Topic: Analysis - page 14. (Read 941579 times)

This is probably the scariest Bitcoin chart I've ever seen 

I think that's probably what has attracted most people to it, even if they haven't voiced it to themselves. Satoshi knew it too.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.329

Bitcoin was born during turmoil. It will come of age during and after the current shitshow.

Having said that it would be fascinating to see what a Bitcoin that was chugging along happily and obscurely in ten years from now would look like. Would it be abandoned rapidly, develop a die hard audience that lasted forever but didn't grow or have a second wind a few more years down the line? We'll likely never know. It's death or glory.

If enough miners keep on mining, Bitcoin will survive.
The only way Bitcoin can fail completely is through a collapse of the mining network until it's too small to survive attack.
Right now the price is below mining cost, and pretty soon the price will be less than half the mining cost, unless the price goes up substantially and soon.
That's the only danger I can see.  Not saying Bitcoin will necessarily go into a death spin unless the price goes up, but that's the possible failure scenario:  too many miners leaving the network because it just doesn't pay.
Good times probably ahead so long as we make it through this rough patch.
I suppose I agree with cAPSLOCK that btc is a binary bet, much as I hate to say it.

I completely agree that the capitulation is real.  I see LONG time bulls musing the death of the corn.

The way I see it the pummeling the price took was mostly institutional investors running for cover at the beginning of the big meltdown.  They had been in playing with derivatives and no doubt manipulating the price along the way... but most of them fled to cash at the beginning of this thing.  Who was left?  The people who have been here for a while... some of them questioning the future, sure, and some selling along with wall street players.  But that is why we saw the big dip, and then that is why it was over.  Trading 24/7... no circuit breakers. A totally free market asset.  What we saw was not colored by anything.  It was a real as it can get.  As I think is what we are seeing now.

And let's face it.  Bitcoin is still a binary bet. 

Bitcoin was the culmination of a lot of tech and a small group of folks had been trying to design something that would do what it did for a while.  The cypherpunks and cryptographers were (are) not exactly monolithic in their politics or worldview.  But I do not believe the message baked into the genesis block was chosen randomly.  The headline was tucked into block #1 and will go down in history as a part of the definition of what Satoshi was trying to do.

If it works?  If it continues to work?  This is the time it was made for.

It's do or die.  Binary bet.  Plenty of ways it can fail, for sure.  And it will be a loss the world may never entirely understand if it does fail.

I think we are about to see the next stage of it's evolution and existence though... Either that or it's demise.  It's not going to just reamin some obscure little digital plaything.

The smart money is probably doing that, which is why I'm extremely skeptical of Peter Brandt's sub-$1,000 prediction. He's the type to FUD his Twitter followers while buying the dip.

For the most part, I think the panic and capitulation sentiment was real. It's a big part of the reason BTC is probably bottoming out. When sentiment gets overwhelmingly bearish, it indicates everyone who was going to sell has already sold. It's all these trapped sellers and shorters from the $3,000s-$5,000s who are now chasing the price up, and who will continue driving the market higher if a new bull market emerges.

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

I don't really disagree with anything that you say, except I quibble, a bit, with your "guess" word choice. 

As compared with 2013 through 2016, these days it seems to me that we have a quite a bit more information, and even some more intricate and rigorous BTC price prediction models that use four more years of BTC history, too (including Lindy effect). 

Seems to me, that bitcoin has been built on decently solid foundations, and of course, NOT everything in bitcoin is perfect, but sure as fuck, it continues to have a lot going for it, and there are a lot of really smart people jumping on board to bitcoin, and even trying to criticize bitcoin, while they subsequently end up jumping on-board, because after studying bitcoin, it is realized that there is so damned much about it that remains brilliant and amazing.. and close enough to perfect, without anything that really competes with it in any kind of substantial and meaningful way.



I agree with you that we cannot rule out any scenario, including going to zero scenarios, Armageddon-like (which seem to be extremely unlikely, even in the seemingly dire circumstances in which the macro environment seems to be presenting, currently).   So, yeah, quite too early to determine, and seems that BTC price dynamics would need to be out of line with stock to flow (and perhaps other models) for a decent amount of time (and perhaps quantity too) before even coming close to discarding their predictive value.  Even currently, as I type, the current BTC price does not seem to be very far out of line with any of the current BTC price prediction models.

that's what it comes down to. the way i see it, this pandemic-induced downturn is a black swan either way. will it destroy everything in its path like the 2008 crisis? i dunno. it may just be an epic shakeout that delays the bull market by a year or so. we really have no idea. all we can do is guess.

there are plenty of "experts" anticipating doomsday, while others think we are near the peak of supply chain shock and market panic. your guess is as good as mine!


if this crash represents another 1929 (like great depression level shit) that's the kind of black swan that IMO could easily break the existing prediction models. i'm not throwing them out yet, i'm just open to that kind of possibility.

Well, I didnt said that bitcoin is broken, only that it failed its purpose. The market, however, is broken, as it is tainted by paper speculation, and the brainwashing of the hodler cult will let things as it is, confirming the eternal bear trend.

Deflation is a possibility, because services, businesses, etc, were all cut down. This will lead to prices of products tanking, with the exception of food. Prices of food will increase as farms will also be shut down, and this will hold deflation for some time.

The debts, however, might result in a default, as you said. This will cause the dollar collapse, which could prompt governments to adopt bitcoin. But since bitcoin is following the fiat market, its more likely they will suck its resources first, leaving it in a bear market for many years, postponing this default. That is why I put a long period before we see 10k again.

ATH will be dependent on governments turning in to bitcoin. However, they could create their own cryptocurrency, as they have been studying blockchain for many years. This is the most likely scenario, as they will have full control of this new cryptocurrency, and people will adopt it out of desperation (there will be no food, no services, etc).

