A reservoir of unpredictable games. - page 7.

Hatchy

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

It's always like that, you get over excited at the first time, thinking that it will also play out well for a second. Some people might be lucky enough though but we just have to remember that he was lucky at first doesn't guarantee his second that was where he failed. Again, he might not be taking his predictions seriously anymore, thinking that since it was that easy the first time he can just lazily predict more with same effort. We just have to remember that predictions is all about luck so don't trust them too much. That's more reason I play deaf ears to some people who claims to be experts in predictions and begin sales of odds.

Julien_Olynpic

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Of course, at the very beginning it was just random luck. This version is proven by the fact that it was followed by a much longer series of losses. In general, a draw in a sports match is something that is extremely difficult to predict and this definitely adds complexity to predicting such matches. Why take sports where one of the outcomes is a draw? After all, this dramatically reduces your chances of winning. Although in this case the author of the topic does not tell us what kind of sport we are talking about. But usually, even in those sports where there is a draw, you can still find offers from bookmakers in which there would be no draw. For example, the total is more or less for a certain number of goals.

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on July 10, 2024, 06:19:34 PM

Quote from: Coyster on July 10, 2024, 05:57:02 PM

Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

As a gambler, it is so important to understand that luck plays a huge part in you winning, but some people believe they have found the winning pattern/strategy, just because they were lucky to win a game. If it was possible for one to get a winning pattern, they'd definitely run the bookmakers to the ground; so first thing is to be humble enough to accept that you have to be lucky to win and not that you can "magically" pick correct games.

Let us put it this way, their confidence is boosted because of their winnings. But they need to acknowledge the fact that even if you know the sports very well and you feel, you have found the pattern or mechanics to win, there are still blind spots that you can't account for. They may have won a game by deploying his strategy, but it doesn't mean, it will work the next time around.

Yes, maybe he was too confident of his prediction at that time and really think that he can win and so it resulted in that way. But what happens after that? He didn't win and instead just suffered loses and so that confidence is shattered already.

And we all know that you can't win all the time, you might have success today, but tomorrow it could be very different outcome and then you will just scratch your head to your unlucky streak. So I do agree that it's all about luck and it just happens that he pick the correct games due to this.

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

That was truly a humbling experience for him lol.

But basically people’s confidence gets boosted when they get things right. It applies to everything. Once you have that confidence, it’s easy to start something or just go for it. It seems like a huge part of human nature to have an ego that can get you anywhere you want. Even though gambling or betting do not necessarily require any kind of expertise, people still believe in themselves and think that they can beat the chance of randomness.

It’s like being lucky once and then trying out if you can be lucky a hundred times more.

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What i derived over here is that he was too proud of himself knowing too well that draws are the most difficult games to predict in sports betting unlike other options given to choose amongst.
The reason why his games weren't playing according to how he does predict them is became he was too confident of himself since the initial day went well with his prediction he thought the rest days could come as same, that is why we as gambler shouldn't be carried away by any predictions because we know that it's always a game of luck and probabilities. Hence the probability of him winning the next weekend match was 0-1.

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

I once had this guy coming around to bug me with weekend fixtures for coupon draws... Not until someone volunteered to stake heavily on them odds, just to prove to him that the authenticity of his games weren't guaranteed. Since he wasn't in a position to wager the games himself, the agreement was that if anyone wagers and it doesn't cut, he'll have to pay for the loss.. "I was surprised when he readily accepted". His confidence threw me off, but something kept telling me that he's got too much ballsiness for it to not.

Long story cut short, it was a win! yes, it became a surprise and infact, a mystery to everyone that his prediction just delivered as though he arranged with the fixed draws -- 6 draws came through and since then, he kept making predictions on that premise, but the opposite was the case for everytime he wrote down random numbers. Infact, he has never won since then!
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

Isn't it obvious though that it's luck and coincidence? And it just shows how unpredictable the games was, and in any case, it he takes the bait that he will pay for it, then I have a feeling that if everything goes bad and you didn't win, I don't know, maybe he will make a lot of excuses to not pay you.

So in the second prediction that he gave you, did you put a bet on the line again that he will pay you if he losses?

Or it is just you believed him then and then just follow his beat thinking that it will be a win?

