Topic: Analysis - page 278. (Read 941596 times)

You mean this:



resembles this?

 
 

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

http://nl.wiktionary.org/wiki/de_huid_niet_verkopen_voor_de_beer_geschoten_is

My speculative analysis - in two days you will be certain that the bulltrap is in fact a big bull market! 

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream"

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all ) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

I tend to interpret it in terms of probability, or fuzzy logic. Beside the fact that it is a probabilistic process, and that there are many exchanges with slightly different patterns and fuzzy arbitrage opportunities, treating it as binary would also be too easy to manipulate.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

I'm wondering what it means too. Either it's broken or not.
I clearly see the former case.

Slightly broken? 

The Bitstamp wedge (bearish pattern):


Now the upper boundary slightly broken.  Not definitively - but there are many examples from the past that bearish wedges don't work in bitcoin. On the other hand the previous examples I remember are from the bullish runs and were probably the effect of new money entering the exchanges, now we are in a more bearish situation and a rally on weekend is not related to new money because there is no new money on weekends.

This is true… however there are so many early adopters who are now whales that TA becomes a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy. This next week, as previously mentioned, I believe will illustrate who will win the fight for whether we have a final capitulation or not. At this point my bet is on an anaemic bearish capitulation with many bear tears as it will not go nearly as low as hoped for before going up and not looking back. There is simply far too much movement with the financial world getting involved now to be ignored.

Its a valid point. The thing is that the things you list are more fundamentals than TA. I agree that fundamentals should be strongly considered.

You have to understand that TA being used in bitcoin charting is the same TA used for commodities and stocks.  To a certain extend TA charts human trading behavior and therefore can give a picture on Bitcoin trading and at times can be deadly accurate. However, as bitcoin is not a stock or commodity, TA is often grossly inaccurate in its predictions.

As a nooBTC I'd like the answer to this too. 

Nice points. Eloquently stated.

The thing is I don't think the TA so far has accommodated virality, the effect of bottlenecks at the exchanges, etc.
I've been making posts to this effect for a few days now.
It's getting to the point where I would be really very surprised if this bubble plays out anything like last summer. It's more like a pimple on the bubble to come!

Are (some of) you guys still trying to figure out which exact wave count to use to make sense of luc's "very long bear market" prediction?

Did it occur to you that, even under the assumption that TA works (and I *do* assume it does), sometimes the best (in the sense of: accurate and certain) result your TA can give you is "outcome unclear, try again tomorrow"?

What I mean is that to me it seems foolish to try to fit the current situation into a rigid mould. Yes, I am also aware of the historic precedent that ATH corrections simply don't finish that quickly. At the same time, you'll have a hard time explaining the current uptrend away. Maybe it won't last. But don't dismiss what happens because it doesn't fit what you expect.




Good analysis, in principle. Thanks for posting.

I see two problems with it though: (1) the "corrective" part is by now substantially outlasting the "trending" part. At some point one will have to concede that the "corrective" part becomes the trend. (2) Granted, volume is low, but even a cursory glance reveals that, in the past 10 days, volume has been substantially higher on the upward movements than on the downward movements (2h and 6h views on mtgox, and to a lesser degree, bitstamp, show what I mean quite nicely).

In summary: I remain "agnostic" about this correction. A lot of historical data suggests we'll be going down again in the near future, or at least won't continue going up until a final capitulation, but right now, there's quite a bit of evidence the current (upwards) trend has some staying power, and that we'll see a historic first of an extremely shortened post-ATH correction (i.e. much shorter correction than run-up).

With the way things are there is no clear short-term Chinese solution. Read yesterday's thread: A Chinese look at the situation in China

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-chinese-look-at-the-situation-in-china-397614

Based on the OP, my feeling is a moderately slow (several months) move into Bitcoin becoming a black market commodity in China. I have said that I think they won't ban it, but according to the writer, zhangweiwu, if the Chinese get over-enthusiastic then this could cause problems!

But this in no way means less interest in China.

We appear to be leading the prices more often now so that is something.

This is some serious business. Even though the positive trend looks compelling, I still don't think we're out of the woods. Not until the China situation is either resolved or cooling down. I know I am taking a big chance, but I just can't go against my gut feeling that another drop is imminent.

that thread was some short-term analysis predicting a rise from the low $700s to $800. that was the extent of that model. one can be "bullish" and "bearish" on different time scales, of course, which seems to be the misunderstanding here.