This recent market crash was all about centralization of finance in the hands of a few speculators, who bought the bonds from key companies. So its likely they will release a centralized cryptocurrency. Then, they kill the dollar, default all the debt, and bitcoin will be a relic from the past, destroyed by constant liquidations. I believe they will also release two or three new pandemics during this time, to bring more panic.

I agree that the time frame may have shifted considerably. But I doubt 4-6 yrs is the play book because of deflation. If we have 4-6 years of deflation, Bitcoin will be the least of our worries. If the money printing trick cannot get this show on the road again into something resembling a ‘recovery’ or at least a muddle through scenario, we are f* big time.

With our current ‘elastic’ money system, I don’t see a long and prolonged deflation in the cards. Stock markets tanking is one thing, seeing while industries collapse over the years because not interfering with money printing is another.

Yes, there will be pain. No, there will be no long cleansing deflation undoing all the damage caused by blowing debt bubbles.

They will try more of the same. And then some more. And more.

These measures will not be taken 4-6 years form now. It will be sooner. And they can be expected to blow wind in Bitcoin’s sails. $10k isn’t that far away if this train starts to move again.

Not happy to say so, but I tend to agree. Not because BTC is definitely broken, but because there is a fair probability the world is in a strong deflation, despite govt interventions.

( the next bit copied from my post on WO thread)

I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'.  Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger.

The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to implement.

BUT, in fairness to them, it's what they should be saying to give us more time to buy the dip, and HODL. I also do it to my non-Bitcoiner friends. Hahaha.

fabiorem, and Majormax are doing it to the wrong people.

That seems to be part of the reason for my ongoing skepticisms of these various conclusory assertions, and yeah we got all kinds of those bitcoin is dead, or ATH will never be reached again, and this time is different (meaning bitcoin is really broken), even though there was convincing contrary arguments and even this time, the price prediction models seem to be quite stronger even though we all should recognize that even our decently strong current BTC price prediction models are far from a guarantee. 

There are all kinds of examples of the bitcoin naysaying arguments, and specifically, I remember the strength of the arguments that we would never see $500 again were considerable in early 2016 when we had largely gotten stuck between $390-ish and $440-ish for more than 6 months... and of course, most of 2015 we were stuck well below $300, and were told, over and over that $300 would never be breached again.  We know what happened in both of those occasions, and including several similar situations, including the missing of buying opportunities for people who waited to buy BTC and disgruntlement from some of the people who sold all or most of their BTC during those periods, either locking in their earlier gains at relatively low prices or expecting to be able to buy back BTC lower at a later date.

Don't worry about their "predictions". We should take their posts as mere "forum-friendly-debates".

Were people saying the same things when Bitcoin crashed to $200 the months after the ATH? It will never achieve a new ATH of $1,000 again? Where's the floor?

Hey, I am not asserting that any of those more doomy and gloomy scenarios are completely out of line, but surely, current BTC price prediction models should be taken into account too... i.e. 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe principles.

I would be one of the first persons to argue about NOT getting too much caught upon TA and math to circumscribe human behavior limitations because we are not robots who are so damned rationale as to take out both free will, emotion and outrageousness - nonetheless, those preaching doom and gloom should be attempting to account for the BTC price dynamics that are attempted to be captured in the most persuasive BTC price prediction models of our time... either the models will a) become invalidated or b) they need to be tweaked in order to account for the new conditions. 

 b) would be much easier to accomplish than a) - yet my arguments against the doomers and gloomers is that their charts and arguments (to the extent any actual arguments exist) seem to be way the fuck less fleshed out than the various arguments and even underlying presumptions of the current above-referred to BTC prediction models.

Also, don't get me wrong regarding any kind of claim that I would be making regarding BTC being able to rise like a phoenix above the ashes.. because I doubt that bitcoin would be able to claim that level of non-correlation when shit is really going down.  So, maybe we do get into questions, too, regarding what level of "shit is really going down" are we into, and what level of incompetency do we presume that status quo interests are going to continue to fuck it up for themselves?

Of course, in our current "crisis" the various powers that be of financial institutions and governments are going to be pulling out all stops to engage in a variety of "creative" measures to attempt to preserve the existing system and their position within, and I really doubt that such level of Armageddon is imminent, yet maybe it is way too early to call, too... and maybe in 6 months or 1 year, I might appreciate those kinds of Armageddon claims more, if we do not experience a recovery,. at least somewhat more in bitcoin in that timeframe. 

I do believe that we are way too early to be calling the death of BTC, or such level of BTC correlation that we are going to just throw out current BTC price prediction models.. or the breakage of the current BTC price prediction models without at least some attempts to address those models within the outlining of the doom and gloom theoretical scenarios, and I have not seen any kind of convincing backing of the doom and gloom scenarios, so far.. but with the passage of more time, I might be willing to concede a bit more on these fronts if the data starts to back up the doomers and gloomers more.

i hope you turn out correct, but the way things are panning out, the coronavirus outbreak was the black swan none of us planned for.

the fed has now resorted to lending against stock and bond collateral. crazy stuff: https://www.ft.com/content/cf485398-689d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

masterluc's new target is below $2k. xxxx123abcxxxx is aiming below $1k. i may not totally agree with their doom and gloom yet, but a year and a half below $10k sure doesn't seem that crazy.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.   

Yes, I was talking about a glitch. Recently there was a glitch where the mempool hashrate dropped to zero. Could it happen to the price as well.

I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.

The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.

The reason I think there could be an extended period at low levels is because the nascent bull market was broken by the shape of the move from 13.5k down to where it is now.

That might need another crypto winter to repair. Might kill off a few alts for good, though.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.