Accardo

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People easily trust proves than mere say. Yesterday, before the Spain and France match I clearly made a 2:1 goal prediction for a friend, and the first statement he made after the match was about the accuracy of my prediction. Some predictions - sport predictions in particular, do not survive the expectations of people on the long term, because of the uncertain upshots of the game. Regardless, if I maintained this gambling intellectual guise, he would, in the next game, go down with whatever predictions from me. Same applies to every gambler that relies on others for predictions. The predictor who now claims a shark won't let down his ego so easily, by accepting his predictions as a mere say. Following this interpretation, it may be realistic to say that nobody dares to question the recurring losses erupting from the reservoir's predictions, because they are lazy to redo the predictions themselves.

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Quote from: Coyster on July 10, 2024, 05:57:02 PM

Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

As a gambler, it is so important to understand that luck plays a huge part in you winning, but some people believe they have found the winning pattern/strategy, just because they were lucky to win a game. If it was possible for one to get a winning pattern, they'd definitely run the bookmakers to the ground; so first thing is to be humble enough to accept that you have to be lucky to win and not that you can "magically" pick correct games.

Let us put it this way, their confidence is boosted because of their winnings. But they need to acknowledge the fact that even if you know the sports very well and you feel, you have found the pattern or mechanics to win, there are still blind spots that you can't account for. They may have won a game by deploying his strategy, but it doesn't mean, it will work the next time around.

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

There’s this mindset that engulfs gamblers after managing to hit a big win and that is the “what if this one turns out to be the same as the one that came out correct” minset. They’ll just be feeling as if all their games / predictions has the potential to make a huge impact on their life thus the reason you see them going back despite experiencing a losing streak.

It might not be entirely true but that’s just what I feel is the reason behind it - because if you haven’t win anything you won’t have that mindset except you have managed it once then you’ll be filled with over confidence that you’d be able to replicate it a second time but after much trial you’ll realise that it was just an act of luck and not something you could do anything you wish to.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

I once had this guy coming around to bug me with weekend fixtures for coupon draws... Not until someone volunteered to stake heavily on them odds, just to prove to him that the authenticity of his games weren't guaranteed. Since he wasn't in a position to wager the games himself, the agreement was that if anyone wagers and it doesn't cut, he'll have to pay for the loss.. "I was surprised when he readily accepted". His confidence threw me off, but something kept telling me that he's got too much ballsiness for it to not.

Long story cut short, it was a win! yes, it became a surprise and infact, a mystery to everyone that his prediction just delivered as though he arranged with the fixed draws -- 6 draws came through and since then, he kept making predictions on that premise, but the opposite was the case for everytime he wrote down random numbers. Infact, he has never won since then!
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

I really didn’t understand the gist of this story. I can only say that even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day. That guy was apparently very unlucky - in the sense that he once believed in his ability to predict winnings and even had it. ray when it was "confirmed". Now it will be very difficult for him to be convinced of the opposite and he may lose money all his life.
My life experience suggests that the most unlucky gamblers are those who begin their “career” as a gambler with winnings.

Coyster

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Quote from: Sandra_hakeem on July 10, 2024, 05:32:37 PM

Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

As a gambler, it is so important to understand that luck plays a huge part in you winning, but some people believe they have found the winning pattern/strategy, just because they were lucky to win a game. If it was possible for one to get a winning pattern, they'd definitely run the bookmakers to the ground; so first thing is to be humble enough to accept that you have to be lucky to win and not that you can "magically" pick correct games.

Orpichukwu

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He was lucky that the first game played the way he predicted; if not, he could have still been thinking about how to repay that money. I doubt he even has it considering the fact that you said he was not in a position to wager it himself.

Back to the main question, I can't really tell why most people feel that way, but one thing is very certain: their confidence increases immediately when they predict the first game, which is played as predicted, and they now feel like they have something in them that whispers the correct games to them that others don't have.

Sandra_hakeem

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I once had this guy coming around to bug me with weekend fixtures for coupon draws... Not until someone volunteered to stake heavily on them odds, just to prove to him that the authenticity of his games weren't guaranteed. Since he wasn't in a position to wager the games himself, the agreement was that if anyone wagers and it doesn't cut, he'll have to pay for the loss.. "I was surprised when he readily accepted". His confidence threw me off, but something kept telling me that he's got too much ballsiness for it to not.

Long story cut short, it was a win! yes, it became a surprise and infact, a mystery to everyone that his prediction just delivered as though he arranged with the fixed draws -- 6 draws came through and since then, he kept making predictions on that premise, but the opposite was the case for everytime he wrote down random numbers. Infact, he has never won since then!
Why do people see themselves as a reservoir of unpredictable games whenever they bag a huge win in the midst of others?

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