Topic: Already delays in BFL shipment plans? - page 22. (Read 49567 times)

Lol .....ill buy them for 9 cents

Two years is insane in case of mining because it takes much less than two years to design and manufacture the next generation of ASICs which will push your rigs into the "never profitable" category.

every single time i click in on this thread...

Thank you - and to you

Well, either way, the result is either alot of people are going to be very thankful that low end devices have a two year long profit. (Unlikely IMO)

Or they will be disgruntled when they begin to realize it. Either way, I don't have to deal with the customer service, the demands, the irate phone calls etc. So I feel unaffected about it.

It will make customers even more disgruntled if any Vendor lowers it's price while they (the customer)  tries to offload it and get their money back. But I could be wrong....this may never happen.

I know of at least one vendor whos main motto is about never leaving their customer high and dry. They will never do them wrong [supposedly]. Of that I am sure...

Edit: By the way, in any market there is a way to the top. Even when things go to hell in a hand basket. If you can buy up all the hardware at very discounted rates. That is truly the only way I see anyone making their profits quickly and easily. Buying up the hardware at a virtual fire sale.

You might jeer me and think I am spouting the absurd, but I would not be the least surprised if there are other astute individuals thinking about how they are going to enter the Gray Market and snatch up rigs at cheap prices. If a person can get the rigs at a discounted price, then this will ameliorate the issues to some degree. (Over both the long and short term.)

This has already been discussed openly at BitCoinTalk.org several times. This is not news to anyone. A vendors price is just as important as the difficulty and combined hashing power on the network.

All I do know is I am not going to be buying them up at a loss for other folks. It is very easy to lose money on BitCoin mining.

Deja Vu!

BFL is still late at delivering even with more experience....1.5 years later....thank you for the continual consistency?

Let us all hope they are ready to ship [in volume] in about 5 days. If not, oh well, you won't know about it until just the day before...of course...

Okay, enough with the banter, I got it out of my system.

---The past is a disturbing repeat of the present.

I just have to replace "ASIC" with "GPU" in Puerto Libre's post above and I can feel like I'm back in 2011 again. It's like Hot Tub time machine.  If I cared enough to search a bit, I could probably find that exact post from back then talking about why GPUs are already unprofitable and no one should continue to invest in GPU mining circa March 2011.

HALF FACEPALM? 

I'm not being paid enough for this job.

With all the talk of ROI... (and admittedly, my eyes kept blurring out at all of the talk and figures and assumptions), I don't remember exactly what exchange rate people were assuming when working out their ROI numbers to begin with.

So, are people assuming that the price is going to stay the same as they are now?

-- Smoov

@ SloK

The biggest risk in this plan is that BFL lowers their price in March when people have had time with their ASIC devices and report back their experiences.. I expect this to be negative due to the difficulty level.

If buyers of First Gen ASICs begin selling off their hardware to prospective buyers whom don't have to wait for batches and parts....I suspect that BFL may crush the Gray Market by lowering it's prices significantly. Something which BFL customers have asked for a guarantee against. (Which has been denied)

Unhappy buyers can squash any extra profits for the Vendors if they sell their hardware in droves. Why get a bASIC or BFL Single at 100% the purchase price if you can find it at 75% in the Gray market on this forum?

@ Slok

Thank you for your thorough answer. Feel free to ask me any questions beyond this one so you understand my view and general assumptions.

I have not yet commented on the Avalon thread on this topic. I assume that the Avalon device was originally rated higher than the conservative 60Gh/s and the Avalon team was likely targeting the DeepBit 80Gh/s system and not BFL's Single SC (@ 40Gh/s) at the time they formulated the Avalon Device.

I presume in reality they will have a final Gh/s rate of somewhere around 70 to 75Gh/s. (Currently they are at 66Gh/s)

I believe they will ultimately offer a lower GH/s rate than they "probably can" because of power requirements and what other vendors are aiming for. I believe they will come out at somewhere around 200 to 250 watts (at worst). (160watts at best)

You may ask what the basis is for that idea. The answer is that they never seemed to be aiming for BFL and their hardware seems to be stylized in the same manner and concept as DeepBits design rather than that of BFL.

