Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 4. (Read 7712 times)

Generally, it's a bad thing for BTC, when only a few large entities can afford to mine BTC then

1- Censorship can be more effective:

Since they mine most of the blocks, if they blacklist your address and you want to make a transaction, it could be stuck for days, eventually, even stuck for months depending on the percentage they own

2- Regulation will be easily imposed, large firms can't just ignore the authorities, if the government tells them to do this or that with BTC, they will have to do it.


When people talk about mining pool centralization, I have always said that pool decentralization is far less dangerous than the centralization of hash power ownership, just take a scenario where 80% of the hash rate is owned by 3 U.S firms, they can do anything they want, besides, all it takes to damage the network would be some stupid regulation from the U.S administration.

Do you guys think that's a good thing for Bitcoin?
What hazards can this bring the medio term to the network?

yeah if you study gold mining they lowered profits bigly for mining.

a “small” guy is not going to be under 5 cents.

by small a 1.2 megawatt container.

if you load it with t21s and set t21 and set 160 th. they pull 2.5 kwatts

you can run 300 units. burning 750 kwatts.

cost is  300 x 3000 = 900,000

the container and the transformer push 200,000

so 1.1 million.

and you could crank it up 🆙 if mining gets hot.

but right now that 1.1 million setup makes about 1000 a day profit.

after power.  so you laid out 1.1 million to make 365000 in year one.

if the big miners grind the 4 cent a th number down to 3 cent a th number that 365k drops to.
182k.

so  here is how it works.
160 x 4 = 6.40 earned against 60 kwatts x 5 cent or 3 bucks is 3.40profit x 300 = 1020 a day
but 160 x 3 = 4.80 earned against 60 x 5 or 1.80 x 300 = 540 a day

huge difference if they can for e profits lower.

how would you like to lay out 1.1 million and make back only 185k you would be close to 900k in the hole.

this is becasue your 1 container  with five cent power is going up against 200 container miner with 2-3 cent contract.

they know if they drop your earnings on 1.1 million under 200k you will never clear the investment nut.

it is done for miners unless you are tiny and do not look at the money spent as a profit thing.

you can small mine to a blind address and just leave the money alone. you earnings will be anonymous to a certain degree.

"Big contracts" is not a very accurate statement, it's more like "HUGE contracts" like hundreds of MWs worth of power, we talking the billions level of money, not just millions, as Phill said, it's Mara, and the big boys trying to kill every last bit of competition from the lower-tier folks, in fact, given that those big guys have other expenses which are usually higher than the lower-tier folks, they are also in deep shit to some extent, it's now a matter of who has the longer breath, who would chicken out first.

And then you got the folks that you don't often hear about, huge farms are being built in places like Oman with power rates below 4 cents, the last article I read talked about $350M just for constructing the site, you now have crazy Arab money added to the already crazy U.S money, to an industry that is impossible to predict, it's basically a shit-show and things will only get worse for small miners, and when I say small -- that includes the 1-5MW folks, the game has been upped to 50MW and above, you can no longer flex your 1MW farm, it's game over.

And you think it’s still possible to find energy under 4 cents? Does it have to be very big contracts, for that to be possible, or not?

price earned per th is now under 4 cents it is 0.0399 usd a th according to viabtc


and according to newhedge below with the diff it is worse:

Latest Block:   860034  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   104.0725%  (1219 / 1171.30 expected, 47.7 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                            
Current Difficulty:   89471664776970.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 92648282294012 and 93261656826248
Next Difficulty Change:   between +3.5504% and +4.2360%
Previous Retarget:   August 28, 2024 at 10:13 AM  (+2.9931%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 9:04 PM  (in 5d 7h 38m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 11:07 PM  (in 5d 9h 41m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 10h 51m 6s and 13d 12h 54m 24s

the long hard grind marches on

but as bad as it is we are not there yet.

4.09 cents for a th of hash is absolutely brutal number.

6 cent miners with top of the line gear were always good since 2012  ( my start in the game)

so what does a s21pro doing 230th earn 230 x 4.09 cents = $9.40 a day
and what does a s21pro doing that burn  90 x 6 cents =       $5.40 a day
that is a 4 dollar profit per miner

this means the grind can carry on.

as a six cent guy that has all s21pros is still ahead.

My gut is marathon with its 2-3 cent numbers which likely net out to 4 cents will expand as it seeks to force out everyone with 6 cent and above power cost.

Still upwards back getting close to 90t again


large mining is killing the 300kwatt to  1 meg  guy.

