Author

Topic: Analysis - page 105. (Read 941579 times)

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
October 10, 2016, 09:26:30 PM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

An opinion most people don't share. Got anything a little more compelling?

Quote
the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.
'Resolved' means to your satisfaction, I guess. It seems resolved technically, to my satisfaction - no change for now, followed by a change when we can ALL agree on a hard fork some time in the future.

The lack of political resolution is the worst aspect, leading to some loss of confidence. Confidence will likely return when the fud stops. You can help there Smiley
Quote

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.


C'mon. It does that all day every day. Look at the charts.

Quote
limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

If you mean 'limit the onchain transaction volume', you might be right. Otherwise not.
Limit the price? Have you been looking at the charts???
'limit the amount of users'? I see only evidence that the number of users is increasing. It's anecdotal since there seems to be no better way. Do you have anything compelling to offer in support of your premise?



harrymmmm, you're an ignorant fool. zimmah's absolutely right. You'll never see 1000+ unless the artificial tps limit is lifted. Once it's increased to 2/4/8+ mb, you will see a huge boost in price. The tps limit causes low transaction volume, low adoption rate, thusly low price. Maybe you can't understand this due to your limited intellect, but to the smarter ones, this is so obvious.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
October 10, 2016, 03:42:02 PM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

It is also possible that some alt will take over. The more privacy oriented coins are just better than BTC - there is no feature that bitcoin has and they cannot, but they are better in privacy.

lel shitfork and pitchcoin drama.

either bitcoins goes off the roof, or nothing.

patience is key.
legendary
Activity: 1202
Merit: 1015
October 09, 2016, 03:25:57 AM
imho we'd be lucky to reach 2-3k at the next bubble. after that we might drop less in % but be more stable for longer after. as price grows fluctuations become lower and cycles longer. though if the fiat run on banks begin anytime soon then we should expect huge crypto influx right after pm futures spike & reach physical capacity limit. tbh i believe that while being aware of the global situation the whales are waiting for exactly that moment as that way the pump wouldnt be sponsored by their own cash, therefore those that got burned at last pump wouldnt dump on their investment..
.. anyways - just a thought.
hero member
Activity: 576
Merit: 503
October 08, 2016, 04:13:08 AM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

An opinion most people don't share. Got anything a little more compelling?

Quote
the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

Fortunately block size limit seems to be unimportant so far, despite all the doom predicted.
'Resolved' means to your satisfaction, I guess. It seems resolved technically, to my satisfaction - no change for now, followed by a change when we can ALL agree on a hard fork some time in the future.

The lack of political resolution is the worst aspect, leading to some loss of confidence. Confidence will likely return when the fud stops. You can help there Smiley
Quote

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.


C'mon. It does that all day every day. Look at the charts.

Quote
limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

If you mean 'limit the onchain transaction volume', you might be right. Otherwise not.
Limit the price? Have you been looking at the charts???
'limit the amount of users'? I see only evidence that the number of users is increasing. It's anecdotal since there seems to be no better way. Do you have anything compelling to offer in support of your premise?

zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
October 08, 2016, 01:08:48 AM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

It is also possible that some alt will take over. The more privacy oriented coins are just better than BTC - there is no feature that bitcoin has and they cannot, but they are better in privacy.
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
October 08, 2016, 12:52:42 AM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.

The transaction volume is despite the problems 5 times higher than at the top of the last bubble.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1005
October 07, 2016, 06:16:14 PM

the next bubble could be very high, the problem is the next bubble wil never come if we keep going on like this.

the blocksize debate that has been going on for so long and still is not resolved, and the centralization and censorship are slowly killing bitcoin, and people are moving on to altcoins because bitcoin just does not support increased capacity at the moment.

the price won't magically rise without the transaction volume also rising.

limit the transaction volume, limit the price and limit the amount of users. the remaining users will flee.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 07, 2016, 05:27:52 PM
I could only wish for Bitcoin to be worth $8000 each.
That would make my small invest actually worth something LOL.

Do people really think such a rise is possible?
Its obviously much easier to have something go up in value 100x when the price is very small.


one day it will be worth $10 k.

Question is, can you hold until it does?
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
October 07, 2016, 10:22:17 AM
I could only wish for Bitcoin to be worth $8000 each.
That would make my small invest actually worth something LOL.

Do people really think such a rise is possible?
Its obviously much easier to have something go up in value 100x when the price is very small.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
October 07, 2016, 08:48:14 AM
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 501
September 30, 2016, 03:58:48 AM
^^ huh Huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.

Yes. No matter how long these consolidations take they always end up breaking upwards.  I am drawing yellow = yellow pattern, blue = blue pattern. Same patterns, played in reverse. Seems likely, since masterluc says we are almost in historical III up, and those patterns played in 2012 preceeded major wave III up in 2013.

Most important is to remember, 2014Jan-2015Apr was the bear market. We are in a bull market now, it is key to stay bull in a bull market.

then it's time to break downward, as if the market was that simple ...  Roll Eyes
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
September 29, 2016, 05:59:02 PM
^^ huh Huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.

Yes. No matter how long these consolidations take they always end up breaking upwards.  I am drawing yellow = yellow pattern, blue = blue pattern. Same patterns, played in reverse. Seems likely, since masterluc says we are almost in historical III up, and those patterns played in 2012 preceeded major wave III up in 2013.

Most important is to remember, 2014Jan-2015Apr was the bear market. We are in a bull market now, it is key to stay bull in a bull market.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
September 27, 2016, 04:22:46 AM
^^ huh Huh

Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
September 26, 2016, 06:55:43 PM
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9nx1RqIj/

Seems like 2012, but the two patterns in reverse order.

 So while we are all predicting Ping Pong or crash or moon, perhaps the market will just flat for 3 months, then slowly rise. Rise into wave 3, rise into all time high, rise into fomo, rise into greed, rise into bubble.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
September 21, 2016, 07:05:23 PM
Observation.

Price was mostly below weekly sma20 during downtrend - in negative BB zone.

Since uptrend price was always above weekly sma20.

Now on Edge. Close below will make me worry.



You had predicted a triangle into 2017. Would it not make sense for the weekly SMA20 to break at some point during such a triangle?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1013
September 21, 2016, 03:36:24 PM
Observation.

Price was mostly below weekly sma20 during downtrend - in negative BB zone.

Since uptrend price was always above weekly sma20.

Now on Edge. Close below will make me worry.

hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 501
September 15, 2016, 12:41:26 PM
So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...



Potential B waves. But you are still not wrong, if potential B waves there is, that could be seen as a short term bull market in a bigger bear market.

PS: cheers for the masterluc historical post, sums up everything pretty well on EW.
hero member
Activity: 509
Merit: 564
"In Us We Trust"
September 15, 2016, 07:02:22 AM
So far, 2016 is pretty good, but there aren't any clear signs of a real rally still.

Price hasn't broken the ATH, but I wouldn't say that we're still in a bear market. IMO, we have been back in an up-trending bull market since after the first half of 2015...

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