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Topic: Analysis - page 283. (Read 941596 times)

hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 501
December 27, 2013, 07:22:22 PM
Yeah, whats the point of that ZH article? Nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Has a lot to do with bitcoin in my mind. Is Bitcoin like gold or like stocks. I think like gold, we might see.


I thought this too until a buddy pointed out that right now gold is HEAVILY manipulated as the major banks attempt to restock their coffers ahead of the Germans taking delivery of all that gold we took in WWII.  Poor Germans don't realize we don't actually have the gold to pay them back.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/who-is-manipulating-the-gold-price
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/deutsche-bank-investigated-gold-manipulation-probe

zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
December 27, 2013, 04:36:39 PM
Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:

(bitstamp)

Time for a bounce back? What do you think?
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 27, 2013, 07:25:48 AM
Alright, post-game analysis (today's game of testing $830 gox!):

Looking at the charts for a minute or so today I couldn't figure out why ~$830 was the magic resistance number. Eventually there were 3 references I could find, one on high volume and two on low(er) volume.



The left-most point makes sense, there was huge volume there. The other two feel like hopeful aftershocks (one order of magnitude less volume each).

I'm still a short-term bear, which really just means I'm making a lot of dumb and/or useless trades that are stressing me out.


that line is not straight, those bots are at $840 and that top is at $830, just a remark, not necessarily important
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
December 26, 2013, 10:58:53 PM
Alright, post-game analysis (today's game of testing $830 gox!):

Looking at the charts for a minute or so today I couldn't figure out why ~$830 was the magic resistance number. Eventually there were 3 references I could find, one on high volume and two on low(er) volume.



The left-most point makes sense, there was huge volume there. The other two feel like hopeful aftershocks (one order of magnitude less volume each).

I'm still a short-term bear, which really just means I'm making a lot of dumb and/or useless trades that are stressing me out.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
December 26, 2013, 07:47:34 PM
Looks like "most pain" was to be inflicted in upward direction.

Upward movements have always caused me "most pain" - It's kinda weird, but when the price drops just after I buy I feel like ("Whew, I still have time")

---

but when price spikes, I feel a series of feelings that range from ... (" WOOHOOO! to the moon baby -sell a bit- umm, wait a sec, shouldn't there be a correction or something? -sell a bit more- OMFG! WHAT IF IT DOESN'T STOP??")  <- usually in that order.

At least that's how I feel about the portion of BTC that I choose to risk.

"Never risk more than you can afford to lose" cuts both ways I think.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 26, 2013, 01:00:08 PM
I understand bitcoin and I'm looking to get as many coins as I can with a given amount of fiat

Then put in orders @ $350 and wait what happens.
was looking for something more technical rather than glib

I was thinking about this.



At this moment a sell off enough to take some risk but uncertain whether we will get there soon (if ever). A main rule of trading is 'when in doubt, don't do anything'.

A lot of people here expect what you charted. Therefore it might not happen. Market tends to move in the direction of most pain.
A lot of people here expect > $1k and ATHs next month, and that the rocket will take off by the new year. So it's difficult to use this as an indicator of sentiment.

Many people were very sure that $576 was the bottom as well.

Yeah, that's true. We can't draw any reliable conclusion from that. Phoenix1 is right, though: we'll find out.

Looks like "most pain" was to be inflicted in upward direction.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
December 26, 2013, 12:00:54 PM

I don't have such sophisticated methods, but previous 2 times we tested the 780 level *Gox* the price took swift downturn. What I see for short-term is that unless the price breaks and holds above 780  then this consolidation period will continue, with perhaps retracement as low as around 610-620? (more likely price will fluctuate above and below that 700 level for some time again.)

Sure a retracement is possible and it very well could turn around right at the SMA. But personally I dont think so. I think we will break it and consequently see a huge push up to somewhere above 900 before it evens out again. Anyway its all short term shenanigans. Long term is what matters.

I very much hope you are right, but please don't discount the importance of these "short term shenanigans". If one is able to pay close attention to these short term fluctuations and act accordingly, there is a great opportunity to increase your holdings much better than just sitting on your coins and waiting. (also much risk of course, but I'm certain that most in this thread are intimately aware of risk assessment.)

*edit* 780 level has now been well and truly pierced, if price can hold for more than just a few hours, then yes, I think "somewhere above 900" is a feasible target. I'm not loading the boat just yet though...

*final edit* price now broke 800, luckily at virtex is still at 755. I'm now loading the boat, and the train is leaving the station, CHOO CHOO!!!

lol
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 26, 2013, 11:30:23 AM

I don't have such sophisticated methods, but previous 2 times we tested the 780 level *Gox* the price took swift downturn. What I see for short-term is that unless the price breaks and holds above 780  then this consolidation period will continue, with perhaps retracement as low as around 610-620? (more likely price will fluctuate above and below that 700 level for some time again.)