-----------------------------

To be truthful though, they are caught by the same malady we have been talking about for the last few pages. The difficulty and the wide availability of ASIC devices is what will make rigs unprofitable as a source of income.

To mitigate this issue, I am going to privately make graphs in the background that will tell me what the actual value of a device is at any point in time. (Vendor specific)

I will only hold out in selling the Avalon device when a few specific thresholds are reached.

A) The devaluation of First Gen ASIC hardware on the basis of what price it can be sold at from week to week. (Devaluation is very important to setting a resale value in the "Gray market".) <--- At a discount.
B) The rate of rising difficulty from a week to week basis and how it affects returns.
C) The rate of new/old customers wishing to purchase new or extra ASIC devices which add hashing power to the BitCoin Network.
D) The present feel for what the ASIC community will bear vs recouped costs (to date).

With all these in mind, I will then sell the device at a discount if it is seriously unprofitable and allow someone else to take on the burden of risk. Then wait until Gen 2 and repurchase the hardware.

---------------------------

My understanding is that many members buying ASICs will be lulled into staying with their hardware for too long because they do gradually recover their costs. The issue will be when people keep the ASIC devices to the point of severe devaluation and when the Grey market does not want first gen ASIC devices at any discounted cost.

At that point it will be too late to get your investment out of harms way and anyone left in that boat will be in it for the long haul. Having been stuck with over priced hardware and dwindling returns, I expect that Gen 2 will come out in about 6 months and most will not want to splurge for a second Gen device considering they are still not covering the costs of the first.

So it is best to offload it just before the gray market turns sour and people realize the lemons in the lemonade.

I expect Gen 2 will probably be a little lower in price than Gen 1. It will probably also be more advanced and hopefully faster. If that is the case, Gen 2 is probably where you want to put your cash.

If you over invested, it is unlikely you will be able to offload a large quantity of units without a significant discount.

I don't intend to cancel. I hope that someone has come up with a better plan or that the undisclosed features of the Vendor I chose is adequate enough to justify holding on to it for a few months longer.

At the moment the only problem with the Avalon device is it's electrical use. That alone won't bother people much if you sell it at the beginning when the rate of return and resell value is high.

This won't be a viable sell though if I wait too long to and the margins shrink.

I hope this answered your questions.

Indeed !  Agree

None have delivered yet, BFL competitors with futur delivery dates have not proven that they will deliver in time.  All those ROI stuff, I dont care that much, because no one can predict the value of a bitcoin vs any fiat currency.  So, Perso, I dont care about ROI and all those power cost, as I'm pretty sure BTC will worth a lot more, multiple times actual value VS any fiat.   So as long as I mine coin, I'm happy.

Someone in this thread have stated (dont worth time to find who and quote it) that Jalapenos have not sell and no ones might have bought Jalapenos, as no one would care mining with a so low Ghs.. !  
1 - How can this be known, except by BFL peeps.
2 - Some friends of mine have ordered those Jalapenos, E.G. one of my friend mine with only 200 Mhs.. And he's happy to get his 0.1 BTC / day.  If Diff climb up 10x, then to conitnue to mine his 0.1/day, he must make X10 on his Mhs.. that mean 2000 Mhs, with his Jalapenos, we would be happy to mine 0.225 BTC / day.
3 - Like me, this friend does'nt care a lot about when he will receive his BFL Jalapenos, unless it's not in 3 month.. Sure we would be both happy to have it in the first 2 weeks of the first ASIC, but we will not be mad if not..

As long as we mine same or a bit more BTC after the BIG Diff increase, we will be happy to have this BTC entry, to hoard, spend, sell, anything.. BTC still comming in each day, that's what matter for us.

Serious investor who invested in ten-thousands or maybe more, if intelligent have order some from each 3 competitors, and the most part from BFL b/c of planed power usage, or wait to see real facts to put real big money in ...

I'm kinda tired of all those complaints, trolling, spamming sh1t !  I cant understand how someone could be so full of anger and spew it on the internet like this !  Get out, breath fresh air, get a llife, anything, but please, stop polluting this forum..

You have a point, write it once.  Then leave to anything else !


Was my point !

I think the ASIC devices are going to take the fun out of mining. Or people just doing it  because they have an extra PC with a GPU. Kinda sad not gonna see all those rigs with wires every where just waiting to start house fires....lol

2 years to get 100% ROI is awesome. (at stocks it really is because they represent real equity with tangible value, unlike ASIC devices potentially)

BUT

With bitcoin + specialized HW (bfl, avalon, basic..) its not. In 2 years you get the money you invested back so you made 0 profit at that point (and ASIC device which may be worth something or not) or a little minus if you account for inflation and opportunity cost of interest you would get if you depisited that same money on a bank for 2 years.
Its a chance Bitcoin will fail in 2 years or before or mining with some ASICs becomes unprofitable and then you cant sell them because market for them will not exist anymore.

So when you people say that 100% ROI in 2 years for mining Bitcoins with ASICs is awesome u dont have a clue what risk means.

[I have several ASICs ordered at several manufacturers so im prepared to take that risk myself, but i dont think its awesome.]

So, to answer the question why miners stop their gpu and fpga farms: (are they at the moment?

2 vidcard $800 -  1600 Mh/s - 600W incl.host pc = $60 power
           Coins           Dollars
per Day   ฿0.48   $5.61
per Week   ฿3.34   $39.29
per Month   ฿14.52   $170.64  at 10fold diff./block reward halving $8.50 - hardw.roi 94 months, loss $51.50/month

6 vidcard $1600 - 4800Mh/s - 1800W incl.host pc = $180 power
           Coins     Dollars
per Day   ฿1.43   $16.84
per Week   ฿10.03   $117.87
per Month   ฿43.57   $511.91  at 10fold diff./block reward halving $26 - hardware roi 62 months, loss $154/month

jalapeno $149 - 4500Mh/s - 120W incl.host pc = $12 power
                Coins           Dollars
per Day   ฿1.34   $15.79
per Week   ฿9.40   $110.51
per Month   ฿40.84   $479.91  at 10fold diff./block reward halving $24 - hardware roi 6 months, profit $12/month

little single $649 - 30000Mh/s -150W incl.host pc = $15 power
           Coins           Dollars
per Day   ฿8.96   $105.24
per Week   ฿62.70   $736.71
per Month   ฿272.30   $3,199.43  at 10fold diff./block reward halving $160 - hardware roi 4 months, profit $145/month

Of course deducting power cost directly would increase roi period, left that for ease, already typed the lot twice due to firefox fucking up, you'll get the point.
Satisfactory?

@ thoughtfan

I do not know who you are, but you have earned my respect with you insightful. helpful and community building advice. Many thanks to you and yours on this Holiday weekend.

We need more folks like you!

@ Inaba, please may I appeal that you refrain from mockery and vitriolic outbursts.  I understand you are not officially representing BFL with this identity and understand also how some (particularly Frizz) may be driving you up the wall.

However, your day-job role as the face of BFL means your conduct is part of how people form their opinion of the company.

Before deciding to place my order with BFL I took quite some time reading the various threads and in the end decided the potential positives slightly outweighed the negatives.  Of course the negative risk, especially on the integrity of the company, is simply a judgement and one of the factors was, and continues to be, the way you talk to customers and critics.  It plays a part in how professional an outfit BFL comes over as and though it would be in my long-term interest if you continued (if BFL delivers to me whilst your outbursts put off other potential purchasers) I would rather you learned not to.

One trick I have learned with emails (and it wasn't a quick, cheap lesson either!) is to recognise when I'm typing angrily, to keep typing and let rip - then resist the temptation to press send, instead simply saving in drafts and coming back to it in the morning.  By doing this a lot I have learned not only do I end up not writing so disrespectfully (even when I am certain that the intended recipient had thoroughly earned my disrespect) but the essential points I want to make invariably come across clearer to an order of magnitude.

Of course this is a forum where quick banter back and forth is the order of the day and people shouldn't be too sensitive but it's also always worth bearing in mind there are a lot more readers seeing what you've written than your intended target.  And even if it's right that some get a verbal slap now and again why not leave it to the others and simply and calmly point out errors with clarifications for the record?

Sorry if this comes over as patronising but I wanted to express it.