Analysis - page 282. | Bitcointalksearch.org

molecular

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Quote from: lebing on December 31, 2013, 07:59:56 AM

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

There's only so many monkeys. While I tend to "predict" a higher increase for 2014 also, it's not in any way a given that the rate of fresh monkey inflow is going to increase forever. It might well be that the bulk is over already (although I highly doubt that).

It all boils down to the question: "how many monkeys is it going to be in the end?".

I'm hoping for roughly 7 billion.

lebing

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Quote from: T.Stuart on December 31, 2013, 05:55:33 AM

Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:35:07 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 03:29:21 AM

Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:24:38 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) Tongue

if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.

Mikcik

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Guys im newi n this thread didnt follow it until now (didnt know about it), may i have a question... was all the charts and company for something... did you predicted anything right...? I see a lot of charts here for price prediction, the thread has around 50+pages... So was your predictions accurate? How many of them? (above 50%)?

T.Stuart

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Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:35:07 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 03:29:21 AM

Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:24:38 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) Tongue

if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

On average we will go up $10-$20 per day for the next 10 days or so (with ups and downs of course). Then quite a fair chance of some steeper climbing before consolidation in a few months.

The current line is going to develop into the over-riding trend for next year, meaning we arrive at between $4,000 and $5,000 by the end of 2014 (catastrophic news or bubble at that time notwithstanding).

Sounds facile but despite the noise (media as much as as TA) most things are pointing that way.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 03:29:21 AM

Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:24:38 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

yes, that is the general usage. i'm afraid i'm being a little optimistic here and referencing my bullishly notated charts (see my thread) Tongue

if everything pans out, $775 will indeed hold for that time frame.

samurai1200

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Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 03:24:38 AM

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower. hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

got it, thanks for the explanation. in these times of high volatility, i think its fair to call a 1 day to 1 week time-frame 'short term.'

arepo

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Activity: 448

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this statement is false

Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

fair retort. i suppose "micro-term" is more appropriate here. i was responding to Bright in context, while assuming they were referring to the slide that just happened in response to the failure to break the resistance they mentioned.

all i mean to say is this small move down doesn't strengthen the bearish case if the doji marks a micro-term bottom. we're still being held up by the mid-term support as long as we don't move any lower, hence why this fairly small price movement is very significant.

--arepo

T.Stuart

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Quote from: samurai1200 on December 31, 2013, 02:18:35 AM

Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 02:03:54 AM

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on December 31, 2013, 01:32:07 AM

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:

we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

Most likely scenario is a break through $825 by the end of the week then consolidation at this price

samurai1200

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Quote from: arepo on December 31, 2013, 02:03:54 AM

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on December 31, 2013, 01:32:07 AM

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:

we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin?

arepo

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Activity: 448

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this statement is false

Quote from: BrightAnarchist on December 31, 2013, 01:32:07 AM

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:

we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support.

--arepo

Voodah

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Quote from: BrightAnarchist on December 31, 2013, 01:32:07 AM

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

If we are going for new lows, 800~ is also the perfect number to double your coins.

BrightAnarchist

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$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

T.Stuart

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Quote from: arepo on December 29, 2013, 02:27:56 AM

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

--arepo

It depends on more factors now, but if you simply want to keep with the ratios of the last bubble the low ($450) has clearly been touched.

JustAnotherSheep

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Quote from: arepo on December 29, 2013, 02:27:56 AM

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

Yeah, it's still possible we'll make a final reach to 900-ish before going down but I see the ratios more as consistent approximations, and the top pinged nicely on fib level 0.5. I'd rather sell at 800 and risk missing some potential profit than hold if it does start to go down after that.

Quote from: arepo on December 29, 2013, 02:27:56 AM

the ratios are going to be different because of different market conditions (hint, investors were a little more rational this time around and formed a sensible double-top formation as opposed to bubble-top cusp). the shape of the pattern is scarily identical, however.

--arepo

If lucif taught me anything it's that the market is incredibly static in its predictability to the point where it defies common sense Cheesy

The condition for the pop was also different (we had not yet reached the parabolic spike of terminal fifth wave) yet the top-bottom turned out to have (approximately) the same ratio regardless.

But this is nothing more than guesswork from a noob sheep, we'll just have to wait and see if it holds true. If it does I will make sacrifice to the market gods for allowing me a glimpse of their infinite wisdom!

T.Stuart

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Quote from: zby on December 27, 2013, 04:36:39 PM

Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:

(bitstamp)

Time for a bounce back? What do you think?

It will take people a few days to get used to the idea but I think it's good.

arepo

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this statement is false

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on December 27, 2013, 09:39:36 PM

Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again Grin

based on the shape of the last bubble, we've still got some ways up to go before another reversal..

the ratios are going to be different because of different market conditions (hint, investors were a little more rational this time around and formed a sensible double-top formation as opposed to bubble-top cusp). the shape of the pattern is scarily identical, however.

--arepo

Viceroy

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lol, what good would a war do.. I told you we spent your money. breaking our legs isn't going to make it reappear... I mean it's not like we can just go dig it up somewhere...

www.airphotona.com/image.asp?imageid=5133&catnum=0&catname=All%20Categories&keyword=&country=&state=&pagenum=504

molecular

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Quote from: Viceroy on December 27, 2013, 07:22:22 PM

Quote from: molecular on December 26, 2013, 06:54:59 AM

Quote from: Macno on December 25, 2013, 10:23:48 PM

Yeah, whats the point of that ZH article? Nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Has a lot to do with bitcoin in my mind. Is Bitcoin like gold or like stocks. I think like gold, we might see.

I thought this too until a buddy pointed out that right now gold is HEAVILY manipulated as the major banks attempt to restock their coffers ahead of the Germans taking delivery of all that gold we took in WWII. Poor Germans don't realize we don't actually have the gold to pay them back.

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/who-is-manipulating-the-gold-price
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/deutsche-bank-investigated-gold-manipulation-probe

We do realize it. It's plain to see they don't have the gold. What should we do? Start a war against the US?

With Bitcoin being "like gold", of course I didn't mean "manipulated", I meant: be used as a flight-to-safety asset.

windjc

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on December 27, 2013, 09:39:36 PM

Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again Grin

Yes. Except for the little fact that various market conditions are always dynamic. That is why every major run up and sell off has not followed the same pattern. Expecting the market to behave like it did 6 months ago is probably going to disappoint.

JustAnotherSheep

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Speculation: The top of the major bulltrap has been reached based on fib retracement levels and top/trap-top ratio of previous bubble crash applied to this one, and now we should enter a period of decline. The same method worked for me to estimate bottom with relative accuracy, so I don't see why it shouldn't for this.

Time for me to take profit, see you all when we reach floor again Grin

Topic: Analysis - page 282. (Read 941596 times)