Analysis - page 175. | Bitcointalksearch.org

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: masterluc on July 15, 2015, 12:57:42 AM

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm happy to hear this thread has helped you. Keep it up!

I don't worship or blindly follow you, but I value the information from you very highly. Keep it coming, please.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 09:17:06 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

+ 1.
Last year, we went up to $ 475 in october and back down to $ 166 in January. Perhaps it is possible we could do a B, head back down and still make it up to current levels by July (halving next year)?

I think we should try rule out as much as possible, and whatever we have left might be closer to the truth.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 15, 2015, 12:14:44 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on July 15, 2015, 12:02:08 PM

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: SmoothCurves on July 15, 2015, 12:02:08 PM

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

SmoothCurves

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 15, 2015, 11:35:33 AM

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A.

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes

And another showing the time for wave-(4)

The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.

I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A.

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes

And another showing the time for wave-(4)

The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.

BitcoinNewsMagazine

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1164

Quote from: SmoothCurves on July 15, 2015, 11:12:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 09:17:06 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?

Wave 2? RyNinDaCleM wave count is that the 1163 high in November 2014 completed wave 5 of a five wave impulse and we are now in a three wave ABC corrective phase. Contrast his count to masterluc who believes we are still in wave 3 of the initial impulse.

SmoothCurves

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 09:17:06 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

I've seen that chart before, but don't think it will play out like that. If there is a lower low to come it will happen before the halving next year, unless some major problem comes up in Bitcoin which will overshadow the halving. Litecoin has already shown what will happen when halving gets close, so things can get pretty crazy next year.

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

CoinBurner

newbie

Activity: 29

Merit: 0

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM
cut

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

I sincerely hope RyNinDaCleM is wrong this time Grin

anyway, it seems a perfectly reasonable count... A wave B ending at ~5-600 after summer 2016 could also fit in the block-halving-run market psychology, and then after that we could have the final wave C of Doom (or perhaps a truncated C to > 155?)

8up

hero member

Activity: 618

Merit: 500

Quote from: Tzupy on July 15, 2015, 08:42:35 AM

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

Possible but unlikely. Agree with him, that the next move is up to ~700 - after that correction to 400.

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: h3speros on July 15, 2015, 07:54:01 AM

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy

According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on July 15, 2015, 08:03:58 AM

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!

What do you mean, this time?

Xiaoxiao

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

The Golden Rule Rules

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!

h3speros

full member

Activity: 189

Merit: 100

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on July 15, 2015, 01:43:22 AM

I am trying to learn some basics of EW theory from here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
and would like to see if I am correctly interpreting the following statements.

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 14, 2015, 10:07:02 AM

wave 3 is invalidated if we hit a top ($370 - $600) and go down below $219 (estimate).

Quote from: masterluc on July 14, 2015, 10:10:17 AM

Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0

If I understand correctly you are both applying Rule 1 (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1), but at different degrees or levels. Luc is applying it at the highest level, i.e. the "Grand Supercycle," and Africoin ~~is applying it at the next level down, i.e. the SuperCycle.~~

No, Same level. in this case (below) $166 would be bottom and end of wave II (Grand). that is why i said dropping below $ 216 would invalidate.

Truth is, it wouldnt, sice wave I goes back to 0. Hence why master corrected me and said "Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0" ie (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1). perfectly within the rule.

StarenseN

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1362

Quote from: masterluc on July 15, 2015, 12:57:42 AM

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm really sorry to hear that.

To make it clear and to be honest. Back in 2012 with your insights you gave me the envy of beeing a professionnal trader back in the days. Which I am now, so I can't thank as much as I can. I just wanted to make it clear, that some people needs to learn the hardway by themself and should not take anybody else advice as granted.

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

I am trying to learn some basics of EW theory from here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
and would like to see if I am correctly interpreting the following statements.

Quote from: Afrikoin on July 14, 2015, 10:07:02 AM

wave 3 is invalidated if we hit a top ($370 - $600) and go down below $219 (estimate).

Quote from: masterluc on July 14, 2015, 10:10:17 AM

Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0

If I understand correctly you are both applying Rule 1 (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1), but at different degrees or levels. Luc is applying it at the highest level, i.e. the "Grand Supercycle," and Africoin is applying it at the next level down, i.e. the SuperCycle. One question I would have: in Africoin's analysis, wouldn't the start of wave 1 be in the 150-160 range from Jan 14, 2015? Or is it valid to place the start of Grand Supercycle Wave 3 (= the start of Super Cycle Wave 1) sometime in April-May-June 2015 even though this would be somewhere in the 210-220 range?

lebing

legendary

Activity: 1288

Merit: 1000

Enabling the maximal migration

Quote from: masterluc on July 15, 2015, 12:57:42 AM

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

Sorry to hear that Lucif. Know that you are not alone with the burden that comes with such an experience. Thanks for doing what you do.

Topic: Analysis - page 175. (Read 941582 times)