Like I said 1 megawatt can get you  running 250 t21s or 250 s21s

5 cent power  at 3.5 kwatts  a day is 84 kwatts or $4.20  post cost and 200th is  $8.30 earned a gain of $4.10

Not counting down time
Not counting  the big fans on the container
Not count gear breaking
Not counting rent on the space
Not counting labor

a full container earns 250 x 4.20 or 1050 a day. 

filling that container with 250 s21's cost about 1 million and the box along with the transformer is 150,000

so 1,150,000 out of pocket to maybe keep earning 1000 a day.

Margins are very tight.

If we get the classic sept dip to say 49k or better 45k one of these big boys will fail.

What game of chicken.  I am glad I am out with some profit.

no, basically it is big big big miners with low rates

a t21 set to 160th makes about $7.60 a day it burns 75kwatts

so
10 cents it burns $7.50 a day or a 10 cent profit
  9 cents it burns $6.75 a day of a  85 cent profit
  8 cents it burns $6.00 A DAY or a $1.60 profit
  7 cents it burns $5.25 a day or a $2.35 profit

  6 cents it burns $4.50 a day or a $3.10 profit
  5 cents it burns $3.75 a day or a $3.85 profit
  4 cents it  burns  $3.00 a day or a $4.60 profit


so you are watching 4-6 cent miners growing and 7-10 cent miners quitting.

If you can get a rate of 4.5 cents a transformer and a container are under 100k

that is for about 1 megawatt or 270 t21's.

So 100k + 810k = 910k upfront to have 44,550 th which is 4 bucks a unit profit x 270 = 1080 a day

many people will risk the 910k to earn the 1080 a day. 
but you need deep pockets as you could lose.

I do not have 910k to lay out in hopes of a profit.

It's really starting to get difficult to understand. At this moment the hash should be going down and not going up.
There have to be people mining in the negative or having a lot of free energy.

plus 3% and 89.47 diff

so considering that price is not very good hash is freaking huge.

The way I see it is that the NFT hype is done with, to inscribe an image on the blockchain and hope that people would pay a lot of money for it is probably not going to work again, there should be new things, and most will be a replica of what ETH, I watched a short video of Trump saying good stuff about crypto if he wins, anyone knows what those are (assuming we'd believe he would stick to his words anyway).

I think what could drive BTC transaction fees to something extraordinary for a sustainable period of time would be if large institution settle their final payments on the blockchain, to pay $50 worth for a 5 billion transaction would still be cheap to them and a lot more secure than their average protocol.

It does affect difficulty if there are enough buyers and they are clogging the chain.  Last December was a spectacular high fee month and certainly got people to add gear or overclock gear.

The question remains to be answered can any heavy NFT action start up soon clogging the chain like mad?

Are Donald Trump's new NFT's on the normal BTC block chain? Do these kind of "releases" push up the costs for the usual BTC exchanges, or is there just not enough in size to tell?

If this too off-topic Phil, just feel free to delete it.

In reality, an epoch is a period of time, and therefore there are many epochs.
For example, within a year there are 4 seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter). But, a year can also be called an epoch.

What sometimes happens is that different terms are used to make it easier to identify what type of era is being referred to.

We can call what happens every ~14 days a cycle of difficulty. It is called an epoch, the period between two halvings. But, we can also call reward cycles.

Anyway, same terms, for several different things. What each one means depends on the context.

by definition :

Inside a blockchain network, an epoch is considered a specific period of time. This period of time is used to specify when specific events in a blockchain network will occur, such as when incentives will be distributed or when a new group of validators will be assigned to validate transactions.


that is  a google search.


so if that is correct there would be many different epochs

I have a mining question that has been bugging me for a while.

I see on some graphs on newhedge.io they say the epoch is the large period between halvings BUT on the difficulty estimator it shows the epoch as the time between the difficulty adjustments

Are they both epochs, or am I misunderstanding something?

From newhedge:


Latest Block:   857913  (8 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.2057%  (1114 / 1089.96 expected, 24.04 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   90666502495565.78                            
Current Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                            
Next Difficulty:   between 88430240175640 and 88829174972412
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7943% and +2.2536%
Previous Retarget:   August 14, 2024 at 7:54 PM  (-4.1857%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 12:39 PM  (in 6d 3h 5m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 2:06 PM  (in 6d 4h 32m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 44m 55s and 13d 18h 12m 1s


We are just past mid point and plus 2.2%

from newhedge


Latest Block:   857072  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.4387%  (273 / 258.92 expected, 14.08 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   90666502495565.78                           
Current Difficulty:   86871474313761.95                           
Next Difficulty:   between 88059912512637 and 91776913352758
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.3680% and +5.6468%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 7:54 PM  (-4.1857%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   August 28, 2024 at 2:34 AM  (in 11d 11h 30m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   August 28, 2024 at 3:31 PM  (in 12d 0h 28m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 40m 7s and 13d 19h 37m 26s


back to +4.5%

could be dumb luck

we will know more in four to five days.