

if i was not lazy I would do

20 watt ratio
30 watt ratio 1.3
35 watt ratio
40 watt ratio
45 watt ratio
50 watt ratio
60 watt ratio I think it is .65

so

5 cent earning. is 3.25 cents
6 cent earning is 3.90 cents
7 cent earning  is 4.55 cents

so a t15 on low is about 60 watts a th and needs around 4 cent power to breakeven

Last time I said to myself the diff from the first few days can't go on like that, been proven wrong, but no way in hell is this garbage going to stay the same at the end of these two weeks, how would it even be possible!!!


I didn't even bother to look in debts at the earnings, just went to the viabtc panel and saw a quoted $ 0.0649 and I didn't feel the need to see how accurate that was at all. Another 20% just lol, another 10% and we're below 6cents per twh, I use simpler and far less accurate methods to see how bad things are but I usually go for:
- 100th~ 75kwh a day, 1.3 ratio means at 6 cents earnings 8 cents kWh is breakeven.
F*&&^ this!
And the price just touched 18957 two hours ago.
Nice start to the week/period!

Well in  Oct 2018 hash started to tail off best gear was s9 and if you had the 82 watt firmware It needed 7-8 power

but if you had the 95-100 watt firmware it was in the 6-7 cent power range.


So if a 29 watt machine like the one due me makes

6.88 a day and burns

3 x 24 = 72 kwatts it loses at 10 cent power
it makes a few cents at  9 cent power

I would argue most the gear is in trouble.

2 s17 pros

doing 100th burning 3.3 = 80 kwatts

that is

$8.00  at 10 cents = loser
$7.20 at    9 cents = loser
$6.40 at    8 cents = loser/break even

So basically almost everyone over 6 or 7 cent power = real trouble

And if we jump 10-13 percent again

7  cent  power = under water for all but the 141th xp at 21 watts

That hurts!

This epoch doesn't seem to be slowing down either, 70 blocks in and things look pretty terrible


We should start to get a clear view of the situation in 2-3 days, another 10-13% jump would be so brutal, someone with S19 pro and 10 cents per KwH is hardly making 1$ a day now! can you imagine?


Maybe it's good you didn't buy more of that S19 pro, I have been wanting to stack gears but these jumps make me postpone, hopping for gear prices to drop even further, I know I won't get anywhere trying to time the exact bottom, but I am always tempted.

jumps was 13.55%


Latest Block:   758032  (14 minutes ago)



and we are at an all time high for avg hash rate  over 250eh

Yeah 1950 vs 1900

no coupon given and since my miner ordered 17 days ago is yet to be shipped out the coupon due was not issued.

So it is a pass for me.