Sure a retracement is possible and it very well could turn around right at the SMA. But personally I dont think so. I think we will break it and consequently see a huge push up to somewhere above 900 before it evens out again. Anyway its all short term shenanigans. Long term is what matters.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
December 26, 2013, 11:15:37 AM

Doesn't "SMA 20" mean 20 day simple moving average?


Ya youre right I posted the wrong chart, I meant to post the daily. While it doesnt really matter, they are all moving averages, the daily is by far the most widely used.

Anyway, so if the daily does close above the SMA20 line, that for me essentially means that the bear has gone into hibernation.

Heres the correct chart:


I don't have such sophisticated methods, but previous 2 times we tested the 780 level *Gox* the price took swift downturn. What I see for short-term is that unless the price breaks and holds above 780  then this consolidation period will continue, with perhaps retracement as low as around 610-620? (more likely price will fluctuate above and below that 700 level for some time again.)
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
December 26, 2013, 11:12:21 AM
Anyway, so if the daily does close above the SMA20 line, that for me essentially means that the bear has gone into hibernation.

Hasn't worked last time apparently, what makes you think it will work this time? And if it doesn't does that mean the bear market must continue?

I think we all know the answer: Both things can happen either way and the price closing above or below SMA20 isn't that important.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 26, 2013, 11:06:56 AM

Doesn't "SMA 20" mean 20 day simple moving average?


Ya youre right I posted the wrong chart, I meant to post the daily. While it doesnt really matter, they are all moving averages, the daily is by far the most widely used.

Anyway, so if the daily does close above the SMA20 line, that for me essentially means that the bear has gone into hibernation.

Heres the correct chart:
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 26, 2013, 10:49:23 AM
Pushing SMA 20 for the first time in awhile...


Doesn't "SMA 20" mean 20 day simple moving average?

If so you "drew" that wrong, you're displaying sma 400 hours (2 hour candles * 200 = 16.66 days), no?

SMA 20 days looks like this on the 2-hour you used:



regardless of wether I'm understanding this correctly or not (am I?), it's almost broken.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 26, 2013, 10:26:03 AM
Pushing SMA 20 for the first time in awhile...
legendary
Activity: 984
Merit: 1000
December 26, 2013, 08:12:15 AM
Well, I guess if Bitcoiners think is has something to do with Bitcoin, then it has, just from psychology...as with Cyprus. If some nerd sells his BTC because of FED Tapering, well...I guess there is a connection then...
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 26, 2013, 06:54:59 AM
Yeah, whats the point of that ZH article? Nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Has a lot to do with bitcoin in my mind. Is Bitcoin like gold or like stocks. I think like gold, we might see.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 26, 2013, 06:54:10 AM

I'm sorry, I missed this. But in what way did the FED taper on 18th? 10% less QE or what?
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
December 26, 2013, 05:34:18 AM
mymymymyy i am very uncomfortable with the recent uptrend of btc price these last few days.

also could it be that new bitcoin 'bubble' (skyrocketing price) to be unleashed because of that US debt ceiling issue to be reassessed next febuary? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-usa-fiscal-idUSBRE9BF1FW20131219


No, that will be only actual, when it hits news (ie 2-4 weeks before deadline), it´s way too soon for that.

yes i know that's not causing anything yet. But could it be the next 'event' (after Cyprus & China pump) triggering a new bump in btc price? hence, should we be very concerned about it and anticipate it by buying in again like 2 weeks before 's**t hits the fan' in feb?

edit: also can't wait for that IMF proposal to become true (if ever)... http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/10/16/does-imf-plans-super-tax-of-10-on-all-eurozone-savings-to-solve-national-debt-problems/  Grin
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 506
December 26, 2013, 05:20:34 AM
mymymymyy i am very uncomfortable with the recent uptrend of btc price these last few days.

also could it be that new bitcoin 'bubble' (skyrocketing price) to be unleashed because of that US debt ceiling issue to be reassessed next febuary? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-usa-fiscal-idUSBRE9BF1FW20131219


No, that will be only actual, when it hits news (ie 2-4 weeks before deadline), it´s way too soon for that.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
December 26, 2013, 05:16:30 AM
mymymymyy i am very uncomfortable with the recent uptrend of btc price these last few days.

also could it be a new bitcoin 'bubble' (skyrocketing price) because of that US debt ceiling issue to be reassessed next febuary? http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-usa-fiscal-idUSBRE9BF1FW20131219
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