I once had this guy coming around to bug me with weekend fixtures for coupon draws... Not until someone volunteered to stake heavily on them odds, just to prove to him that the authenticity of his games weren't guaranteed. Since he wasn't in a position to wager the games himself, the agreement was that if anyone wagers and it doesn't cut, he'll have to pay for the loss.. "I was surprised when he readily accepted". His confidence threw me off, but something kept telling me that he's got too much ballsiness for it to not.
Long story cut short, it was a win! yes, it became a surprise and infact, a mystery to everyone that his prediction just delivered as though he arranged with the fixed draws -- 6 draws came through and since then, he kept making predictions on that premise, but the opposite was the case for everytime he wrote down random numbers. Infact, he has never won since then!
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?
It is incredible just how confident people get when they attain a big win. Especially in probably the most irrational of routines known as sports betting, this is more apparent. The case you described is clearly an example of misplaced knowledge due to successful prediction. People with outstanding abilities usually come to believe that they possess a unique ability for predictions. Any kind of prediction is uneven and uncertain.
Sometimes, all that stems from a psychological phenomenon called overconfidence. The so-called "gambler's fallacy": people believe that past success will affect the future results in cases where they do not occur at all. The moment one wins unexpectedly, he may begin thinking his success comes more from his talents rather than luck. Further, it inclines him to risk an amount in betting with a belief that he is capable of rebuilding his success.
Moreover, if people feel that they have some special ability to predict the outcomes, they can estimate incorrect bets. Even more, even the random choice of numbers is enough to get a defeat sometimes. Over-confidence will lead to inappropriate decisions and losses if trying to repeat the initial success under conditions of inconsistency.
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?
As a gambler, it is so important to understand that luck plays a huge part in you winning, but some people believe they have found the winning pattern/strategy, just because they were lucky to win a game. If it was possible for one to get a winning pattern, they'd definitely run the bookmakers to the ground; so first thing is to be humble enough to accept that you have to be lucky to win and not that you can "magically" pick correct games.
You made a key point in this post which talked about humbling oneself and I couldn't agree more. If you don't remain humble the majority of the time then I would say to that man "pride comes before the fall". Lets not forget the importance of having confidence when I say this, I am not saying that being confident is a bad thing, but what I am saying is that you should be sure of how you feel in the moment in which you place your bet, having completed all necessary research and due diligence trust your gut instinct at the time in which you place any bet & maybe you will be more or less at ease when you make it and have better decisiveness in doing so.
You can complete any research and any due dilligence before placing your bets and nowadays it is very difficult to win them no matter how high your confidence is. The reason is simple, just think how much a referee can impact the game, you can research the referee too yes but I have seen the same referee behaving in a really different way in different games not keeping the same standard. They introduced VAR and yet they are not analyzing any goal chance but only some of them when in fact they should review all chances. This is enough to retain anyone smart enough to go into sport betting, specifically soccer betting.
It is inherently indeterminate, intangible, and external to results. No matter the extent of research done and confidence inspired, things such as referees' decisions and the improper use of technology such as VAR affect the outcome of a game in very great ways. Referees and decisions create a level of uncertainty that no analysis or prediction can adequately explain. This is because their performances change game to game, and can influence the outcome in areas no person can predict.
For inconsistent VAR selection and approaches, these are hard to bet on. Be it that the reviewed decisions are only periodic, or when referees fail to maintain the standards uniformly, this then leaves an added layer of unpredictability, which causes only singularly problematic issues with betting on sport.
All this unpredictability certainly brings into sharp focus how even remarkably well-informed gamblers sometimes find themselves in deep trouble. It serves to remind that research and perseverance are one thing, but they cannot totally eliminate the risks associated with gambling. The interaction here is multifunctional, including operations and technology, thereby making the outcomes of bets all too often unreliable despite any attempted analysis and prediction.
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?
That was truly a humbling experience for him lol.
But basically people’s confidence gets boosted when they get things right. It applies to everything. Once you have that confidence, it’s easy to start something or just go for it. It seems like a huge part of human nature to have an ego that can get you anywhere you want. Even though gambling or betting do not necessarily require any kind of expertise, people still believe in themselves and think that they can beat the chance of randomness.
It’s like being lucky once and then trying out if you can be lucky a hundred times more.
Exactly right we tend to booster our confidence whenever we does things right and if it becomes uncontrollable pride will come in and that can be very misleading, when it comes to predictions it is a matter of chance of luck and nothing to actually get pride of unless you don't seem to understand that dynamics of betting such that you can not be lucky all the times, enjoy your luck while it last and never fall a victim of being over confidence which will definitely attract emotionally devastation as when the opposite happens, hence it is always better to get control of every moment.
Overconfidence in gambling can lead to addiction because a gambler who got lucky and won and expects the wins to continue can be chasing it and it might not happen. I've heard of people who won big and in the process of chasing more wins they tend to over gamble and become addicted. People must not underestimate the fact that winning in gambling is by luck, not really because of your skills to analyze games. I have the believe that if someone really has sure bets that they will not share it with the public they'll keep multiplying their wins secretly.
You are absolutely right concerning overconfidence in gambling; high energy evokes high risks. The gambler comes to think highly of his special skill or "system" in predicting behavior, though recently it has been found that in most games the outcome depends more on luck than on skill. Overconfidence can lead a person to chase losses or try to imitate their own successes. This often leads to severe danger and the possibility of alcoholism.
The belief that we will always win because of special skills or knowledge Instead of resigned fate It may be an essential element in gambling. As you can understand from here, high achievers may be compelled to continue gambling. Thinking of the ability to keep gamble can cause psychological agony and raise gambling activity.
Moreover, the idea of people having outstanding betting patterns; what would make them more private than public would add a whole new twist to the issue. In fact, if such technologies exist, those people are also most likely to use them when being alone than in groups. It furthermore reiterates the idea that ongoing success with heavy gambling relies on luck, while relying solely on "optimal bets" becomes an unrealistic income and highly overly optimistic risk-taking behavior.