280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) - page 8.

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

Quote from: mrb on April 09, 2013, 02:45:35 AM

Quote from: Micon on April 08, 2013, 12:10:12 PM

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB. I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date: 6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

I am not sure BFL can ship by June 1st...

what is your date that you would bet me 1:1 on?

mrb

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1028

Quote from: Micon on April 08, 2013, 12:10:12 PM

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB. I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date: 6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

I am not sure BFL can ship by June 1st...

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

Quote from: haitispaceagency on April 08, 2013, 12:20:51 PM

who won

It seems it aint that simple yet...

haitispaceagency

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Coinlancer.io ICO | Oct 14th

who won

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 03:38:56 PM

Quote from: Micon on April 02, 2013, 11:24:53 AM

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports& 1 device 350Mh/J+

No, thanks. It is too uncertain whether BFL can ship by 5/15 or not. However I would consider doubling or tripling our current bet, if we push the date to Sep 30, 2013 (1 year after the original shipping date!) while keeping all other conditions as is.

willing to talk bet right now if you'd like MrB. I think I can work with you on a date to make a new, larger wager.

How about:

100 coin bet
3+ "trusted" forum members who have never been to BFL offices in Kansas report with pix rec'ving device in mail and posting pix-proof it it hashing at 350+ Mh/J
Date: 6/1/2013
Same escrow setup as before, different pair of codes & different hash to keep things clean.

If anyone other than mrb is interested in betting on BFL shipping dates, holler at me.

MooC Tals

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

They doubled their prices because the price of bitcoins when up. This is their thinking process

The people that held on to their bitcoins and waited to buy will now buy with bitcoins that have appreciated in value so we will now jack the prices up. At the same time the pre-orders and slowing down and the refunds are speeding up.

They're sooo fucken lucky that bitcoins have run up in price or Big Fucken Liars would have gone out of business.

I was gonna buy one but now they just lost a customer. I won't buy from them ever and I'll wait for a competitor or buy from Avalon

Either way anyone who buys from BFL deserves what ever they get.

tommychong

newbie

Activity: 24

Merit: 0

they jacked the prices on them they doubled

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 03, 2013, 11:40:15 PM

Quote from: creativex on April 03, 2013, 11:31:19 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 03, 2013, 10:08:15 PM

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

Avalon draws 620w at the wall for 68GH/s = 9.1w/GHash
Bfl draws 179w at the wall for 24GH/s = 7.5w/Ghash

That's a significant advantage, and that's still the worst possible case for BFL. They had miners that did much better, at 1.76, 2.5, 4, and 6 w/ghash.

I guess we have different definitions for the word significant. Wonder why they'd choose to show a demo of one that consumes 7.5w/Gh if they had much better samples. Surely they knew that whatever they released would be thoroughly scrutinized. If BFL really does end up shipping a product that misses it's power estimates by 650%, I hope they're bankrupted by cancelled orders. I myself have been verbally assaulted on more than one occasion by BFL's troll in chief for suggesting that their 1w/Gh power estimate across their entire product line was unrealistic. I can't even count the number of people that I've seen spewing BFLs power estimate as though it were gospel. This was *THE* selling point after their shipping dates were missed again and again.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: creativex on April 03, 2013, 11:31:19 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 03, 2013, 10:08:15 PM

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

Avalon draws 620w at the wall for 68GH/s = 9.1w/GHash
Bfl draws 179w at the wall for 24GH/s = 7.5w/Ghash

That's a significant advantage, and that's still the worst possible case for BFL. They had miners that did much better, at 1.76, 2.5, 4, and 6 w/ghash.

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 03, 2013, 10:08:15 PM

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: creativex on April 03, 2013, 01:18:05 PM

Yeah I wasn't clear, I meant 230ish each. Sorry to dwell on this but I don't see how you're so calm about it. The only real advantage left was their huge power efficiency advantage estimate and that's turning out to be inaccurate as well. I'm certain I'd have cancelled when that first Avalon showed up and began dropping my expected returns if not sooner. Doing so whould've given you resources to invest in Avalon's batch 2, which is looking like the ASIC bargain of the year at this point. You seem like a pleasant enough fellow, hope this works out in your favor.

If I had a later order, I might have cancelled and gone for an Avalon. But I have a first-day order - I'll most certainly be in the first units to be shipped out. And I'm not terribly confident in Avalon's ability to actually get units to US customers either. They're taking 1.5-2 months to get there!

There's much better things in life to get upset about. I choose to live a stress-free life by not worrying about much of anything at all. It works well for me. Wink

As it is, I still stand to make a metric ton of money whenever they finally do arrive (double the $$ per day than when I first ordered them, even), so I'm not complaining.

Sure, in hindsight, it would have worked out better to order an Avalon. But I couldn't have known that. It was my choice to risk my order with BFL and not with Avalon, so I will take whatever consequences or reductions of benefits that come along with that choice.

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Yeah I wasn't clear, I meant 230ish each. Sorry to dwell on this but I don't see how you're so calm about it. The only real advantage left was their huge power efficiency advantage estimate and that's turning out to be inaccurate as well. I'm certain I'd have cancelled when that first Avalon showed up and began dropping my expected returns if not sooner. Doing so whould've given you resources to invest in Avalon's batch 2, which is looking like the ASIC bargain of the year at this point. You seem like a pleasant enough fellow, hope this works out in your favor.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: creativex on April 02, 2013, 07:11:14 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 02, 2013, 01:02:13 PM

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 03:37:44 AM

Quote from: Micon on March 30, 2013, 12:46:51 AM

This video recently came out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side Wink

As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good.

WOW

Didn't you pay them over 230BTCs for two singles nine months ago? You realize that if they ship on 6/30/2013 and the power consumption is anywhere near 10w/Gh you'll never even get your money back right?

450 BTC. And I'm not expecting to recover that much BTC through mining. Maybe half, maybe a bit more. Hindsight is 20/20!

As far as power usage, that was just the terms of the bet. At this point, I expect them to be 1/5 the power usage of an Avalon (120w for a Single), but that's just a guess. I really don't expect them to be anywhere near Avalon, that was just what we agreed upon so that I wouldn't have to worry about that aspect of the bet (and Micon wouldn't have to worry about them shipping out a cluster of FPGA's to win the bet on a technicality).

creativex

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: SgtSpike on April 02, 2013, 01:02:13 PM

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 03:37:44 AM

Quote from: Micon on March 30, 2013, 12:46:51 AM

This video recently came out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side Wink

As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good.

WOW

Didn't you pay them over 230BTCs for two singles nine months ago? You realize that if they ship on 6/30/2013 and the power consumption is anywhere near 10w/Gh you'll never even get your money back right?

mrb

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1028

Quote from: Micon on April 02, 2013, 11:24:53 AM

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports& 1 device 350Mh/J+

No, thanks. It is too uncertain whether BFL can ship by 5/15 or not. However I would consider doubling or tripling our current bet, if we push the date to Sep 30, 2013 (1 year after the original shipping date!) while keeping all other conditions as is.

SgtSpike

legendary

Activity: 1400

Merit: 1005

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 03:37:44 AM

Quote from: Micon on March 30, 2013, 12:46:51 AM

This video recently came out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side Wink

I hope you win your bet. I definitely expect to win mine. As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good.

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

Quote from: mrb on April 02, 2013, 03:37:44 AM

Quote from: Micon on March 30, 2013, 12:46:51 AM

This video recently came out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side Wink

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports& 1 device 350Mh/J+

mrb

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1028

Quote from: Micon on March 30, 2013, 12:46:51 AM

This video recently came out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side Wink

Atruk

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

Quote from: Micon on April 02, 2013, 02:11:18 AM

with this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/first-bfl-asic-163261

there is much renewed hope for BFL supporters.

If anyone wants some 1:1 action on April shipping / 350 Mh/J+ and 5+ confirmed members rec'd I will bet up to 250 btc against that

This thread is awfully cluttered, so you might as well let me know on here that you accepted my surrender in the March Madness Bracket.

Micon

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1014

FPV Drone Pilot

with this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/first-bfl-asic-163261

there is much renewed hope for BFL supporters.

If anyone wants some 1:1 action on April shipping / 350 Mh/J+ and 5+ confirmed members rec'd I will bet up to 250 btc against that

Topic: 280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) - page 8. (Read 46441 times)