Topic: Analysis - page 286. (Read 941596 times)
Are we still in the Wave 5 of the downtrend or did we break out of it and start Wave 1 of a new uptrend?
i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it
have a nice day
have a nice day
Hello
I can see what you are trying to say, but since you are using a log scale, sorry to be be a bit abrupt but your fib can't be linear, so the .5 should look a bit more "off center".
Otherwise, it's a nice perspective to keep in mind.
Will see where the end of c/A (may be C/2 already but doubt it) land, with low volume and the ED it looks like very likely that wave 5 would be 1.61 of wave 1, slower and longer, so patience.
In my opinion there is too much enthusiasm to validate a supercycle yet. But a new low/potential double bottom will come soon.
Hello thread.
I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...
I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol) Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:
Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?
YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though.
I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:
Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.
I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.
Me too. When we were at 1000 On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)
Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!
--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.
Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:
1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)
2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...
I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...
I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol) Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:
Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?
YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though.
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.
I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:
Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.
I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.
Me too. When we were at 1000 On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)
Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!
--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.
Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:
1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)
2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...
Don't know about the others, but I really appreciate to get a miner's feedback. Thanks for posting.
Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.
really ?? i mean REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALY ??
did you just do that
??got some questions for you ...
1) do you compare 2 different type of data, price data and human population data, just because can be represented on a chart ?
2) do you compare apples vs orange just because both grow on tree's ?
3) do you compare human female vagina vs sheep vaginas just because are females genitals ?
4) some ppl hump sheep's now and then and we get sheeple so are you Scottish ?
price patterns are reflective of underlying dynamics that pressurize charting behavior of a variety of phenomena. hyperbole of my statement was meant more to illustrate it is as nonsensical to apply fib levels to an arbitrary end point for all known data of an instrument in log form nonetheless as it would be to decide here that the human population growth curve has arbitrarily reached its peak and thus warrants fib levels to provide indication of where we go from here. no I'm not Scottish, but you seem to be preoccupied with sheep in disturbing ways.
Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.
really ?? i mean REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALY ??
did you just do that
??got some questions for you ...
1) do you compare 2 different type of data, price data and human population data, just because can be represented on a chart ?
2) do you compare apples vs orange just because both grow on tree's ?
3) do you compare human female vagina vs sheep vaginas just because are females genitals ?
4) some ppl hump sheep's now and then and we get sheeple so are you Scottish ?
i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it
info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
Awesome, haha. info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
Is historic high to low fib on log scale really that relevant?...I mean, let's apply that to the human population growth curve in anticipation of a potential doomsday event, seems silly.
i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it
info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
.5 retrace! MY GOD MAN! Wait until the bears here this!
i made something in log(logarithmic) scale so some of you can think/ponder about it and other to flame about it
info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
info to read if you need to http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
have a nice day
Hello thread.
I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...
I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol) Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:
Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?
YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though.
I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:
Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.
I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.
Me too. When we were at 1000 On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)
Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!
--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.
Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:
1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)
2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...
I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but...
I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol) Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to:
Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?
YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though.
Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.
I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this:
Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.
I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high.
No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.
Me too. When we were at 1000 On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me)
Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!
--------
(*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.
Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:
1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)
2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips...
Interesting. We're a bit stuck, it seems. Price bouncing between EMA150 and EMA200, briefly broke through the former but retraced quickly.
I sort of like the picture of the last 24h, higher highs & lows, despite being somewhat overbought because of the quick recovery from 450/380 (mtgox/bitstamp). On the other hand, volume isn't playing along yet, so it could be a trap. Bid/ask is holding up very well, across all exchanges, that's another positive sign.
Adding it up, I see a slightly higher chance that we'll break through resistance upwards rather than drop again, but I wouldn't bet too much on it, I admit. Plus, the weekend is getting closer, and while the "weekend dip" is a questionable concept, it *is* easier on the weekend for a single large player to move the market in a desired direction (because of lower volume), so I'd be rather cautious now to make a large trade.
I sort of like the picture of the last 24h, higher highs & lows, despite being somewhat overbought because of the quick recovery from 450/380 (mtgox/bitstamp). On the other hand, volume isn't playing along yet, so it could be a trap. Bid/ask is holding up very well, across all exchanges, that's another positive sign.
Adding it up, I see a slightly higher chance that we'll break through resistance upwards rather than drop again, but I wouldn't bet too much on it, I admit. Plus, the weekend is getting closer, and while the "weekend dip" is a questionable concept, it *is* easier on the weekend for a single large player to move the market in a desired direction (because of lower volume), so I'd be rather cautious now to make a large trade.
wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.
With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?
I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?
I think he was saying that its going to graduate from a speculative investment to a real, widely used currency...
Money is always speculative - you don't own it for it's own value - but you speculate that in the future someone will exchange something valuable to you for it.
wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.
With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?
I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?
I think he was saying that its going to graduate from a speculative investment to a real, widely used currency...
wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.
With all due respect if you don't think BTC is a good speculative investment at this point in it's evolution then why the hell are you in this forum?
I can respect your opinion... why don't you respect the opinion of those here?
Try number 2 for the price to break support at 630. Second chance?
My guess is a ping (bounce off resistance).
Market depth shows lots of ask pressure and hardly any bid pressure. First 1000 btc on ask @ $645, first 1000 on bid @ $580.
http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html just fyi
Guess was incorrect, whales took over. Now to test 700. I have a really hard time seeing a breakthrough here. But I could be wrong again, because overstock.
FTFY
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/19/overstock-com-begin-accepting-bitcoin-2nd-half-2014/
this isn't even confirmed, plus they may not even act on it...
True, but it makes sense. They are looking for an edge vs the bigger guys and with all of the hype around bitcoin it makes sense for them to jump on the train to expand their market share and get free press. They have far more to gain than amazon or ebay, which is why I dont believe this is fake.
edit: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/12/19/overstock-com-to-accept-bitcoins-ceo-says-money-is-too-important-to-leave-in-the-hands-of-government-officials/?mod=MW_home_latest_news
Well, there is the confirmation.
wow..soon people gonna wake up to the fact Bitcoin isnt just some play money to speculate with anymore.
Gox 758. I think most of the resistance there is 775 (action from dec 6-8 and dec 16-17). Lines up with the wedge drawings from previous page of posts.
a break through 700 will trigger that diagonal.... let us see
Aaah, like an annoying little clockwork: bouncing off (from below) 1h EMA150. Come on little buddy, you can do it!
(not sure if it can. this post does not constitute financial advice
)Lol.
Considering the general technical climate we are in bouncing off is the bigger odds wouldn't you say... Since breaking through implies change.
Then, when has btc ever been surprising?
Aaah, like an annoying little clockwork: bouncing off (from below) 1h EMA150. Come on little buddy, you can do it!
(not sure if it can. this post does not constitute financial advice
) (sorry for another sloppy short post)
next target for me: ~750 (mtgox), ~710 (bitstamp). breaking through those, and staying above them, would be confirmation for me that we're done with this correction, at least short term -- doesn't mean we can't enter a longer bear market, but I wouldn't expect another very sharp drop then in the next days at least if we cross those.
Appreciate them even if they at short.
Well look at it try and try. Moving well I to 700s
I haven't been this sick since a stint with day trading in the 90s. I understand some TA ideas and having watched bitcoin swing its way through bubble pops I just decided I might swing trade (not day trade) this one.
Of course it so much easier said than done. I'm in the black about 30 percent so far and have much of the profit in USD. But I'm coin heavy again here... And I'm watching charts all day like an addict.
I'd quit while I was ahead except I don't know what quitting is exactly anymore.
Jump to: