Author

Topic: Analysis - page 280. (Read 941596 times)

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
January 03, 2014, 10:04:24 PM
Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.

Doesn't bother me. Your theory just assumes we are in a bear market. However the downward trend lines have been broken and the upward trend lines have not.  Your wedge ends just below 1000 so surely we will have resistance at or before then that may well break the wedge downward.  But your chart could just as easily start with the wrong assumption. While fib levels may be similar to April, nothing much else is.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 03, 2014, 10:02:50 PM


This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
January 03, 2014, 09:51:23 PM
Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
How about the absence of a bearish pattern that coincides almost perfectly with the April bulltrap top level, that is between fib 0.5-0.618.
I don't know about other people but I pointed out similar rising wedges twice recently in this thread that both proved to be valid. I'm merely sharing my observations, not sure why it really bothers you that much that I'm throwing out a possibility that goes against your opinion.
sr. member
Activity: 303
Merit: 250
January 03, 2014, 01:14:51 PM
Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.

A downtrend?
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 508
January 03, 2014, 01:11:05 PM
Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
Perhaps what wouldn't fit is a reemergence of a bull market. Surpassing the top of the previous bull trap. Reaching new ATHs. Saying it's a bull trap on the way up isn't wrong until it... is.  I recall responding to a similar post ~ $1k (Gox) on the last bull trap.

I wouldn't be too sure of any position right now. I do know that being bearish at $1k made me a shitload of money. Being bearish at $830 cost me ~ $10/coin + fees. But I consider it worth it for the expected value at the time. Small losses are okay for an opportunity at big gains.

While I think there is upside left, I am unconvinced that this is a sustainable rally (read: emergence of bull market). Do you recall sentiment when Gox passed $1k ~12/9? I do.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
January 03, 2014, 12:47:55 PM

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

At the moment online wallets have some bad press but they are the future of Bitcoin for most people. They will also be regulated of course and be required to insure deposits.

FDIC or the like would make it a different story, but it all costs (and good luck getting the Fed to insure BTC deposits). Private insurance will likely be uneconomical for such a use unless those funds are available to lend or invest to produce revenue for the wallet site.
If some form of insurance can be had, then great!

I'm don't think they could ever insure your bitcoin properly. At best, they might offer to refund "equivalent value" in USD (or whatever the gov't fiat is in your country)
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
January 03, 2014, 12:38:09 PM


This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
January 03, 2014, 08:42:23 AM


This fits the bulltrap scenario
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
January 01, 2014, 03:10:11 PM
I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.
I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...

Yes, this is true and confirmed by the Mistery Chart post.
full member
Activity: 143
Merit: 100
January 01, 2014, 12:49:17 PM
I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Wow, I stumped lebing, the fundamental commander? Tongue

I am not a perma-bear! I am the voice of reason. A realist, if you will.. I try to counter every claim of over-the-top bulls that "bitcoin can only rise, because Bitcoin". If I were a perma-bear, I would be a thread starter of doom and gloom topics, spreading FUD flavored frosting on the bitcointalk cake. Smiley
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
January 01, 2014, 09:31:13 AM
We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.

To continue the positive uptrend we shouldn't be above $830 by Friday or we are too high. But this might look vaguely like a double top when it is actually more relevant as a continuation of the uptrend.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
January 01, 2014, 05:33:59 AM
I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.
I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
December 31, 2013, 04:05:35 PM
You
Play
To Win
The Game
Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.

the only winning move is not to play
newbie
Activity: 336
Merit: 0
December 31, 2013, 02:27:00 PM
You
Play
To Win
The Game
Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
December 31, 2013, 02:26:33 PM
Since when are considered the ones dumping 400-600 coins "big fishes"? This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

I doesn't matter how much you bought it for.

600 coins today are roughly half a million dollars.

So what you're telling me is that ~450K USD is noob play money, and that newbies like yourself trade that amount on a daily basis??

Are you serious?

Show me some logs of your orders with your 400K USD play money...

Don't be ridiculous. Of course 500 coins was nothing on Jan 1 2013; the same does not stand today.

Back then we had 5-8k walls as the normal, now it's a fraction of that. Times change.

hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
December 31, 2013, 02:21:11 PM
This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

Not quite sure where you are at, sorry for my misunderstanding. Do you mean you are waiting to buy in? What is your ratio of fiat to Bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
December 31, 2013, 01:21:42 PM
I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..





Not you - previous page - "bitcoin bear"...  Huh
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
December 31, 2013, 01:16:07 PM
I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.

Yes, this is very possible. A weak C wave into the 600's leaving all 400-500 orders unfulfilled and burning.

Bears may be hiding during this uptrend we got going on, but I know a lot of people are still waiting for those 400 coins.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
December 31, 2013, 01:11:23 PM
I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
One Token to Move Anything Anywhere
December 31, 2013, 01:08:54 PM
Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

Ups and downs yes... but a leg down no in my opinion
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